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It’s time for teaming up, Ms. Yellen!

After having enjoyed yesterday’s fantastic concert by the NYP in the Arvin Fisher Hall, I’m now staying in the Washington Hilton. Usually, I choose “Westins”, wherever I stay on the globe. However, “Westins” are said to be fully occupied in Washington for unknown reasons. Although Hilton is quite unfamiliar to me, I made up my mind to choose a “Hilton” to stay. Let’s see whether that’s a good choice or not.

Before referring further to my analysis on global macro, I must say “Thank you very much!” to all my friends outside of Japan, to whom I introduced this new blog in English either per facebook oer via eMail. The statistic gathered by the wordpress shows they are so friendly to me that they really took a look at the blog. Thank you again and please enjoy further the posts.

Anyway…

Nikkei225_20131010

As I predicted in the last post, the Nikkei obviously started to jump up. But don’t get crazy now, since this is simply the beginning of the whole story. My closest allaince partner I mentioned at the last time (Let’s call him “HKD” from now on) has just shown his statistical analysis to me, which implies the “true drama” will begin at October 22. Maybe, a sort of “sea change” will be seen from October 17, he added.

From my view of OSINT analyst, you should now keep eyes on the following events and factors:

-Even though the US President Obama had refused to negotiate with the GOP in any ways, he changed his mind and met the leading congressmen of the Republican one by one since yesterday, without making clear “why now”.

-Ms. Yellen was finally chosen as the next FRB boss. People just expect the current QE wouldn’t be changed drastically, since Ms. Yellen is politically responsible for the QE policies with Mr. Bernanke.

– Based on a naive berief that these political decisions in the US would “make the world better”, the stock markets such as one in Japan (see the above mentioned Nikkei 225) has dramatically risen worldwide since then.

-Besides that, it’s also important to notice the new round of the Six party talks vis-a-vis Iran will hopefuly begin next week in Geneva/Switzerland. That is quite good for reducing the ME geopolitical risks, but not good for the Israelis, which fear to be abondaned by the Obama administration.

-The critical “moment of the truth” should come in the second week of the forthcoming November because of a US-Russo joint project: The Peace Conference for Syria. However, let’s imagine what would happen if it would fail. Stay tuned.

-And don’t forget President Kirchner of Argentina. Her government just decided to continue its fatal fight against US vulture funds, which have claimed full payments of Argentina’s bond in the time of its default in 2002. The US supreme court had indirectly decided not intervene to this matter. Of course, Ms. Kircher can continue the fight as long as she wants.  The point is rather whether foreign investors can tolerate such a meaningless political soap drama. In this regard, “the moment of the truth” will come as soon as they want.

-Last but not least, a fresh news ”from the NASA”. In the internet sphere, a rumor has traveled quickly, which points out “NASA will announce a big news on November 13 that will cause a significant impact on the whole world.” What is it??

I don’t want to rely on conspiracy theories, please don’t worry. But if I were President of the US, I would also postpone evey important decision to be made till the whole situation will be made clear, as Obama now seems to do. Again, the schedule of “the moment of the truth” was just rescheduled for later, maybe the second week of November, I suppose.

When the stock market rebounds dramatically without any obvious reasons, we must prepare for its dramatic fall which will just follow the rebound. This is related to the so-called “Le Chatelier’s principle“, which can in fact be applied to everything on the globe. I will try to explain later on what it is.

Don’t forget “Tsunami always comes after euphoria”. And now that the euphoria has just begun in a short term, you should know what to do right now.

US visa required? NO!!!

cropped-2013101.jpg

I’m writing this blog in the Star Alliance lounge at the Ezeiza International Airport, Buenos Aires. In about an hour, I’ll take a seat in the flight called “JJ 8019” bound for Rio de Janeiro. Then I’ll fly over to NY.  Everything should have moved forward without any troubles. Yeah, it should have.

But something extraordinary has just happened: As I approached to the cheking-in counter of my favorite Brazilian Airline TAM, an officer at the counter rejected to give me a flight ticket by saying, “Senor, you need a visa. ”

Oooops!! What?? Visa?? For what?? I clearly declared, “As a Japanese citizen, I don’t need any visa to enter the US border!!” The officer and his female collegues sitting beside him didn’t believe this declaration of a former Japanese career diplomat. I slowly began to imagine my possible daily life as dessident without any visa back to Japan via the States…

Finally, it was made clear that the officer simply regarded “ESTA” as a kind of visa. That’s all. That was really an unforgettable last moment during my first visit in Argentina during the current round trip from Kiel, London, Rio, Argentina, NY, Washington D. C., Honolulu and then back to Tokyo/Narita.

Anyway…

The reason why I try to write posts on this blog even in English is exactly related to the round trip. During the trip for almost two weeks, I met lots of friends at every place I stayed. The problem was I had difficulties to exlplain what I really do professionally. Author? CEO/Representative of a think tank? That’s true, but the point is it’s not explained yet what I’ve been investigating since I voluntarily dropped out from the Foreign Ministry in 2005.

My think tank called “IISIA” analyses the so-called “global-macro”, that is to say, in- and outflow of capitals all over the world, while we’re keeping eyes on geopolitical risks. With that, the IISIA makes risk scenarios and gives them to its retail and corporate clients. Our scenario is quite different from similar ones by other institutes, because it’s always written from the view point of the Japanese.

Why Japanese? A good question. Every professional financier all over the world know (or rather “should know”) a massive capital flight towards the Japanese market has begun and continued since the beginning of the ABENOMICS. While other western countries started to rethink the shut down of their QE (=quantitative easing) either obviously or secretly, the GOJ and BOJ rush in the opposite direction. Under such a condition, why don’t you try to invest in the Japanese market, which you must have totally forgotten for almost 20 years?

In this blog, I’ll show some parts of global-macro analysis by the IISIA. The methodology is simple as follows:

-One of our closest alliance partners provides the IISIA with its stasitical analysis, produced by totally new algorism it invented and developed. The analysis shows exactly when “sea changes” would happen in the market.

-The IISIA tries to find with methods of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) what would happen then concretely. For example, the beginning of a “war”  could cause dramatic fall of equity markets. Or a political decision for QE could lead to recovery of them. The IISIA always interprets the meaning of the above mentioned sea changes, or statistical movement in apparent manner.

-That doesn’t always mean “Statistical analysis goes forward, and OSINT follows.” in many cases, a talented professional OSINT researcher can even anticipate what will happen, even before statistcal analysis can imply that.

-Our main focus is the correlation between the Japanese market (and its index such as “Nikkei 225“) and external risks like geopolitical one. The analysis continues everyday except for when the markets are closed.

Let’s take an example. Our alliance partner sent me on October 9, 2013 the following statistical analysis on the future trends of the Nikkei 225:

20131007    -1    15148.4       over 1124.09
20131008    -1    15336.62     over 1483.3
20131009    -1    15096.02    over 1242.7
20131010    -1    15710.89    over 1857.57
20131011    -1    15600.9       over 1747.58
20131015    -1    14936.38    over 1083.06
20131016    -1    14970.76    over 1117.44
*20131017    -1    14428.14    over 574.82
20131018    -1    14399.09    over 545.77
20131021    -1    14210.43    over 357.11
*20131022    -1    14005.85    over 152.53
20131023    -1    14002.32    over 149
20131024    -1    13998.81    over 145.49
20131025    -1    13995.82    over 142.5
20131028    -1    13992.07    over 138.75
20131029    -1    13987.39    over 134.07
20131030    -1    13983        over 129.68

At this stage, I don’t go into the detail of the statistics. The important thing is that apparently shows us “something significant” would happen on October 17 and 22 and could cause dramatic recovery of the Japanese equity market.

But wait!! The US administration will fall into a default, if things won’t be changed, they say. Why a recovery of the Nikkei 225 in spite of that???

That’s the very point, with which we can start our discussions on “think the unthinkable future.” The future can be forseen, when we guide ourselves in accordance with appropriate methods.

“The Nikkei 225” will recover soon. That’s you shouldn’t forget at this stage. Stay tuned… And I’ll then fly over with my TAM to NY.