Finally, today has come: From today to August 9, I’ll enjoy this year’s summer vacation and leave the office.
However, don’t be disappointed. I’ll keep in touch with you online, wherever I’ll be abroad. Especially because the US and Japanese financial market are secretly about to soar sharply from around August 5, I’ll have to always be prepared to give you explanations through social media such as this official weblog in accordance with future changes in the global market and geopolitics.
Even though it’ll be quite obvious based on statistical analysis that the stock and commodity markets will rocket very soon, almost all the Japanese “analysts” predict the market would rather decline due to summer vacation.Don’t they really know what to say, or do they just pretend as if they don’ know it? I don’t know, but the truth will reveal sooner or later.
Anyway, have a nice weekend and see you maybe in the next week online.
NOTICE: Even during my summer vacation, our institute is per se open. Stay tuned.
Having got up, as usual, very early in the morning, I’m writing this short column in KYOTO. During four days’ stay here, I really experienced a series of things and gathered knowledge which is usually hidden from the public. For example, the traditional festival always held in July in KYOTO is called “GION-MATSURI”. Nevertheless, the name was intentionally changed, while the original had been “JION-MATSURI”. “JION” was related to “SION”: Zion, or “ציון”in Hebrew. In the ancient time, Jewish immigrants sought a safe haven in Japan and found it here in KYOTO. To keep memory on their own tragic destiny, their descendants have held the festival. From my viewpoint, this is exactly why more and more foreign tourists come to Japan these days. It’s not depreciation of JPY but Japanese unwritten history that really matters.
By the way… There is indeed a lot of things which is totally hidden from the public. One of them is results of quantitative analysis, which institutional investors always make use of to effectively make profits from investment. The latest one, for example, clearly shows the stock market is about to soar dramatically from August 5, while gold will follow from August 10. The Nikkei Index will reach even more than 23000 points. The point is, however, the DJI will show a similar pattern and continue to rocket all through the forthcoming August, while the Nikkei Index will abruptly collapse in the very end of the month.
Connaisseurs of financial market wonder why. Among possible reasons for that, I suspect ABE administration would suddenly come to an end. In fear of that the ABENOMICS would be stopped, investors would start to pull cash from the financial market. But the panic wouldn’t last so long, because irreversible inflation would be simultaneously kicked off. The then upwards trend of gold price would show us this new reality. In this regard, gold had to be massively sold on July 20 in Shanghai, in order to apply the Le Chatelier’s principle to the gold market: To make its price sharply go up, it must be let down beforehand.
Anyway, we’ll soon face hot August in the market. Even hotter than ever. Stay tuned.
Because I’m moving to my new domicile in the central city of Tokyo today, I just write down how I’m feeling right now. That’s exactly what Hermann Hesse once expressed in one of his most famous poems called “Stufen”:
Wie jede Blüte welkt und jede Jugend
Dem Alter weicht, blüht jede Lebensstufe,
Blüht jede Weisheit auch und jede Tugend
Zu ihrer Zeit und darf nicht ewig dauern.
Es muß das Herz bei jedem Lebensrufe
Bereit zum Abschied sein und Neubeginne,
Um sich in Tapferkeit und ohne Trauern
In andre, neue Bindungen zu geben.
Und jedem Anfang wohnt ein Zauber inne,
Der uns beschützt und der uns hilft, zu leben.
Wir sollen heiter Raum um Raum durchschreiten,
An keinem wie an einer Heimat hängen,
Der Weltgeist will nicht fesseln uns und engen,
Er will uns Stuf’ um Stufe heben, weiten.
Kaum sind wir heimisch einem Lebenskreise
Und traulich eingewohnt, so droht Erschlaffen,
Nur wer bereit zu Aufbruch ist und Reise,
Mag lähmender Gewöhnung sich entraffen.
Es wird vielleicht auch noch die Todesstunde
Uns neuen Räumen jung entgegen senden,
Des Lebens Ruf an uns wird niemals enden…
Wohlan denn, Herz, nimm Abschied und gesunde!
The life goes on. Don’t forget to enjoy it, and… have a nice weekend, guys.
This week, I’ve staying in North America. The main aim was to attend this year’s “International Economic Forum of the Americas” in Toronto. To be honest, I had no chance to visit this city during my diplomatic career. After having visited Montreal last year also on occasion of the IEFA, it has been really a pleasant business trip for me this time.
Looking back what I experienced there, several things now occur to me, while I’m now writing this column in Washington D.C. One of them is related to Japan’s alliance policy. The Japanese leadership loves to mention Russia is strategically essential for Japan, because Japan and she can attack PRC as potential enemy from both sides. This was, for example, exactly what PM Shinzo ABE told me during my courtesy call on January 2 in this year.
Nevertheless, the Japanese leadership never apply the same rule to the American continent. In order to keep US on its friendly alliance policy vis-à-vis Japan, Japan actually needs “the second card”, with which she becomes capable of threatening the former. Despite of such an obvious fact, Japan hasn’t sought this “second card” in the American continent after the WWII. Based on potential antagonism against US, Canada should be chosen as such, I think. The Canadian people never forget the US American neighbors attempted several invasions beyond their borders in the history. Japan should make use of this type of historical (potential) antagonism. Rethinking alternatives is urgently needed in this regard.
The second issue I thought of during the IEFA was Jewish influence in the Canadian society. This time, Shimon Peres, legendary former President of Israel, was invited as maim guest of this event. It was really striking for me to see how local participants reacted on Shimon Peres’ appearance and his words. Spontaneously, I felt that almost all the participants admired him as the loving model of modern Jewish leadership. Of course, nobody referred to massacres in Gaza by IDF and blamed domestic discrimination by Ashkenazi to Sephardi in Israel. One of participants next to me even asked me as follows: “How do you, the Japanese people, think about “OUR” president?” Although she immigrated from Israel to Canada 10 years ago.
During the conference in Toronto, I finally realized Canadian economy can’t move forward without Jewish presence in its society. Nobody mentioned it in IEAF, but I vividly felt it without being given an explanation expressis verbis.
“Potential alliance partner against US” and “Jewish influence”: These are the very factors the Japanese really don’t know, nevertheless, this week’s Canadian trip makes me understand this countries owe them very much. In this regard, it has been really enlightening.
Yesterday, I had an opportunity to visit Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It’s really so long ago that I visited there last time, since our institute usually has nothing to do with governmental affairs (=”G”-world).Nevertheless, since I’m entitled as a member of this year’s B20 to do advocacy for its process, I just did a round trip in Kasumigaseki, where Japanese ministries such as Ministry of Finance (MOF), Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and MOFA are located.
I don’t know why, however, it’s true that I suddenly felt as if I had choked when I entered the main building of MOFA. For most of my former colleagues in the ministry, it’s hardly obvious that something significant has emerged in the house. At least for me, it’ kinesthetically impossible to stay there for more than half an hour. Therefore, I tried to do advocacy work for B20 in a very short form and left there without looking back.
Of course, MOFA is merely one of the Japanese leading ministries, which were called “power houses” in 1980s. There IS indeed something bizarre in the house, which I can’t feel during visit to MOF and METI. On the way back to my office in Ark Hills, I was terribly puzzled and tried to find out the reason for such a difference.
Having felt that, I was invited by my former boss to a pleasant dinner in Roppongi. As far as I know, he’s one of the most successful Japanese diplomats in upper middle age and flying higher and higher in the house. In addition, he seems to be able to understand the difference between globalism (as another aspect of financial capitalism) and traditional diplomacy among nations. Being asked why I felt bizarreness in MOFA other than METI and MOF, he laughingly responded as follows:
-MOFA is forced to shut down to the public recently, because GOJ decided to join “General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA)” with USG. In accordance with this agreement, the headquarter of Japanese MOFA has to be strictly controlled by electrical means.
-In addition, the ABE administration tends to blame MOFA for any kind of leaks to the public. In order to run the administration successfully, Cabinet Minister SUGA rigorously controls every single in- and outflow of information essential to the government. To prevent from criticism in the administration, MOFA shut down quasi-free passage of the public to the house.
It’s nearly ten years ago that that I voluntarily left MOFA due to my emerging recognition that something significant will happen in the very near future. At that time, MOFA was the house where “freedom of speech” was de facto guaranteed, while Japanese diplomacy could still pursue its essential interests. Of course, the house was almost opened to media and those who are interested in contributing to the Japanese diplomacy. But the scene was dramatically changed, and there is no more MOFA I’ve known.
For my surprise, only MOFA deprecates B20 process, other than MOF and METI for example. For guys in MOFA, B20 is just an annex to G20, where governmental officials can make every single decision they want. Roughly saying, they think B20 to be a “peanut”, where private and business persons discuss whatever they like. Particularly towards 2016, the guys tend to concentrate rather on G7, because GOJ chairs its presidency and will hold the Summit meeting in Ise/Shima. Emerging markets, which are the majority in G20, should just follow whatever G7 of advanced economies decide.
From the viewpoint of genuine global business leaders, the world is to be turned upside down: G20 is extremely important because not advanced economies but emerging markets have financial powers as engines of economic growth. G7 is rather a “peanut”, since politics follows economy.
While my advocacy work for B20 process, I vividly feel there two different contexts between “G” and “B”. As long as guys are kept in Kasumigaseki, especially in MOFA, they can’t realize what the latter’s recognition vis-à-vis the financial capitalism and its future. Never ever. It’s awfully insignificant to try to make MOFA understand what globalism is. Its members unconsciously choke due to agreement with US, where openness of “B”-world is dominant. It’s really a tragedy which nobody is capable to end. Anyway, global elites can’ be generated in MOFA. That’s what I grasped during my yesterday’s homecoming which will never be repeated.