Monthly Archives: July 2017

Failed Nation, Failed Diplomacy.

Kim-Jong-Un-attack-Trump-US-world-war-740550

Once again, DPRK just launched a ballistic missile to threaten not Japan as such but the Trump administration in the States. Once upon a time, even DPRK tended to argue she never launched a “missile” but just tested a rocket launch for scientific research. The time has dramatically changed recently and the North officially announces the “strategic success” of ballistic missile launch. Long-range ballistic missiles made by DPRK are said to be able to directly reach the US territory. When the event had happened 100 years ago, it were a sufficient reason for US to declare a “defense war” against Pyongyang. However, even D. Trump still hesitates to do so. Instead, the US President fired his closest political and military staffs and continues his lonely war of words against Kim Jong-un. The time has been passing.

The reason why D. Trump should declare a “war” in the Korean Peninsula and can’t do so yet is clear: In lack of sufficient official budget, the US administration can’t plan any war to win. For deployment of warships, submarines, fighters and bombers, and rapid mobilizations of all the US soldiers, D. Trump urgently needs enough budget which he unfortunately doesn’t have. Why? The American democracy doesn’t allow him to do so. His any attempts to break its tradition has failed so far. A series of his presidential executive orders were refused by US courts. Only the room left for D. Trump is twitter, where he’s just sued by some users for inappropriate tweets.

As far as I analyzed, the Trump administration invited his Chinese counterpart to jointly declare a “legitimate” war against DPRK to establish a new order in the Far East. However, the Xi administration is clever enough to understand it could be politically endangered if it would rely on D. Trump, who’s obviously not backed by the nation under the above-mentioned circumstances. This is exactly why PRC suddenly changed its friendly approach to D. Trump and de facto refuses to join his original plan to fight against Kim Jong-un.

The only way out for D. Trump is ironically to ask his enemy, Kim Jong-un, to take much harder measures against his citizens: Once all the three US citizens, who still remains captured in Kim Jong-un’s hands, will be sent back to the states in a coma like the US student, Otto Warmbier, D. Trump will be authorized by the US public opinion to declare a “defense war” unilaterally against DPRK. Mere ballistic missile launches to the EEZ of Japan, one of the closest US ally, can’t persuade the people on the street in the states to get rid of their love for peace. Someone must be sacrificed, after all the diplomatic means turn out to be both ineffective and useless.

To warp up, I would say, whether the leadership of budgetary failed nation led by D. Trump would succeed to militarily attack Pyongyang or not really matters. If D. Trump would do so, the conventional “nation state” system would manage to survive. In this case, any “legitimate” wars always follow diplomacy, which is done only for gaining a time to convince the public of joining the wars against enemies. In the modern nation state system, diplomacy is just a tool for either opening up a one-way to military attack or ending war, even though the diplomacy as such pretends as if it aims only at (re-)establishing peaceful order. The historical fact is nations states always need wars to rebalance supply and demand gaps, while their diplomacy is totally dependent on such a tendency of nations states. If D. Trump will fail to declare the Second Korean War as soon as possible, the US as a nation state will immediately turn out to be failed. The traditional diplomacy will also end there.

I’d say, only about 40 days are left for D. Trump’s final attempt to attack Pyongyang unilaterally. Other things being equal, September 8 of this year will be the next target date. Well, let’s see whether his possible failure to follow the conventional rules of nation state will eventually open the door to the next world order. Stay tuned.

 

How Happy You are.

vertriebene

Basically, I’m very negative when it comes to both “digitalization” and “internet”. They do not create genuine added values at all. Instead, they just make us virtually meet those who can’t meet us without digital devices. All the IT-companies such as Uber and Airbnb follow the same business model. They enable us to dramatically expand our own human network, which can be sometimes monetized. However, again, the end of this story must come soon, since the number of the world’s population is limited, and the digitalization is being drastically accelerated towards the singularity. Once the moment of truth will have come, this business model will immediately come to an end and can never be revitalized again. Meanwhile, almost everyone tries to do the same business, so that it’s commoditized in an accelerated manner. In short, digitalization as such doesn’t matter. It’s all the human beings that will decide the world’s destiny.

Regardless of this fact, I sometimes enjoy “synchronicity”, which sometimes emerges thanks to the digitalized world in my life and makes my mind overflowing. An encounter in the internet I personally experienced recently is one of the typical examples for such phenomena.

Anja (*pseudonym) mistakenly clicked my wall on LinkedIn (in English version) and sent me a “request” to be added in my friends’ list. Because she lives in the southern part of Germany (Bayern) and works as music teacher in a school, I spontaneously accepted the request and responded to her with a short message, even in German. She was extremely shocked to find my message, because she was aware of her mistouch and actually didn’t want to become “my digital friend”. Furthermore, she was positively surprised by my message written in not English but German, so that she replied. That was the very beginning of our conversation online.

Anja kindly explained why she’s now living with her husband and children in Bayern, although her mother tongue is not German but Russian. “Well, Takeo, to be honest, I’m Russian emigrant with my husband, who is ‘Spaetaussiedler’”, she told me. Having written the phrase, she gradually got started with telling me the long story of her journey so far.

She and her husband (to be) grew up in a tiny city in the eastern part of Kasachstan, very near the border to China. When she was 14 years old, she fell love with him and decided to get married with him. However, the collapse of the then Soviet Union abruptly hindered them from doing so easily. The local people, who had been very kind to the Russian citizens, declared the independence of the state of Kasachstan, while she and her families felt threatened because of their Russian ethnicity. Her husband (to be) made a decision to emigrate to Germany because of his German origin. Thanks to Helmut Kohl’s strategic diplomacy, all those who had German origin in the former Soviet Union were entitled to get German passport without any difficulties.

Anja felt extremely troubled. Of course, she joined him to get married in the new promised land, “Germany”, on the one hand. But on the other hand, her parents obviously opposed to her wish, based on the fact her grandfathers and -mothers died in the Great Patriotic War against Nazi-Germany. Anja, a young lady who really wanted to study Psychology, was forced to leave their lovely parents and live her entirely new life in Augusburg, Germany. That was just the very beginning of her hardship.

Without money and sufficient German language skill, she didn’t know whether her decision was correct or not. All most all the day, she either worked or learned to become music teacher while giving up her dream to study psychology. She couldn’t help feeling loneliness overwhelmingly, since she and her husband (to be ) couldn’t afford to live together in lack of money.

“But in this period of my life, I’ve got a lot of foreign residents in Germany, who also struggled to survive and could share my feeling as friends”, Anja wrote. Now, her surroundings seem to be very stabilized and secured, and she enjoys her own both private and professional life. “How about you, Takeo? Tell me a little bit about your own life”, she’s asking.

Having written Anja’s story, I spontaneously contemplated what “happiness” means for our life. At least, as for me and other Japanese people, we have never experienced such a hardship as Anja was forced to overcome, thanks to the stabilized society and national wealth of our country. Nevertheless, who knows whether our own country would repeat the historical mistakes we did before the end of the WWII and automatically face the same hardship Anja experienced after the collapse of the former Soviet Union?

Now, you may wonder how happy you are. At least in this regard, the digitalized world is meaningful from my viewpoint. The encounter with new foreign friends in the internet sometimes makes us deeply think about fundamental issues in our life such as happiness, dream and solidarity. Well, how about you? How happy are you?

The B Side of USA.

ivanka4

Democracy is based on mutual trust among those who take part in the game. Whoever doesn’t know what “mutual trust “actually means, shall not be entitled to get involved. Obviously. Donald Trump is the one who is to be excluded from the game in this regard.

The Asahi Shimbun, one of the leading newspapers in Japan, reports today’s morning, D. Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, took the seat in the G20 Summit meeting in Hamburg, while her father had to go out just for a while. According to the conventional rule in the “G” Summit meeting (G7/8 and 20), the leaders are “personally” supported by Sherpas and Subsherpas, who are both top and talented bureaucrats with sufficient knowledge and experiences. Whenever the leaders can’t attend the Summit meeting, it’s only their Sherpas who are allowed to even physically serve as a proxy of the bosses. However, Ivanka Kushner (former Trump), isn’t obviously not D. Trump’s “Sherpa”, but mere “unpaid Assistant to the President”. By making her take his own seat, the US President made one more new “legend” in the world history.

Having said that, I’m already excited to see how the US public opinion will react on this affair in terms of the global governance. Even this single issue clearly shows how Donald Trump thinks about conventional rules of politics and democracy. He prefers “nepotism” to democracy, because he can believe only his own family members. No one but his daughter may serve as his proxy, since D. Trump can’t help feeling continuous anxiety vis-à-vis all the non-relatives.

Facing such a silent death of the American democracy, the Japanese mass media harshly criticizes the misconducts of Donald Trump and urge USG to revise the failed politics under his political and economic leadership. Nevertheless, some prominent global strategists such as Isao Kubota, President of the Nishi-Nippon City Bank, do not agree with the criticism and remind the Japanese public of the “B Side” of the American political tradition. For example, Isao Kubota referred to this point in his article published in “Kinyu Zaisei Business(金融財政ビジネス)“ as follows:

“It’s remarkable that a built-in mechanism to let the country go to the right direction works in spite of such a leadership as Donald Trump in US. While seeing a series of turbulence on the surface of US, I’m now rather feeling the traditional “toughness” in the US politics, which can be never found in any other developed countries.” (Tentatively translated by the author)

Taking various examples of what the D. Trump’s administration has done so far (the Russian gate and the controversial border control against the Islam etc.), we always recognize there must be the “B Side” of the country, which succeeds to correct the wrong directions of the presidency.

In my own word, it’s the fundamental human network called the “Kokutai(国体)” that governs all the countries in the last moment, while the democratically elected leadership, the “Seitai(政体)“ is always the pseudo-mechanism which usually believe to work. However, once the latter fails to govern, the former is automatically turned on to do the right things.

From my viewpoint, it also the case for my country, Japan, and it’s the high time for the Japanese “Kokutai(国体)” to do the right thing: Tomorrow (July 10, 2017), a special session of the Japanese Diet is to be held to intensively discuss how seriously the anti-democratic nepotism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his clan harm the sound development of the Japanese society. It must be the final call for Shinzo Abe to resign and we’ll welcome the new political leadership in Japan.

Let’s see whether the “B Side” also works here in Japan successfully as it has done in the States. Sometimes, songs on the “B Side” become much popular than ones on another side. Within a couple of days, we, the Japanese, seriously feel who truly controls the country as the “Kokutai(国体)“ in depth. Stay tuned.