Monthly Archives: April 2020

Dear Great Leader Jong-un and His Beloved Sister.

Recently, western mass media abruptly reported Kim Jong-un, “Great Leader” in DPRK, seems to have fallen into a critical condition after a medical operation, which US President Donald Trump didn’t confirm officially. Media reports from ROK also denied such a possibility and insisted the “Great Leader” safely stays with his high-ranking officials in the suburb of the country.

As you might have been already well informed, I am an expert on DPRK issues since I was given opportunities to serve as Chief Desk Officer for Japan’s diplomacy vis-à-vis DPRK in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo (from 2003 to 2005). Based on experiences I obtained as “insider” of the Japanese diplomatic service, I’ve been further gathering information and intelligence on this matter. While professionally doing so as CEO of my own think tank on global affairs, I sometimes dream of a future scenario of DPRK and the Korean Peninsula as a whole. The following is my own “fictional” version of what would take place there in the very near future:
Kim Yo Jong, a beloved sister of the “Great Leader”, succeeds the highest power of DPRK, after Kim Jong-un disappeared from official occasions for unknown reasons. Of course, western mass media suspect of his death, but nobody could verify the authenticity of such a suspicion. Governments of major countries, particularly US Government, begin to imply their “wishful thinking” that the new leader would change the country’s policy from its traditional isolationism to engagement to the global community, since she is female and should have other way of thinking than her male predecessors.
The point is “something terrible” such as“millennium eruption of Mt. Paektu will happen soon after her inauguration. Rejecting any proposal from other major countries to give human assistance due to the unprecedented natural disaster, Yo Jong’s government will publicly appeal to ROK’s government under the leadership of President Moon Jae-in to combat negative impacts of this historical event together. President Moon Jae-in, who is well known as a de dacto supporter of DPRK in left wing of political scenes in ROK, will accept this offer without any reservations, and the two Korean nations will immediately get started with their collaboration to overcome widespread human suffering caused by the “millennium eruption”.

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In the course of time, the people living in the Korean Peninsula will sooner or later it’s quite “natural” that they will unite beyond borders, facing the successful collaboration after the natural disaster between the North and South. Facing such a psychological “Detante” among the ordinary people of the both nations, Kim Yo Jong and her government will make the second offer to hold a “free election” on the future of the Korean Peninsula with the South. There will be no reason for Moon Jae-in and his political colleagues to reject such a offer “for the sake of the entire Korean people”. As a result of the “free election”, which shall be well observed by third countries dispatched by UN, a new federation of the Koreans will be built up both politically and legally, of which the name could be “Koryo Federation”. A Janus-faced federation with both an “free and democratic” entrance (ROK) and “authoritarian and out-law” exit (DPRK).
Now, you may wonder who the winner of this game can be. My answer is definitely the South. The creation of this Korean federation will inevitably lead to a currency reform in the Peninsula. Looking back to the German Unification in 1990, the currencies (“Won”) of both countries shall be equally valued, while DPRK Won will be highly appreciated compared with ROK Won. Those who could succeed to obtain any financial assets in DPRK would immensely get earned from this currency reform, while the ordinary people in the South would be forced to offset all the cost. Having said that, the only “way-out” for the poor South Koreans will be to find out an appropriate third party to pay all the costs for the sake of the entire Korean people. Who shall be sacrificed?

DPRK_whitehouse

Let’s get back to the reality. Last year, I confidentially contacted Mr. Lee Chol, one of the “prominent” spymasters in Pyongyang and scenario write of all the current diplomatic events including DPRK such as bilateral summits between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, face to face in Dalian (PRC), while the leadership of a South Korean political foundation kindly arranged and attended the meeting. The spymaster, who is recently allowed to appear on a South Korean popular film on espionage thanks to his close friendship with Seoul, explained all the information political leaders of the nation such as Kim Jong-un and Yo Jong gathered in meetings with foreign counterparts, is being gathered to his team and analyzed. Mr. Lee Chol is a “shadow man” for Mr. Park Chol, one of the significant members of the DPRK mission to the White House in 2019. Mr. Lee said without any hesitation, “We thoroughly informed your Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide SUGA (Government of Japan) of everything DPRK expects to make happen”. In addition, he underlined Pyongyang is awfully fed up with the repeated request of USG for denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula. “What we sincerely need is to hold a trilateral summit among DPRK, ROK and Japan”, he insisted.
Another spymaster of ROK, of which a brother was educated even in Kim Il-sun University in Pyongyang, kindly informed me that the North and South had already agreed on a common and fundamental future scenario of the entire Korean Peninsula, at least on the level of intelligence agencies. From my viewpoint, the above-mentioned trilateral summit is included in this future strategic scenario.
Recalling of my own experience that the Japanese Imperial Household regards DRPK as “useless” from the highest viewpoint of Japan’s nation, I tried to persuade Mr. Lee Chol to convey my message that the “Great Leader” and his beloved sister shall be take into account any backlash if they won’t consider reconciliation with the Japanese Imperial Family. Obviously, the scenario writer of DPRK’s diplomacy had never thought of this matter, and I had the impression he correctly understood what I meant to say in this regard.
The history proves that Japan, my own country, is changed, whenever the situation in the Korean Peninsula turns out to be changed fundamentally. It’s the high time to see the history repeats itself, I think. Stay tuned.

Resurrection of Japan as Number One in the Post-Corona Phase. Why?

Even though the public opinion can’t fully catch up, some major countries’ governments officially decided they lift parts of tough regulations against further spread of COVID-19. Their so-called “experts” try to argue their countries have the peak of infection with the virus left behind, however, it’s quite obvious that this “X-Day” was pre-determined among these western major countries. From 16 April, they abruptly got started with discussion about reconstruction of national economies and societies in the Post-Corona phase. The statistics they often mention are, again, not fully persuasive to people on the street, therefore, they proceed but only cautiously to “normality” of their daily life.

In my country, Japan, the situation is completely different. Despite the fact she is one of the biggest neighbor countries for PRC, the very starting point of panic due to COVID-19, Prime Minister Shinzo ABE and his government has just announced a state of emergency for not only some prefectures such as Tokio, but the whole country. The ABE administration is being harshly criticized because of its typical Japanese “Too-Late and Too-Little” measure that it will provide in principle all the Japanese nationals with 100,000 JPY (hopefully very soon). Even though there is (and from my viewpoint: “won’t be”) no “overshooting” in terms of the patients infected with COVID-19 here in Japan, Japanese mass media tend to lead the people to join the discussion on how to enjoy their life “With-Corona (not Post-Corona)”, which I personally ridiculous. Only the stock market in Tokio, which is affected rather by trends of the global market, sharply begins to soar these days in spite of the accelerated man-made stagnation of the economy and society here in Japan.

Getting back to the issue on the “Post-Corona” phase, my institute, IISIA, analyzes at this juncture that Japan will be picked up and highlighted both financially and socially by a process of elimination from now on in the global community. Obviously, nobody and no singly major world-class think tanks (or even “Ian Bremmer” of Eurasia Group) insist such a thesis to the public, nevertheless, leading experienced investors related to the Japanese financial market both secretly and unanimously reach the same conclusion and begin to take appropriate measure to make the highest profits from such an unprecedented trend of the world history. To be honest, they imagine Nikkei 225 index would surpass even 50,000 JPY (without such currency manipulation as GOJ did from 2012) if they’d be lucky enough. Well, this is still a rumor in the market, which can, however, turn out to be proven in the very near future, I firmly believe.

Why will Japan be highlighted in the Post-Corona phase? According to the analysis of IISIA, there are three points we have to pay attention to:

*Abrupt crash of crude oil price, which Japan, a country heavily relying on imported energy resources, takes advantage of, as she successfully did from 1987 to 1990 (“Heisei bubble economy”).

*Quantitative easing of immense scale in- and outside Japan, which Japan takes advantage of, according to the successful model in the late 1980s.

*Process of Elimination works, as Japan can be regarded as “safe haven” with both relatively stabilized public healthcare (extremely low death rate due to COVID-19) and highly developed economies under the “rule of law” compared with US, Europe and China. Other than global mass media, the leadership of WHO is now arguing discretely in the house that the second wave of pandemic with global scale will attack the human beings from 2022 to 2025, conditioned that fundamental change of global public healthcare wouldn’t take place immediately. From now on, it’s not money but our own life that really matters. And thanks to process of elimination tested by the affluent people particularly in PRC, they will rush into Japan’s territory as soon as the border will be opened.

This means, of course, the end of the previous trend of “globalism”. The Post-Corona phase is simultaneously the era of Post-Globalism. In this new era, the countries which have adapted themselves to globalism successfully and profitably as well, will be abandoned and disregarded, while another country is suddenly prioritized, which is rather incapable of swift adaptation to financial capitalism and has incurred ridicule from the rest of the world. That’s exactly Japan that unintentionally succeeded to protect against immense risks caused by globalism such as COVID-19 pandemic.

JapanAirlinesChart20200418

Having said that, you, dear readers, never agree with me on this matter, I’m afraid. It’s OK, since our institute dedicating itself entirely to making future scenario of Japan and the global community, is quite familiar with such an initial refusal to the future reality it sometimes picks up. Only facts to be realized after our forecasting can persuade you. Let’s see… but don’t forget to buy some shares of Japanese airlines, wings of “Pax Japonica”. Stay tuned.

Japan’s Imperial “Cain and Abel”?

Every time I finish to write down articles posted to this official weblog, I used to inform my friends and colleagues working for world-class think tanks. Thinking of that, I would say, as long as you stick to the surface of political and economic realities in the global community, you can never become aware of the fact not US presidency but Japanese Imperial Household has immense influence to the world order. At this juncture, I believe, however, you can’t understand it and tend to strongly doubt Japan’s Imperial Family holds such a power vis-à-vis the entire world. Well, let’s take a look at the following picture taken on the occasion of US President Barack Obama’s state visit to Japan. Who bowed to whom?

obama_emperor

In this regard, a significant incident is taking place in Japan. An incident, which has much immense impact than even COVID-19 virus and its infectious diseases we’ve been suffering from. His Imperial Highness Prince Akishino, younger brother of the current Japanese Emperor (His Imperial Majesty Naruhito), may not hold his own inaugural ceremony to Imperial Heir on 19 April of this year. The reason is, of course, the on-going unprecedented spread of COVID-19, for which Government of Japan recently declared a state of emergency as I mentioned herewith beforehand.

The point is we wouldn’t have any Japanese Emperor in case of unforeseen incident to H. I. M. Emperor Naruhito, as long as the ceremony won’t be officially held. Since the then Emperor Akihito abdicated, such a vacuum of Japan’s Imperial Authority emerged last year. This time, almost the same vacuum will repeat to appear due to the postponed ceremony of Imperial Heir. From my viewpoint, as a circumstantial evidence of this situation’s importance, H. I. M. Emperor Naruhito donated his own “private” money to humanitarian activities to support children infected with COVID-19 in Japan (A preventive measure against any future challenge to his authority?).

The worst scenario could include the possibility the authenticity of His Imperial Majesty’s existence would draw extremely negative attention due to either event or incident which would be take place in the very near future. Once such a negative trend against Japan’s current Emperor’s authority would emerge, this could be spread and shared by social media in the Japanese society at first, and then to the whole world. At the next stage, the people will try to find out another “appropriate” one as the next holder of Japanese Imperial Authority, but for a while, in vain, because H. I. H. Prince Akishino’s inaugural ceremony to Imperial Heir is, as I touched upon above, being suspended. And H. I. M. Emperor Emeritus Akihito is just the former one and may not come back to the throne any more. An unprecedented, historical vacuum of Japan’s Imperial Authority will suddenly appear, potentially, from 19 April, 2020.

Again, this will give an immense impact to all the other parts of the world, including US and Europe, since nations other than Japan heavily rely on good will of Japanese Imperial Household in terms of provision of its own private asset beyond constitutional restriction.

Well, let’s see what will take place due to this embarrassing postponement in Tokyo. I’m terribly concerned about what will trigger historical and decisive turmoil around Japan’s Imperial Household, which could copy the legend of “Cain and Abel” in the Old Testament. Stay tuned.

Tomorrow:Emergency Declaration to Be Released in Japan.

mask_shinzo_abe

Mr. X, our deep throat in the Japanese INTEL world, just informed me kindly that Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe will eventually make up his mind tomorrow (6 April, 2020 (JST)) to release an emergency declaration against COVID-19. If it’ll be the case, major cities in Japan, particularly Tokyo, will be “locked down” so that the on-going spread of the infectious disease will be effectively stopped.

The point is ONLY Shinzo Abe is both legally and politically entitled to make the ultimate decision. Well, let’s see. Stay tuned.

(*For those who wanna get informed of much more related detail of this issue and other future trends in the market and global community: Check out my latest voice report (released on 3 April, 2020) with this URL (Unfortunately only in Japanese)

音声レポート「週刊・原田武夫」最新号(2020年4月3日号)はこちらをクリックしてお聞きください(日本語のみ)

We Need Freedom of Movement (URGENTLY).

I suppose almost all of you read this article at home, since governments of major countries ordered you to stay home as preventive measure against COVID-19. Being forced to do so, you must feel rather nervous and frustrated to see the situation seems to never have become better than before. Actually, the wide spread of COVID-19 virus is accelerating, and even “experts” can’t exactly forecast when it will come to an end.

From my viewpoint, what we shall do is to be much more realistic in this regard. The crisis of“Black Death” in 14th Century continued from 1348 to 1371 (23 years!), and it killed one fourth of the then whole population in Europe. This unprecedented infectious disease led the people to change their mindset, thoughts and behavior entirely, which is now called “Renaissance”.

The point is who survived despite the “Black Death” and enlarged their powers in the new era? In this context, we shall remember the name of “House of Medici”, which brushed up the European financial system from the medieval and succeeded to acquire its own dominant position. How could the House’s members save their life?? The answer is quite simple: They just moved to other places as soon as they were informed affected individual of “Black Death” was found near their tentative residence. In short, their policy was “Go away and save life”.

Having said that, the above-mentioned current governmental policy against COVID-19 virus can’t fully persuade me to stay at home. Of course, all of us shall follow the authorities’ instruction for prevention in our daily life, such as “washing hands carefully” and “gargling thoroughly”. However, nobody can’t guarantee the place where you’re right now isn’t polluted with the virus. And as long as no single appropriate vaccine will be produced and distributed to the public, you always face the same risk, wherever you are (Sorry, but this is the fact you can never deny.). The only way out for you is just to go away from the place where affected persons are found, to another place where the risk seems to be minimum (at least at this juncture). All the governments can’t accept this prudence of House of Medici “Go away and save life”, since this surely cause massive waves of migrants even beyond borders and inevitably collapse of nation states. Thus, the governments repeat their “noble lie” that you shall stay at home to prevent from further spread of COVID-19.

If the global leadership and your governments’ leaders really want to suppress the pandemic most effectively, they shall focus on not such a pseudo-physical measure but immune system of human body. To your surprise, almost nothing about human immune system is medically known, and we’re urged to both globally and jointly take appropriate measures to elucidate its nature. To make it happen, a comprehensive genome analysis in terms of both COVID-19 virus and affected individual’s bodies has to be done immediately by using ultramodern supercomputers. That’s why I recently appealed to the public Japan-made supercomputer should be highlighted in this regard. When you would succeed to find out how to enrich immunity of human body completely, you don’t need to stay at home in principle, and can instead go away to wherever you like. The current quarantine policy shall be understood only as a tentative one.

There is another reason of immense scale for following “Go way and save life” principle, particularly in East Asia. Recently, the expert committee of Government of Japan released its analysis on future eruption of Mt. Fuji, the biggest symbolic mountain in Japan, which almost stunned the Japanese public opinion. Through this channel, I want to rather highlight it not Mt. Fuji but other big mountains such as “Mt. Paektu (백두산/长白山)” in DPRK that acutely matters according to media reports since the last year. Once the volcano would erupt abruptly, it would discharge ten times amount of volcanic ash by the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in 2010 in Iceland (“Millennium Eruption”!!). The eruption as such won’t cause disaster, but unprecedented crisis may take place afterwards. Heavy rain on facilities of power generation and transmission with immense amount of volcanic ash immediately leads to total “blackout”. And sudden lackness and extreme shortage of electricity stop almost all the activities of modern civilization. And you’re forced to choose either to stay at home without electricity, or to go away and save life by finding out a place where you can get connected to sufficient electricity.

Paektu_Mountain

Map-showing-the-location-of-Paektu-volcano-and-associated-tephra-fallout-and-gas-yields
(Kayla Locavino et al)

Unprecedented crisis one after another. I firmly believe it’s the high time for all of us to contemplate how we should change our previous mindset produced with “modernity” after Renaissance. Only when we’ll make up our mind to get rid of one thing, we’ll be able to get a new and appropriate one. What instead of “modernity”? That’s the ultimate question we have to urgently solve together. Stay tuned.