I’m writing this blog in the Star Alliance lounge at the Ezeiza International Airport, Buenos Aires. In about an hour, I’ll take a seat in the flight called “JJ 8019” bound for Rio de Janeiro. Then I’ll fly over to NY. Everything should have moved forward without any troubles. Yeah, it should have.
But something extraordinary has just happened: As I approached to the cheking-in counter of my favorite Brazilian Airline TAM, an officer at the counter rejected to give me a flight ticket by saying, “Senor, you need a visa. ”
Oooops!! What?? Visa?? For what?? I clearly declared, “As a Japanese citizen, I don’t need any visa to enter the US border!!” The officer and his female collegues sitting beside him didn’t believe this declaration of a former Japanese career diplomat. I slowly began to imagine my possible daily life as dessident without any visa back to Japan via the States…
Finally, it was made clear that the officer simply regarded “ESTA” as a kind of visa. That’s all. That was really an unforgettable last moment during my first visit in Argentina during the current round trip from Kiel, London, Rio, Argentina, NY, Washington D. C., Honolulu and then back to Tokyo/Narita.
The reason why I try to write posts on this blog even in English is exactly related to the round trip. During the trip for almost two weeks, I met lots of friends at every place I stayed. The problem was I had difficulties to exlplain what I really do professionally. Author? CEO/Representative of a think tank? That’s true, but the point is it’s not explained yet what I’ve been investigating since I voluntarily dropped out from the Foreign Ministry in 2005.
My think tank called “IISIA” analyses the so-called “global-macro”, that is to say, in- and outflow of capitals all over the world, while we’re keeping eyes on geopolitical risks. With that, the IISIA makes risk scenarios and gives them to its retail and corporate clients. Our scenario is quite different from similar ones by other institutes, because it’s always written from the view point of the Japanese.
Why Japanese? A good question. Every professional financier all over the world know (or rather “should know”) a massive capital flight towards the Japanese market has begun and continued since the beginning of the ABENOMICS. While other western countries started to rethink the shut down of their QE (=quantitative easing) either obviously or secretly, the GOJ and BOJ rush in the opposite direction. Under such a condition, why don’t you try to invest in the Japanese market, which you must have totally forgotten for almost 20 years?
In this blog, I’ll show some parts of global-macro analysis by the IISIA. The methodology is simple as follows:
-One of our closest alliance partners provides the IISIA with its stasitical analysis, produced by totally new algorism it invented and developed. The analysis shows exactly when “sea changes” would happen in the market.
-The IISIA tries to find with methods of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) what would happen then concretely. For example, the beginning of a “war” could cause dramatic fall of equity markets. Or a political decision for QE could lead to recovery of them. The IISIA always interprets the meaning of the above mentioned sea changes, or statistical movement in apparent manner.
-That doesn’t always mean “Statistical analysis goes forward, and OSINT follows.” in many cases, a talented professional OSINT researcher can even anticipate what will happen, even before statistcal analysis can imply that.
-Our main focus is the correlation between the Japanese market (and its index such as “Nikkei 225“) and external risks like geopolitical one. The analysis continues everyday except for when the markets are closed.
Let’s take an example. Our alliance partner sent me on October 9, 2013 the following statistical analysis on the future trends of the Nikkei 225:
20131007 -1 15148.4 over 1124.09
20131008 -1 15336.62 over 1483.3
20131009 -1 15096.02 over 1242.7
20131010 -1 15710.89 over 1857.57
20131011 -1 15600.9 over 1747.58
20131015 -1 14936.38 over 1083.06
20131016 -1 14970.76 over 1117.44
*20131017 -1 14428.14 over 574.82
20131018 -1 14399.09 over 545.77
20131021 -1 14210.43 over 357.11
*20131022 -1 14005.85 over 152.53
20131023 -1 14002.32 over 149
20131024 -1 13998.81 over 145.49
20131025 -1 13995.82 over 142.5
20131028 -1 13992.07 over 138.75
20131029 -1 13987.39 over 134.07
20131030 -1 13983 over 129.68
At this stage, I don’t go into the detail of the statistics. The important thing is that apparently shows us “something significant” would happen on October 17 and 22 and could cause dramatic recovery of the Japanese equity market.
But wait!! The US administration will fall into a default, if things won’t be changed, they say. Why a recovery of the Nikkei 225 in spite of that???
That’s the very point, with which we can start our discussions on “think the unthinkable future.” The future can be forseen, when we guide ourselves in accordance with appropriate methods.
“The Nikkei 225” will recover soon. That’s you shouldn’t forget at this stage. Stay tuned… And I’ll then fly over with my TAM to NY.