Monthly Archives: June 2019

Dancing Shanghai and Japan’s Future.

TheBund2

If you are a very enthusiastic reader of my works which I sincerely expect you to be, you’re already aware I’ve rarely write down columns here these days. There are several reasons. First, I just don’t have any time to give thoughts and ideas by writing here. Second, regardless of my repeated warnings, there are indeed some Japanese readers who illegally translate and copy what I wrote down here. Again, this IS my work and can’t be translated and copied without my written permission. Particularly to those who enthusiastically but illegally copy my writings, this is the last warning you may never skip (I know your names. An English teacher and his staffs.).

This time, I’m writing to you, dear readers, because I gradually become aware it’s not the Japanese ordinary people but the upper-class in the global community except for my own country, Japan, such as successful overseas Chinese family members that must be targeted by this official weblog. From time to time, I’m invited to significant events abroad and given opportunities to speak about forthcoming common future of the global community. Every time when I do so, there is always a part of audience there, which belongs to the above-mentioned social class and kindly and passionately pays great attention to my speech. Thus, I make up my mind to write down my thoughts and impressions here again so that these people all over the world can reach me and my forecasting in the internet.

The day before yesterday, a prominent and extremely successful overseas Chinese business person kindly invited my chief secretary and me to an amazing party in Shanghai. At a glance, I found it to be a party of American style: Everybody got together, and enjoyed him/herself, while he/she is intentionally invited from various fields. While having enjoyed dancing with R&B and even “Auld lang syne” from Scotland, he kindly introduced us, “VIPs from Japan”, to all the other guests, who are both successful and ambitious young entrepreneurs and business persons in Shanghai. The party itself was not only pleasant but insightful for me and my chief secretary, who had worked there for six years before joining my office in Tokyo. Remembering the old sweet days in Shanghai, she told me, “Yeah, this is exactly what I’m missing in Tokyo. This atmosphere, I mean”. When young Japanese guys and girls get together in a party, they either are pessimistic enough to talk about how to escape from the declining Japanese society, or enthusiastically hunt husband/wife to be. That’s it, and they never talk about how to collaborate together for success in business. But there, in Shanghai, the situation was completely different. As it’s always the case for the Chinese, they just talked about how to succeed in life and how to cooperate with each other for this goal. I really love to experience such an atmosphere which leads us to our possible future success. The old but most energetic Chinese business gulu, who, as mentioned beforehand, kindly organized the party during our visit to the Bund, said to me, “Let’s repeat it in Tokio. Get together again in Azabu-juban”.

While dancing together, he added one simple question to our conversation: “Japan should (or even has to) join the Chinese policy ‘One-belt, one-road’. Do you know why?” Capitalism is doomed to always expand market. Particularly for countries such as Japan, of which economic growth can be done only by foreign trade, this axiom is inevitable. In the post-war era, Japan has, in fact, pursued this policy, while heavily relying on Japan-US alliance. Once US succeeds to open a foreign market, sometimes even with military power, Japan soon follows and massively sells her products in the market while enjoying intentionally depreciated JPY. Through this way, Japan effectively transfers national wealth of other nations and keep it in domestic economy by all means. Even though the ordinary Japanese firmly believe their economic growth so far was done by their own innovation and energetic marketing and sales, the fact was so. This business model of Japan in the post-war era is vulnerable to the collapse of Japan-US alliance. This is why GOJ and all the Japanese Prime Minisiters just follow instructions and demands from US without any objections.

But now, the time is chaning. The US is repeating the same trade policy vis-a-vis PRC as she once did to Japan. The Americans intended to escalate trade conflicts with PRC and dramatize it as if it were a “trade war”. But the Chinese business gulu, who was dancing with me in Shanghai, smiled and simply said, “I’m confident China will win the ‘trade war'”. According to his understanding, there won’t be surely no winner in this “war” in the short term. However, how about the long-term. The modern history shows the country, People’s Republic of China”, was founded by Chinese communists, after they had been forced to fight against enemies so long time. In the country’s “blood”, unparalleled resilience is incorporated, which the Americans, “the Always-Winners in the modern history”, never know.

While the expectation of PRC’s final win in this “trade war” is higher than we usually think, Japan will be, soonner or later, forced to choose either China or US. When she’ll do so, she’ll have to take into account the simple fact there are so many other suppliers of goods and resources to PRC, while it’s PRC that US’s most important trade partner. As long as USG forbids American companies to freely trade with the Chinese, US economy is weakened in an accelerated manner. That is, of course, really bad for both D. Trump and his successor (maybe from 2021?).

“Japan seems to have no other choice than to formulate a brand-new trade policy based on PRC’s ‘one-belt, one-road'”, my Chinese gulu said. And he never forgot to whisper the following to me: ” As long as the developing countries, which the policy intends to connect itself to, remains their status as such, they can’t help from buying Chinese products. But, once they will succeed to boost their economies thanks to this policy, their people will abruptly change their buying attitude, and buy only Japanese products of good quality. It’s always the case for economic growth and development in the post-war era. Thus, I wanna say to my Japanese friends, ‘Don’t be afraid and hesitate to join us. Your future is prosperous as ours.'”.

Having heard this argument, I spontaneously asked him for his opinion on distorted conditionality for foreign loan by PRC to developing countries. To maintain the “one-belt, one-road” policy, PRC massively gives loans to developing countries, which allow PRC to import their own natural resources and buy Chinese products and services in return. To kick off and accelerate this cycle, PRC obviously violates international standards for conditionality in terms of foreign loan, and US and other western countries get angry more and more. This is very bad for the international established financial regime such as World Bank and International Monetary Fund. To answer my question in this regard, the gulu laughed and shortly said, “Well, what did Japan do to PRC? What PRC is now doing is exactly the same as your country has done so far to PRC and other developing countries”.

Is there really no way-out for Japan other than simply changing its trade (or even alliance) policy and joining the circle of “one-belt, one-road”? I personally don’t think so. Because Japan still has a secret lethal weapon in her hand. What is it?

“You know, Japan will soon default, no matter what the global community will make effort to prevent her from doing so. From the forthcoming autumn, you’ll feel what I now mean to say. And from the early spring of the next year, you’ll directly see what I’m now saying. Be careful”, I told him. Japan’s default will cause a domino effect of sovereign debt crisis all over the world, especially in both US and PRC, and at the last stage of such a crisis, the global community will be forced to rethink and create the new world order which has been never seen in the human history.

“Really? Nobody told me such a future crisis. Are you sure? Show me some evidences”, the gulu said. Evidence? Of course, I can show you some. But the point is not US and PRC, but Japan is the chosen nation which already receives the message from the very near future and either intentionally or unconsciouslly prepares for the forthcoming development of the human civilization. I am a part of the chosen group in Japan, which is allowed to access to the message and detailed secret scenario including very near-future economic and security crisis, pandemic. What I’m permitted here, is just to disclose parts of that only step by step and with my own words (no original scenario and message). And as you already know, those who exactly know what will happen tomorrow, are the persons who may hold the ultimate power.

The future world is not the one based on “one-belt one-road”, but “Pax Japonica” initiated by the words which have been descending primarily to Japan and her chosen people. Stay tuned.