Monthly Archives: January 2017

Unless Xi Jinping Will Make a Decision.

china_warship

As I correctly predicted in the previous post, the global stock market has just begun to rocket again. The Dow Jones Index in NY went up even over 20,000 points this week, while the Japan’s Nikkei 225 obviously rebounded. Nobody can doubt anymore the fact that a new sea change has been emerging in the global macro, which tends to remain until the spring ahead.

Nevertheless, I want to take this online opportunity to warn you of one thing. It’s not Trump but rather Xi Jinping in PRC that matters.

Why? According to classified information delivered to me from a certain intelligence source, the Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping would take advantage of the current transition of presidential leadership in the States so that the it can testify how vulnerable the Trump administration is vis-à-vis military crisis particularly in East Asia. Based on what I’ve been informed there could be the four options as follows in this context:

 

– The Chinese “SEALDS” will abruptly occupy the Senkaku Islands in military uniform.

-The Chinese “SEALDS” will abruptly do the same thing but in pseudo-civil clothes.

-The Chinese warships will demonstrate its military capability in the Taiwan Strait.

-The Chinese warships will get started with artillery bombardment vis-à-vis warships of western countries such as US.

Now, you may wonder whether the Chinese President would go mad without any reasons? Of course, no. There is a very reason for his brinkmanship in both diplomatic and domestic contexts. While heading to the forthcoming congress of the Chinese Communist Party in autumn, Xi Jinping seems to feel increasing political pressures from his antagonists. Because he hasn’t had any experiences in real military battlefields, the majority of military leaders of the People’s Liberation Army never stop the criticism that their political leader isn’t capable of crisis management whenever something significant will happen. Thus, Xi Jinping has to show his “brilliant” capability to lead the nation successfully even in a military crisis without serious military damages. For that, he urgently needs a well-planned mini-crisis in East Asia, which he can take advantage of as a “talented negotiator” vis-à-vis the States.

Once Xi Jinping would really make such a decision for his own sake, the global financial market would get involved in serious volatilities again. One of my deep throats who are deeply connected with both Chinese and US INTEL kindly suggests that the risk would last at least until February 19. Well, let’s see what will take place within and beyond the Chinese Lunar New Year. Stay tuned.

At the Dawn of the Forthcoming Chinese New Year.

falling_banknotes

While I’ve been checking how actively our clients react on the products we released a few days ago, I have the feeling they think the recent upward trend of the financial market to be ended. Plus, they might be in fear of tightened regulations of the Chinese financial authority, particularly vis-à-vis Bitcoin.

Well, taking this opportunity, I’d say “NO. You’re wrong.” Every serious institutional investor is quite aware of the fact the market is about to soar again from the very end of this January. Meanwhile, the market pretends as if it totally depends on volatilities which seem to be uncontrollable.

However, as one of the leaders from the House of Rothschild reportedly said, the world history is being made not in a party but in a battlefield where everyone is enthusiastically trying to survive. It’s also the case for the present time.

In addition, a typical Japanese anomaly should be taken into account. While the Diet is held, the GOJ is urged to take “appropriate” measures to make the Japanese stock market go up. The next session will get started on January 20. I hope you’ve already understand what I mean to say herewith.

Well, the question is “to decide, or not to decide right now”. Wish you a great success in the midst of the Chinese New Year ahead, which usually makes the global financial market extremely exciting (BTW, Bitcoin, which sharply fell due to the “spot check” by the Chinese authority, has already started to rebound.). Good luck.

 

The Year of Cryptocurrency Has Just Begun.

bitcoin_usdcny

While I enjoyed refreshing myself both physically and mentally in a seaside retreat in Kahala, Hawaii, till the New Year, a new trend abruptly broke out in the global market. “Bitcoin”, the leading cryptocurrency, rocketed, and its price reached even more than 150,000 JPY per piece, which is much more than the historical record of 128,000 JPY. No one can deny any more a new era has just begun in the market.

“Seeing is believing”: In the last April, my institute officially announced the following recommendation to its closest clients in a discreet manner. “Think about including one of the emerging cryptocurrencies in your asset portfolio. Don’t hesitate to invest to Bitcoin, whereas you can’t understand what “block chain” actually means.” Some clients of mine immediately followed us, while the others did not do so by arguing, “Well, I know cryptocurrency can be used these days in the market, however, its technological advancement isn’t secured yet.” In the course of time, a trading house of cryptocurrencies in HK was broken and the enormous amount of Bitcoin was stolen by an unknown hacker. Those who had opposed to my recommendation became much more confident than ever of the vulnerability of cryptocurrencies.

And now, Bitcoin soared afterwards. By saying that, I don’t mean to say I’m right and these frightened clients are doomed to fail because of their incapability to accept something new and innovative. What I want to underline herewith is the importance for all of us to get to know the logic I followed to announce the above shown recommendation for Bitcoin.

Nothing around cryptocurrencies is clear: We don’t know who invented the brand new technology called “Block Chain”. Nobody knows who’s the guy, “Satoshi NAKAMOTO” that is supposed to be the inventor. In addition, we never know what backs cryptocurrencies, e. g., Bitcoin, except for the “belief”, or rather “rumor” that they are based on mutual confidence of those who make use of them.

Nevertheless, I myself found the following two phenomena extremely remarkable: First of all, a series of small but significant events were held in the City of London several years ago to support the geeks of cryptocurrencies. Secondly, the government of PRC released licenses to five companies to start their eCommerce business with cryptocurrencies in the last spring. As usual, I spontaneously combined these phenomena with each other to “think outside the box”. This way of analogical thinking always leads me to a new world where I can enjoy something new and innovative. It was also the case for this time. My tentative conclusion was “The City of London is about to back the cryptocurrencies, which the Chinese consumers will rush to use for unknown reasons. Based on such a sea change in the global market, the cryptocurrencies will be broadly accepted in the financial market.”

Again, “Seeing is believing”. As far as the Chinese mainland market is concerned, the local investors has been obviously seeking a technologically secured “safe haven” and finally found it. That’s exactly what we discussed so far: “Bitcoin”. The trend is irreversible, and the Bitcoin will begin to soar again before the Chinese “New Year”, I suspect. OK, the fact we could eventually understand and find out what’s the matter in the global market is more or less satisfying. However, consider the future world what will take place, when all of us think not conventional currencies printed on papers and backed by sovereign assets, but cryptocurrencies backed by “nothing” to be valuable?

The new era has just begun, which we have enormous difficulties to understand and catch up with. Don’t let yourself down and keep up with us. Stay tuned.