Category Archives: Uncategorized

Analyzing “気(Ki)” in the North.

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For several weeks, I was terribly busy with rather domestic issues and jobs, which hindered me from updating my official weblog written in English. People continuously asked me to release our institute’s analysis on the current and future geopolitical risks around DPRK, which now seem to be calm down tentatively. And as our institute correctly predicted, the Japanese stock market got started soaring recently. This trend will continue at least till the beginning of the forthcoming November.
Now, you may wonder: “What the hell happened on September 25?” In a previous article I released through this weblog, I once mentioned that September 25, 2017 would be the X-Day in terms of breakout of the Second Korean War. Well, as all of you are quite aware, any war didn’t break out on that day. At least in a physical meaning. Why physical? Because Pyongyang officially referred to the public that US President Trump’s harsh words turned out to be a declaration of war against the country. That is to say, in a rhetorical meaning, the Second Korean War began on September 25, as our institute pointed out. Even though USG publicly made efforts for denial, you should make sure the Government of DPRK always pay great attention to legal effect of what it has done. By saying that D. Trump declared a war against the country as the US President, everything DPRK will do from September 25 should be, according to its perception and interpretation, justified as self-defense. In this regard, we’re already living in an irreversible era of the Second Korean War. Don’t misunderstand it.

Anyway…What I’m enthusiastically checking on the globe is not events and incidents on the surface of the global community, but “気(Ki)”  in each places on the globe. This means, in other words, invisible atmosphere which both your conscious and unconscious are originally capable of feeling. The Old-Shintoism (古神道), which has been traditionally fundamental factor of “being Japanese” since the ancient time, regards this “気(Ki)”  as the most important part of our daily life. According to its Arcanum, we have to find out a place full of the best “気(Ki)” only which can revitalize your human brain and body by refilling serotonin.

The question is how to judge whether a certain place is optimized with “気(Ki)”. In order to get acquainted with the Arcanum in this regard, you shall practice every day in terms of both time and space. Only by doing so, you physically and subjectively recognize what it is and become capable of sensing the right place with “気(Ki)”. With accelerated stimulation of serotonin, you can always feel better than others, which automatically promises you to be successful and winner in every single game in the life. Thus, from the ancient time all over the world, what the leadership concentrates on is exactly what I described right now. To reign and govern, every leader needs to know the right place to be settled down. Otherwise, he/she immediately loses the physical origin of revitalization in his/her body, which, in the worst case, would lead to the collapse of his/her country.

This autumn, I’ve been travelling around from Paris, Moscow and Helsinki, while checking the right place in the above shown meaning thoroughly. For my surprise, Moscow is much better than even Paris in this regard, and far better than the capital of Japan, Tokyo. Of course, Helsinki keeps the top priority by making all the people visiting there relax, as I’m feeling right now. If you’re still doubtful, why don’t you make the same round trip as I’ve been making? If you’ll do so, you’ll agree with me completely conditioned that your brain and body were destructed by modern technologies in advance.

Make sure the future fact it’s the global competition to acquire the right place in this meaning as much as possible that will break out after the end of the forthcoming Second Korean War. Because the global leadership is about to fight against each other to own the right place with full of “気(Ki)”, the world order will be completely changed. Not finance or digital technology matters at this juncture. It’s rather “気(Ki)” that really matters. Once you stand in the center of Moscow, you just understand while Vladimir Putin succeeds to build up the Russian Empire again. Stay tuned.

 

The US-DPRK War “Declared”./米朝戦争、遂に「宣戦布告」

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On September 25, 2017, Ri Yong-ho, Foreign Minister of DPRK, accused US of having declared a “war” just before his departure from NY to Pyongyang.
Eventually, the Second Korean War has just begun. Physical military attacks will soon follow, which will completely change the previous world order.
As I correctly predicted. Be carefully prepared and stay tuned.
25日(NY時間)、リ・ヨンホ北朝鮮外務大臣は記者団に対し、「米国勢が宣戦を布告した」とコメントしました。物理的な意味での軍事攻撃が間もなく続くことになります。これをもって、最終的には従来の世界秩序を根底から覆すことになる第二次朝鮮戦争が遂に開始されました。
弊研究所がこれまでご提示してきた分析のとおりの展開です。十二分に御留意下さい。

2017年9月26日 東京・丸の内にて
(In Marunouchi/Tokyo, on September 26, 2017)
原田 武夫記す
(Takeo HARADA, CEO and Representative, Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc.)

The War is Coming for Building Up the Trans-Japanese Sea Economic Zone.

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If you belong to foreign readership, you might not know what disciplines the Japanese mass media have been forced to follow since the occupation period after the WWII. During the period, the Japanese mass media were harshly accused of having committed themselves to the aggressive war. The Americans armed forces entitled to identify themselves as GHQ taught them what the (American) democracy was, and how they should behave just to keep on playing the game of democracy. According to the disciplines the American gave them, the Japanese mass media may not predict the future to the public. Instead, they have to stick to analyze only both what was done in the past and current status of the targeted phenomena. For them, telling things in the future is a kind of conspiracy and can’t be done in the name of mass media. The reason is quite obvious: Democracy can work, conditioned that results of each elections are not pre-fixed. The American occupation authority strategically took a carrot-and-stick measure against the Japanese mass media, which had been even hostile to the former in the very beginning of the occupation period. In the course of time, the latter eventually understood what they should do and enthusiastically got adapted with the new reality.
The point is the Japanese mass media can’t recognize such a period is about to come to an end: Recently, I was invited by one of them to deliver a public speech on the new world order. As you know, my institute professionally dedicates itself to both quantitative and qualitative analysis for making future strategic scenarios particularly for the Japanese economic and political leadership. From the view of our institute, the X-Day was evident, so that I proudly announced the following without any hesitation based on our analysis: Be prepared for the breakout of the Second Korean War. Once something significant such as launch of a ballistic missile will take place again on September 15, 2017, we can’t avoid the escalation of the whole situation and will be forced to face the preemptive attack by the US Armed Forces on September 25.
Even though all the audience carefully listened to my speech with great interest, the organizer, one of the Japanese mass media, called my press secretary, who accompanied me as usual, on retour to Tokyo. To be honest, we couldn’t understand what the person in charge meant to say, but could imagine what the guy wanted to complain: Don’t tell such a conspiracy theory any more. All we need in such an official occasion is just analysis of the current situation and the past. Don’t make a prediction.
While listing to my press secretary’s reporting, I just felt the Japanese postwar mass media reach the end of their mission since the WWII. Japan, my country which had proudly showed its brave navy and army till the end of the WWII, doesn’t do anything, although the North Koreans obviously violate the international laws by launching a series of ballistic missiles over the its territory. All we, the Japanese, need is, first, what is about to happen, and second what shall be done accordingly. To do so correctly, we Japanese urgently need future scenarios we rely on. For this purpose, the way of both sound and reliable intelligence other than entertainment of pseudo-intelligence some Japanese authors and ex-diplomats propagate is indispensable for the Japanese society. Since the Japanese mass media were once forced not to include such a way of thinking but are now lazy enough, the Japanese public become more and more reluctant to pay attention to what they inform.
Anyway, our institute is totally independent and shall be maintain without any specific financial contribution other than other so-called think tanks in Japan, which are actually dependent on either the Government of Japan or financial institutions. Again, from our view, all the stories around DPRK is moving forward exactly according to the pre-fixed scenario the global leadership agreed on: DPRK will automatically vanish just after the short-term preemptive attack by the US Armed Forces. Based on that a new governing authority will be built up, which will cover all the Korean Peninsula, that is to say, both the North and South. In Seoul, a new Asian type of UN will be established, which forms the trans-Japanese sea economic zone by involving all the countries which belong to the region: Japan, China, Russia and Korea. As the last resort of global investors, the economic zone will soon get started with flourishing abruptly. Because this dramatic change will be totally financed by the off-balance sheet assets which are closely related to the Japanese Imperial Family, this is exactly one of the future realities called Pax Japonica.
Now, you may have eventually understood what will take place from September 25. The breakout of the (very, very short-term) Second Korean War will be just the beginning of the transition period to the era of the trans-Japanese sea economic zone fully backed by Pax Japonica. Don’t believe anyone who can’t see and tell it to you right now. All you need is just a sold future scenario our think tank professionally makes public for the sake of our common future.

Nothing But Genuine Japanese Nature.

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This week, I took a short summer vacation and made a very, very short trip to the GOTO islands in Nagasaki, the southern part of Japan. Every Japanese pupil learns there are the islands on the map of the Japanese territory, however, almost nobody but experienced tourists visit there. The GOTO islands are located far away from the main part of the Nagasaki Prefecture. A 90-minitues trip by speedboat.

Meanwhile, the global financial market has been changing itself, again, dramatically. As I correctly predicted, August 4, the last Friday, was the decisive day of a “sea change”. In Japan, the REIT market got started with new challenge to go upward. Besides that, cryptocurrencies such as “Bitcoin” is soaring over the weekend. Conditioned that D. Trump would NOT eventually make up his mind to order (preemptive) military attacks against DPRK in the first or second week of the forthcoming September, the upward trend in the global financial market will go on approximately until the end of October. That’ll be a great event, I think on one hand.

But on the other hand, I just become aware of the fact that all these things are really NOTHING and that we should get back rather to factors much more essential to our life. The beauty of the nature I happened to enjoy in the GOTO islands made me awake in this regard. When you become rich in the Japanese society, you’re privileged to pay long stays, for example, in Hawaii and even to buy a villa on the Hawaiian beach. There, you can immediately recognize how beautiful and “natural” indeed is the local ocean, while it never smells other than the seawater of the industrially polluted Tokyo Bay. To keep on enjoying the Hawaiian nature, you have to continue to work extremely hard, so that the current system of the western-dominated civilization is continuously to expand. Both the digital economy and the financial capitalism are just part of it.

It’s the accelerated industrialization with the western origin that has heavily polluted the beautiful nature on the globe. Particularly, the one in Japan was totally destructed since the end of the WWII. In the Japanese modernization, the human quality life has been in inverse proportion to nature conservation. When we recognized the urgent need of environmental protection, the beauty of the nature was so completely destructed that it won’t restored as it was since the ancient time.

The seawater in the GOTO islands never smells and the sea breeze there made me just become aware of what the nature is. We usually believe that we are the “Creator” of everything on the earth. But the fact is we are “Destructors” who are arrogant enough to forget how to live a balanced life in proportion to the nature’s beauty. Maybe, the best way for us, all the human beings, could be doing nothing at all against the environment. Instead, we should work on adapting ourselves to the nature’s rules so as to become a part of it again.

Well, that’s what I thought of in the beautiful GOTO islands. The short summer vacation will soon come to an end and the struggle for the new period “Pax Japonica” will resumed within hours. Nevertheless, I won’t forget the feeling I’ve got in the islands, which are far away from the capital of Japan.

 

Failed Nation, Failed Diplomacy.

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Once again, DPRK just launched a ballistic missile to threaten not Japan as such but the Trump administration in the States. Once upon a time, even DPRK tended to argue she never launched a “missile” but just tested a rocket launch for scientific research. The time has dramatically changed recently and the North officially announces the “strategic success” of ballistic missile launch. Long-range ballistic missiles made by DPRK are said to be able to directly reach the US territory. When the event had happened 100 years ago, it were a sufficient reason for US to declare a “defense war” against Pyongyang. However, even D. Trump still hesitates to do so. Instead, the US President fired his closest political and military staffs and continues his lonely war of words against Kim Jong-un. The time has been passing.

The reason why D. Trump should declare a “war” in the Korean Peninsula and can’t do so yet is clear: In lack of sufficient official budget, the US administration can’t plan any war to win. For deployment of warships, submarines, fighters and bombers, and rapid mobilizations of all the US soldiers, D. Trump urgently needs enough budget which he unfortunately doesn’t have. Why? The American democracy doesn’t allow him to do so. His any attempts to break its tradition has failed so far. A series of his presidential executive orders were refused by US courts. Only the room left for D. Trump is twitter, where he’s just sued by some users for inappropriate tweets.

As far as I analyzed, the Trump administration invited his Chinese counterpart to jointly declare a “legitimate” war against DPRK to establish a new order in the Far East. However, the Xi administration is clever enough to understand it could be politically endangered if it would rely on D. Trump, who’s obviously not backed by the nation under the above-mentioned circumstances. This is exactly why PRC suddenly changed its friendly approach to D. Trump and de facto refuses to join his original plan to fight against Kim Jong-un.

The only way out for D. Trump is ironically to ask his enemy, Kim Jong-un, to take much harder measures against his citizens: Once all the three US citizens, who still remains captured in Kim Jong-un’s hands, will be sent back to the states in a coma like the US student, Otto Warmbier, D. Trump will be authorized by the US public opinion to declare a “defense war” unilaterally against DPRK. Mere ballistic missile launches to the EEZ of Japan, one of the closest US ally, can’t persuade the people on the street in the states to get rid of their love for peace. Someone must be sacrificed, after all the diplomatic means turn out to be both ineffective and useless.

To warp up, I would say, whether the leadership of budgetary failed nation led by D. Trump would succeed to militarily attack Pyongyang or not really matters. If D. Trump would do so, the conventional “nation state” system would manage to survive. In this case, any “legitimate” wars always follow diplomacy, which is done only for gaining a time to convince the public of joining the wars against enemies. In the modern nation state system, diplomacy is just a tool for either opening up a one-way to military attack or ending war, even though the diplomacy as such pretends as if it aims only at (re-)establishing peaceful order. The historical fact is nations states always need wars to rebalance supply and demand gaps, while their diplomacy is totally dependent on such a tendency of nations states. If D. Trump will fail to declare the Second Korean War as soon as possible, the US as a nation state will immediately turn out to be failed. The traditional diplomacy will also end there.

I’d say, only about 40 days are left for D. Trump’s final attempt to attack Pyongyang unilaterally. Other things being equal, September 8 of this year will be the next target date. Well, let’s see whether his possible failure to follow the conventional rules of nation state will eventually open the door to the next world order. Stay tuned.

 

How Happy You are.

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Basically, I’m very negative when it comes to both “digitalization” and “internet”. They do not create genuine added values at all. Instead, they just make us virtually meet those who can’t meet us without digital devices. All the IT-companies such as Uber and Airbnb follow the same business model. They enable us to dramatically expand our own human network, which can be sometimes monetized. However, again, the end of this story must come soon, since the number of the world’s population is limited, and the digitalization is being drastically accelerated towards the singularity. Once the moment of truth will have come, this business model will immediately come to an end and can never be revitalized again. Meanwhile, almost everyone tries to do the same business, so that it’s commoditized in an accelerated manner. In short, digitalization as such doesn’t matter. It’s all the human beings that will decide the world’s destiny.

Regardless of this fact, I sometimes enjoy “synchronicity”, which sometimes emerges thanks to the digitalized world in my life and makes my mind overflowing. An encounter in the internet I personally experienced recently is one of the typical examples for such phenomena.

Anja (*pseudonym) mistakenly clicked my wall on LinkedIn (in English version) and sent me a “request” to be added in my friends’ list. Because she lives in the southern part of Germany (Bayern) and works as music teacher in a school, I spontaneously accepted the request and responded to her with a short message, even in German. She was extremely shocked to find my message, because she was aware of her mistouch and actually didn’t want to become “my digital friend”. Furthermore, she was positively surprised by my message written in not English but German, so that she replied. That was the very beginning of our conversation online.

Anja kindly explained why she’s now living with her husband and children in Bayern, although her mother tongue is not German but Russian. “Well, Takeo, to be honest, I’m Russian emigrant with my husband, who is ‘Spaetaussiedler’”, she told me. Having written the phrase, she gradually got started with telling me the long story of her journey so far.

She and her husband (to be) grew up in a tiny city in the eastern part of Kasachstan, very near the border to China. When she was 14 years old, she fell love with him and decided to get married with him. However, the collapse of the then Soviet Union abruptly hindered them from doing so easily. The local people, who had been very kind to the Russian citizens, declared the independence of the state of Kasachstan, while she and her families felt threatened because of their Russian ethnicity. Her husband (to be) made a decision to emigrate to Germany because of his German origin. Thanks to Helmut Kohl’s strategic diplomacy, all those who had German origin in the former Soviet Union were entitled to get German passport without any difficulties.

Anja felt extremely troubled. Of course, she joined him to get married in the new promised land, “Germany”, on the one hand. But on the other hand, her parents obviously opposed to her wish, based on the fact her grandfathers and -mothers died in the Great Patriotic War against Nazi-Germany. Anja, a young lady who really wanted to study Psychology, was forced to leave their lovely parents and live her entirely new life in Augusburg, Germany. That was just the very beginning of her hardship.

Without money and sufficient German language skill, she didn’t know whether her decision was correct or not. All most all the day, she either worked or learned to become music teacher while giving up her dream to study psychology. She couldn’t help feeling loneliness overwhelmingly, since she and her husband (to be ) couldn’t afford to live together in lack of money.

“But in this period of my life, I’ve got a lot of foreign residents in Germany, who also struggled to survive and could share my feeling as friends”, Anja wrote. Now, her surroundings seem to be very stabilized and secured, and she enjoys her own both private and professional life. “How about you, Takeo? Tell me a little bit about your own life”, she’s asking.

Having written Anja’s story, I spontaneously contemplated what “happiness” means for our life. At least, as for me and other Japanese people, we have never experienced such a hardship as Anja was forced to overcome, thanks to the stabilized society and national wealth of our country. Nevertheless, who knows whether our own country would repeat the historical mistakes we did before the end of the WWII and automatically face the same hardship Anja experienced after the collapse of the former Soviet Union?

Now, you may wonder how happy you are. At least in this regard, the digitalized world is meaningful from my viewpoint. The encounter with new foreign friends in the internet sometimes makes us deeply think about fundamental issues in our life such as happiness, dream and solidarity. Well, how about you? How happy are you?

The B Side of USA.

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Democracy is based on mutual trust among those who take part in the game. Whoever doesn’t know what “mutual trust “actually means, shall not be entitled to get involved. Obviously. Donald Trump is the one who is to be excluded from the game in this regard.

The Asahi Shimbun, one of the leading newspapers in Japan, reports today’s morning, D. Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, took the seat in the G20 Summit meeting in Hamburg, while her father had to go out just for a while. According to the conventional rule in the “G” Summit meeting (G7/8 and 20), the leaders are “personally” supported by Sherpas and Subsherpas, who are both top and talented bureaucrats with sufficient knowledge and experiences. Whenever the leaders can’t attend the Summit meeting, it’s only their Sherpas who are allowed to even physically serve as a proxy of the bosses. However, Ivanka Kushner (former Trump), isn’t obviously not D. Trump’s “Sherpa”, but mere “unpaid Assistant to the President”. By making her take his own seat, the US President made one more new “legend” in the world history.

Having said that, I’m already excited to see how the US public opinion will react on this affair in terms of the global governance. Even this single issue clearly shows how Donald Trump thinks about conventional rules of politics and democracy. He prefers “nepotism” to democracy, because he can believe only his own family members. No one but his daughter may serve as his proxy, since D. Trump can’t help feeling continuous anxiety vis-à-vis all the non-relatives.

Facing such a silent death of the American democracy, the Japanese mass media harshly criticizes the misconducts of Donald Trump and urge USG to revise the failed politics under his political and economic leadership. Nevertheless, some prominent global strategists such as Isao Kubota, President of the Nishi-Nippon City Bank, do not agree with the criticism and remind the Japanese public of the “B Side” of the American political tradition. For example, Isao Kubota referred to this point in his article published in “Kinyu Zaisei Business(金融財政ビジネス)“ as follows:

“It’s remarkable that a built-in mechanism to let the country go to the right direction works in spite of such a leadership as Donald Trump in US. While seeing a series of turbulence on the surface of US, I’m now rather feeling the traditional “toughness” in the US politics, which can be never found in any other developed countries.” (Tentatively translated by the author)

Taking various examples of what the D. Trump’s administration has done so far (the Russian gate and the controversial border control against the Islam etc.), we always recognize there must be the “B Side” of the country, which succeeds to correct the wrong directions of the presidency.

In my own word, it’s the fundamental human network called the “Kokutai(国体)” that governs all the countries in the last moment, while the democratically elected leadership, the “Seitai(政体)“ is always the pseudo-mechanism which usually believe to work. However, once the latter fails to govern, the former is automatically turned on to do the right things.

From my viewpoint, it also the case for my country, Japan, and it’s the high time for the Japanese “Kokutai(国体)” to do the right thing: Tomorrow (July 10, 2017), a special session of the Japanese Diet is to be held to intensively discuss how seriously the anti-democratic nepotism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his clan harm the sound development of the Japanese society. It must be the final call for Shinzo Abe to resign and we’ll welcome the new political leadership in Japan.

Let’s see whether the “B Side” also works here in Japan successfully as it has done in the States. Sometimes, songs on the “B Side” become much popular than ones on another side. Within a couple of days, we, the Japanese, seriously feel who truly controls the country as the “Kokutai(国体)“ in depth. Stay tuned.

Eventually Released: “Pax Japonica”, My New Book.

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Hereby, I proudly announce my first book written in English is just published at first in London, UK. The title is, as I mentioned beforehand, “Pax Japonica. The Resurrection of Japan”.

Having heard that, you may now wonder what this exactly means. Facing the realities in various sectors in Japan, she seems to never reach such a historical stage as “Pax Japonica”. The Japanese politics remain extremely troubled, while the economy hasn’t fundamentally recovered since 1990 at all. Regardless of the surprising fact that the Japanese economy is (still) the third largest one in the world, almost all the Japanese don’t know any more what their traditional “pride” is. Instead of that, their younger generations particularly tend to rather on the “here and now” and become introvert in an accelerated manner. Why “Pax Japonica” now?

In order to answer this legitimate question you may have, you have to knock the door to the classified parallel world which has been actually backing the realities we can see with our own eyes. The point is it’s the so-called “off-balance sheet assets” that really matters in this regard. And all the off-balance sheet assets fundamental classes in countries and regions such as kings, queens and their family members, have traditionally merged with each other and are now controlled collectively. The most remarkable fact we should pay attention is the Japanese Imperial House is given an opportunity to control the system as its “signer”.

With this capacity closely related with tremendous amount of historical off-balance sheet assets, the Japanese Imperial House led by the Emperor of each period is about to generate the new world order. However opaque their decision are, all the essential framework for the future world from now on is either indirectly or directly backed by the secret assets the Japanese Emperor controls for the sake of the whole world.

Just before the morning ringing, it’s usually the darkest outside. The situation where Japan is now located is quite similar to this darkness. Almost everything in the Japanese society collapses and falls continuously, as if that would never stop forever. Nevertheless, moment of the truth will sooner or later, while the situation around Japan will change itself dramatically from a certain point and move forward to the “Pax Japonica”. The rest of the world will be unconsciously involved into this process.

To effectively evoke the atmosphere of the morning ringing in the very near future, I published the above-shown new book even in English. So that all the humankind will realize how our common future will be shaped, wherever they are. Take a look at my new book and don’t miss the opportunity to get involved in the genesis of the new world order.

From the G-Zero (G0) to Pax Japonica (GJ).

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Recently, Ian Bremmer, the guru of Eurasia Group, published an article based on his famous thesis called “G-Zero” in Nikkei Asian Review. He repeatedly pointed out how vulnerable and uncertain the future can be in the global community as follows:

In short, the number of global flashpoints and “problems without borders” continues to grow, and there are no credible cooperative plans to manage them, much less to solve the problems that have created them. For now, the G-zero order looks here to stay.

Well, from my viewpoint, such a statement of Ian Bremmer sounds a little bit like “wishful thinking”, since his company “Eurasia Group”, which was successfully endorsed by the Japanese METI, will be able to do good business, as long as the world will stay volatile. For the company, it’s essential to make the ordinary people believe that the future would be uncertain and never promising.

With this thesis “G-Zero”, Ian Bremmer is frequently invited to international conferences and for a, where he always speaks out as an evangelist of the “leaderless” world. The audience seems not to oppose to his proclamation, while he and his company enthusiastically distributed a thesis paper like this to the global readership.

As I will show in my new book entitled “Pax Japonica” to be soon released on June 29, 2017 from LIDpublishing, London/UK, this “G-Zero” thesis unfortunately does not reflect the reality of the global governance, which has been traditionally executed by the genuine world leadership for a couple of centuries. And it’s rather Japan, my mother country, that will play the most significant role to save the world, which Ian Bremmer intentionally disregards. Without referring to this emerging fact, any geopolitical thesis fails to lead us to move forward to the right direction. I’m terribly fearing that Ian Bremmer makes the big and irreversible mistake.

To correctly understand the above-mentioned new thesis, “GJ (Governance by Japan=Pax Japonica)” instead of “G0 (G-Zero)”, you are urged to remind yourself of “design thinking”. Yes, the international community has been getting troubled in an accelerated manner. To overcome the historical difficulty, all of us urgently need to “think outside the box”, and seek any appropriate measure to be taken over the conventional framework of nation states. The system of off-balance-sheet assets, which exists beyond each one of governmental budgets, is the program which is now being executed by the traditional world leadership including the Japanese Imperial family. The massive amount of the off-balance-sheet assets are being poured into the world society to enhance innovative humanity. It’s not well-known “leaders” in mass media such as Donald Trump and others who are to take initiative in this regard. They are still hidden but will emerge within a couple of months.

Because the role of this system’s signer is given to the Japanese Imperial family at this historical moment in the human history, Japan will have to lead the whole world. She will show how to survive in the age of total deflation due to both accelerating irregularity of solar activities and irreversible climate changes, by putting forward a series of brilliant technological innovations such as cold fusion and transmutation. The rest of the world will follow it, since it knows only “war economy” for recovery of the world economy from lasting recession as we’re facing right now. Instead of such a conventional mean, Japan will present a completely different way for the future, which will be backed by the historically kept off-balance-sheet assets and automatically penetrate into the rest of the world.

Ian Bremmer mentions in his thesis “weaponization of finance”. Japan is now entitled to “weaponize” the off-balance-sheet assets with a good faith to save the whole world. While all the other nations will get troubled with more and more economic, financial and political hardship, only Japan will soon be able to get rid of it thanks to unforeseen technological innovations with global impacts.

Ian Bremmer’s blind spot is, besides his lacking reference to the off-balance-sheet assets in the traditional world leadership over the “democratically” elected leaders, the fact that decisive technological innovations, which never expressively speak out by themselves, are always capable of changing the world order. Because Japan is about to take such a both technological and innovative initiative fully backed by the off-balance-sheet assets, she will automatically get started with totally changing the world. Society, Economy and even politics are determined to follow technological innovations. This is exactly what I mean to say by mentioning “GJ (Governance by Japan)” or PAX JAPONICA.

As I met Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan privately on January 2, 2015, he expressively regards me as a Japanese version of Ian Bremmer. Well, dear Prime Minister, you’re completely wrong. I’m not a puppet of exitless propaganda such as the “G-Zero”, but a warrior for the forthcoming reality such as “GJ”, who himself actively leads the process toward PAX JAPONICA, the inevitable future of the whole world.

In short, let’s say good-bye to Ian with his fantasy around the “G0” and welcome instead the new reality towards “GJ”.

遂に始まった「日本バブル第2弾」。

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(The following is intentionally written in Japanese. The English version will follow on the next weekend. Stay tuned.)

今月(6月)1日、我が国においては日経平均株価が再び2万円の大台を超えた。これをもって我が国においてはいよいよ円高基調における資産バブル展開としての「日本バブル第2弾」が始まったと弊研究所では考えている。なぜか?

まず確認しなければならないのは「バブルとは”自然に起きるもの“ではなく、我が国においては”人為的に起こすもの“だ」という点である。我が国の株式マーケットにおけるバブル局面、すなわち統計学的に算定できる「通常のライン」を遥かに上回るヴォラティリティーをもって金融商品等の価格がマーケットで上がっていくという現象は戦後、全て当局による直接・間接の誘導によって生じてきたのである。

それでは当局がどこに手を入れてきたのかというと、全部で2つのポイントがある。

第一に我が国が「土地資本主義」とでもいうべき、非常にユニークな経済体制を持つ国であるという点である。例えば米国勢の広大な国土に比べると我が国は遥かに狭い。しかしその「土地」が持つ時価総額はというと、世界でも第2位、米国勢の次なのである。我が国における土地とはマネーそのものなのである。

その一方で我が国経済を支えているのは分厚い中小企業の層である。この中小企業に対しるファイナンス(資金融通)の実態はといえば、結局は不動産担保融資なのである。信用保証協会を通じた無担保融資が行われる場合がほとんどだが、その場合でも経営者には連帯保証が求められる。それではそこでの審査の実態はどうかというと、結局はその経営者がどれだけの不動産を保有しているかによって判断されているのだ。

当局としてはこうした実態を巧みに使っている。つまり、好景気に持っていきたければ不動産がバブルになるように仕向ければ中小企業主たちが持つ不動産の担保価値も上がり、それだけ融資も多く行われるようになるのである。逆もまたしかりなのであり、したがって我が国においてバブルが発生するかどうかは、こうした「調整弁」としての不動産マーケットに大量の資金流入が生じるような決定的な動きが起きるかどうかにかかっているのだ。

そしてもう一つのポイントとなっているのが、一般大衆への資金融通である。金融マーケットにおける鉄則、それは「情報リテラシーの無い大勢の者に最後は高値で転売し、売り抜けること」である。そのため、無数にいる一般大衆がカネを持つ様に仕向ければ、自ずからそのための舞台装置は出来上がるというわけなのだ。もっとも一般大衆は日々の生活で忙しい。日銭を稼ぐのに必死なのだ。だがそれでも「金融マーケットに関わる方が目に見えて儲かる」となると話は別なのである。一斉になけなしの小金をもってマーケットでの投機(≠投資)を始める。そこで「カリスマ個人投資家」なるものが煽られる様になると、射幸心に眼がくらんだその他大勢も参加し始め、マーケットは狂乱状態になる、というわけなのだ。

何を隠そう、1980年代半ばからの「平成バブル」もこの2つのレヴァーを巧みに当局が用いた結果、生じたものだったのである。まず第1の点について言うならば、「プラザ合意」を経て強烈に生じた円高転換の中で「内需主導」と称し、不動産開発を当局自体が推奨した。その結果起きたのが「地上げ」だったわけであり、不動産バブルが発生したのである。

2の点について大きな役割を果たしたのが「消費者金融」すなわち“サラ金”である。街角で24時間、気軽に10万円、20万円が引き出せるような仕組みを当局があえて許すことにより、一般大衆はカネに群がることが出来た。しかも高金利政策を当局がとっていたため、仮に株式投資をせず、銀行預金をするだけでも大儲けすることが出来たのであった。例えば「平成バブル」が終わる1990年当時の長期金利は我が国において6パーセント(!)であった。

それでは今この瞬間はどうなのだろうか?実はここで述べた「2つの基準」という思考の枠組みをもって見た場合、正にそれが満たされた瞬間、それが先月(20175月)末から今月(同6月)頭の展開だったのである。

まず、不動産マーケットについて見るならば、大手銀行が資金供給して支えてきた不動産投資信託(REIT)マーケットが踊り場に差し掛かってきた点がポイントだ。我が国政府は今の約2倍に上る30兆円市場へ育成する目標を掲げている。そうしたさらなる成長を目指すには安定した資金調達網が不可欠なわけであるが、そうした政府の意向を正に「忖度」する形で、三菱東京UFJ銀行が初めて地銀や機関投資家に融資債権を売り、大手行以外から調達するすそ野を広げた。すなわち同銀行はREIT融資を証券化して、投資家に販売するという手に出始めたのである。具体的には第1弾として先月(5月)31日に同行のグループ会社である三菱UFJモルガン・スタンレー証券を通じてそれを販売し始めたのである。11000億円の融資のうち、年間2千億円程度ずつ需要を見ながら売っていくと考えられている。

実はこのREITを巡る証券化こそ、かのリーマン・ショックの元凶となった動きそのものなのである。しかしそれをあえて我が国当局が認める中、メガバンクが導入し始めたというわけなのである。1行が行えば他行もこれに続くことは目に見えている。この業界で有名な野村不動産を巡り、私たち日本勢の「郵便貯金」を握る日本郵政がなぜ買収という奇策に出たのかといえば、実はこうしたバブルへ向けた「国策誘導」があったというわけなのだ。

いずれにせよ、REIT相場が再び来る中でこれが徐々に我が国の不動産マーケットを着実に上昇させていくことは目に見えている。その結果、「不動産担保信用」があらためて活性化し、とりわけ中小企業主たちに対する資金融通が盛んに行われるようになっていくのだ。

次に一般大衆の懐具合と直結する動きとして見るべきなのが「仮想通貨」の価格の乱高下なのである1年前には1単位あたり5万円程度であった仮想通貨「ビットコイン」はここにきて瞬間的にではあるが実のその6倍以上である30万円をマークした。これに一般大衆が射幸心を煽られないわけがないのである。実際、今年(2017年)1月の段階では流通しているビットコインの8割を中国勢が保有していると考えられていたが、現在ではマーケットにおいて取引される5割が何を隠そう私たち日本勢によって占められるようになっている。そう、私たち日本勢は十分、仮想通貨によってマーケットにおびき寄せられているというわけなのである。

今年(2017年)中にはこれに、メガバンクたちがこぞって開発している独自の「仮想通貨」が続くのである。これまでは「ビットコインは最後の最後、どうなるか分からないし、誰もそこで助けてくれないのでは」と考えていた我が国一般大衆も、信頼のおけるメガバンク自身が「仮想通貨」を発行し、それを保有することを奨励・優遇し始めるとなると話が違うのである。しかもそれが値上がりを続けるビットコインと連動しているような仕組みを持つのであればなおさらなのである。預金金利と言う形での分配ではなく、事実上、一般庶民にも「遊び金」をこうした仮想通貨を通じて与えられるのであれば当局にとってはねがったりかなったりなのだ。そしてしばし仮想通貨によるギャンブルで小金を創ることに成功した一般大衆はより大きな儲けを狙って今度はREIT、あるいは日本株マーケットへとそのカネと突っ込んでいくというわけなのである。

以上の2つの要因がいよいよ揃ったからこそ、日本株は急騰し始めたというわけなのである。そして外国勢は明らかにこうした政策誘導の実態を緻密に分析し、あらかじめ「知っていた」からこそ、昨年(2016年)10月頃より、日本株が下がった時には必ず買い越し、買い貯めてきたというわけなのである。そう、彼らはこれから「日本バブル第2弾」が生じることをあらかじめ知っていたのだ。

無論、リスクも今後大いに“炸裂”して行く。戦乱のリスクが典型であり、早ければ来月(7月)中旬を目途に第2次朝鮮戦争が勃発し、10日ほど戦乱が発生するというのが弊研究所の維持している現在のメイン・シナリオである。無論、そうなれば我が国株価は暴落する。しかし日本円は「売られる」のではなく「買われる」ことになり、どういうわけか円高になるはずだ。細かいことは紙幅の都合上、ここでは書かないが、要するに戦争の主体である米国勢の戦費調達を支えているのが実は我が国財務省・日銀による米国勢に対する「日本円建て資金融通」なのであり、そうである以上、米国勢はこぞってこの日本円高を推し進め、もってそれを担保としてFRBが発行するドルが安くなり、大量発行が可能となるよう仕向けるからだ。そして、ひとたび戦乱が短期間で終われば、日本株は再び急騰する。なぜならば戦乱の終了は今回、「北朝鮮の体制崩壊」を意味するからだ。そう、第2次朝鮮戦争は絶好の買い場として米欧系の”越境する投資主体“らによってとらえられているのであって、その勃発直前までまずは強烈な「上げ」へと日本株は誘導される一方、暴落後の「上げ」もまた凄まじいものへとこのままだとなるというわけなのである。

アベノミクスとは経済産業省がいかに美しいプレゼンテーションをしようとも、要するに日銀・財務省による円安誘導による諸外国勢からの国富移転としての「日本バブル第1弾」に過ぎなかったのである。しかし我が国におけるバブルは常に「円高」から始まっているのである。そして今、再び円高基調となる中で以上の仕組みによって発生するバブルはこれとは明らかに異質なものなのであって、「日本バブル第2弾」と呼ぶにふさわしいものなのだ。日本株が急騰する中、「ジャパン・アズ・ナンバーワン」にも似たお追従が諸外国勢から次々に聞こえてくるようになり、小金をもった一般大衆たちはこの夏以降、我が国の街角で乱痴気騒ぎを繰り広げるようになる。世間ではカネにまみれた話ばかりが聞こえてくるようになるはずだ。

だがThis time is different,すなわち「今回は違う」のである。このバブルの逃げ足は凄まじく早く、しかし強烈なヴォラティリティーをもたらすものなのだ。瞬時にして急騰と暴落が生じる中で、それでも生じるはずなのがそこでの「勝者」である。かつて世界大恐慌の際のNYマーケットにおける株価暴落で、かのJ.F.ケネディの父親は自らが持つ資産を650倍(!)にまですることに成功したのだという。これが後の「ケネディ王朝」とまで言われる一族の繁栄を導いたことは言うまでもないのである。

「日本バブル第2弾」のゴングがいよいよリングに鳴り響いたのである。それでも動くことが出来ないのか、あるいは既に機敏に動き、緒戦を飾っているのか。―――私たち日本勢は今、数百年に1回しか訪れない、歴史上の分岐点に到達している。それを生かすも殺すも、あなた次第だ

 

201765日 東京・丸の内にて

原田 武夫記す