Unless Xi Jinping Will Make a Decision.

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As I correctly predicted in the previous post, the global stock market has just begun to rocket again. The Dow Jones Index in NY went up even over 20,000 points this week, while the Japan’s Nikkei 225 obviously rebounded. Nobody can doubt anymore the fact that a new sea change has been emerging in the global macro, which tends to remain until the spring ahead.

Nevertheless, I want to take this online opportunity to warn you of one thing. It’s not Trump but rather Xi Jinping in PRC that matters.

Why? According to classified information delivered to me from a certain intelligence source, the Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping would take advantage of the current transition of presidential leadership in the States so that the it can testify how vulnerable the Trump administration is vis-à-vis military crisis particularly in East Asia. Based on what I’ve been informed there could be the four options as follows in this context:

 

– The Chinese “SEALDS” will abruptly occupy the Senkaku Islands in military uniform.

-The Chinese “SEALDS” will abruptly do the same thing but in pseudo-civil clothes.

-The Chinese warships will demonstrate its military capability in the Taiwan Strait.

-The Chinese warships will get started with artillery bombardment vis-à-vis warships of western countries such as US.

Now, you may wonder whether the Chinese President would go mad without any reasons? Of course, no. There is a very reason for his brinkmanship in both diplomatic and domestic contexts. While heading to the forthcoming congress of the Chinese Communist Party in autumn, Xi Jinping seems to feel increasing political pressures from his antagonists. Because he hasn’t had any experiences in real military battlefields, the majority of military leaders of the People’s Liberation Army never stop the criticism that their political leader isn’t capable of crisis management whenever something significant will happen. Thus, Xi Jinping has to show his “brilliant” capability to lead the nation successfully even in a military crisis without serious military damages. For that, he urgently needs a well-planned mini-crisis in East Asia, which he can take advantage of as a “talented negotiator” vis-à-vis the States.

Once Xi Jinping would really make such a decision for his own sake, the global financial market would get involved in serious volatilities again. One of my deep throats who are deeply connected with both Chinese and US INTEL kindly suggests that the risk would last at least until February 19. Well, let’s see what will take place within and beyond the Chinese Lunar New Year. Stay tuned.

At the Dawn of the Forthcoming Chinese New Year.

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While I’ve been checking how actively our clients react on the products we released a few days ago, I have the feeling they think the recent upward trend of the financial market to be ended. Plus, they might be in fear of tightened regulations of the Chinese financial authority, particularly vis-à-vis Bitcoin.

Well, taking this opportunity, I’d say “NO. You’re wrong.” Every serious institutional investor is quite aware of the fact the market is about to soar again from the very end of this January. Meanwhile, the market pretends as if it totally depends on volatilities which seem to be uncontrollable.

However, as one of the leaders from the House of Rothschild reportedly said, the world history is being made not in a party but in a battlefield where everyone is enthusiastically trying to survive. It’s also the case for the present time.

In addition, a typical Japanese anomaly should be taken into account. While the Diet is held, the GOJ is urged to take “appropriate” measures to make the Japanese stock market go up. The next session will get started on January 20. I hope you’ve already understand what I mean to say herewith.

Well, the question is “to decide, or not to decide right now”. Wish you a great success in the midst of the Chinese New Year ahead, which usually makes the global financial market extremely exciting (BTW, Bitcoin, which sharply fell due to the “spot check” by the Chinese authority, has already started to rebound.). Good luck.

 

The Year of Cryptocurrency Has Just Begun.

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While I enjoyed refreshing myself both physically and mentally in a seaside retreat in Kahala, Hawaii, till the New Year, a new trend abruptly broke out in the global market. “Bitcoin”, the leading cryptocurrency, rocketed, and its price reached even more than 150,000 JPY per piece, which is much more than the historical record of 128,000 JPY. No one can deny any more a new era has just begun in the market.

“Seeing is believing”: In the last April, my institute officially announced the following recommendation to its closest clients in a discreet manner. “Think about including one of the emerging cryptocurrencies in your asset portfolio. Don’t hesitate to invest to Bitcoin, whereas you can’t understand what “block chain” actually means.” Some clients of mine immediately followed us, while the others did not do so by arguing, “Well, I know cryptocurrency can be used these days in the market, however, its technological advancement isn’t secured yet.” In the course of time, a trading house of cryptocurrencies in HK was broken and the enormous amount of Bitcoin was stolen by an unknown hacker. Those who had opposed to my recommendation became much more confident than ever of the vulnerability of cryptocurrencies.

And now, Bitcoin soared afterwards. By saying that, I don’t mean to say I’m right and these frightened clients are doomed to fail because of their incapability to accept something new and innovative. What I want to underline herewith is the importance for all of us to get to know the logic I followed to announce the above shown recommendation for Bitcoin.

Nothing around cryptocurrencies is clear: We don’t know who invented the brand new technology called “Block Chain”. Nobody knows who’s the guy, “Satoshi NAKAMOTO” that is supposed to be the inventor. In addition, we never know what backs cryptocurrencies, e. g., Bitcoin, except for the “belief”, or rather “rumor” that they are based on mutual confidence of those who make use of them.

Nevertheless, I myself found the following two phenomena extremely remarkable: First of all, a series of small but significant events were held in the City of London several years ago to support the geeks of cryptocurrencies. Secondly, the government of PRC released licenses to five companies to start their eCommerce business with cryptocurrencies in the last spring. As usual, I spontaneously combined these phenomena with each other to “think outside the box”. This way of analogical thinking always leads me to a new world where I can enjoy something new and innovative. It was also the case for this time. My tentative conclusion was “The City of London is about to back the cryptocurrencies, which the Chinese consumers will rush to use for unknown reasons. Based on such a sea change in the global market, the cryptocurrencies will be broadly accepted in the financial market.”

Again, “Seeing is believing”. As far as the Chinese mainland market is concerned, the local investors has been obviously seeking a technologically secured “safe haven” and finally found it. That’s exactly what we discussed so far: “Bitcoin”. The trend is irreversible, and the Bitcoin will begin to soar again before the Chinese “New Year”, I suspect. OK, the fact we could eventually understand and find out what’s the matter in the global market is more or less satisfying. However, consider the future world what will take place, when all of us think not conventional currencies printed on papers and backed by sovereign assets, but cryptocurrencies backed by “nothing” to be valuable?

The new era has just begun, which we have enormous difficulties to understand and catch up with. Don’t let yourself down and keep up with us. Stay tuned.

Time for Reflection.

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December is particularly for the Japanese the time for “consuming”. However, it’s rather the time for “reflection”, as far as I’ve got learned during being dispatched as young diplomat to Germany.

The year 2016 has been a year which contributes to make me become aware of the reason why I was born and live life as I’ve been doing. It’s been enriching my life by leading me to encounter with those who are indispensable for me to accomplish what I envisage. A part of them isn’t unfortunately aware of close collaboration with me in the very near future yet, but it’s, at least from my viewpoint, just an issue of timing. Inevitably, they and I will sooner or later begin to work on a common thing together, which will open up the new world for all of us.

Towards the forthcoming year 2017, I already know a lot of tasks will have to be done to reach the final goal of my life, “Pax Japonica”. First of all, I’ll be prepared for establishing a both specific scheme which will enable “Pax Japonica” both physically and financially. And secondly, it’s the better understanding of the ordinary Japanese that really matters. Without enhancing their awareness on “Pax Japonica”, Japan will never change herself accordingly. Thanks to several close friends and colleagues, I’ve succeeded to begin with the both tasks. In terms of the first one, I’ve been just given a great opportunity to connect myself with the fundamental structure of the human civilization by asking it to support my project “Pax Japonica” financially. For the second task, I was offered to publish my first book in English, entitled “Pax Japonica” in June 2017 from London, UK.

Even though almost everything around my mother country, Japan, is getting troubled both politically and economically in an accelerated manner, I’m rather hopeful for the very near future, where “Pax Japonica” will eventually established. In this regard, the year 2016 is being critical to kick off, and all the good will get together from all over the world to reach the goal “Pax Japonica” from 2017.

Well, that’s my life and the reason why I was born on the earth in such an exciting period. I’m really grateful to all for having made me as I am. May God bless you all.

 

Way out from Accelerated Bureaucratization of Japanese SMEs.

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Nobody can escape from one single fact: Aging. Every one of us is doomed to pass away some day. The moment of truth will come abruptly, however, the process towards the day never stops to go forward step by step.

The same thing is the case for companies. When they get started, they try to accelerate growth rate. Once they succeed to so, they seem as if they can’t stop growing. However, they are doomed to reach the level where their growth rate turns out to be slowing down. At first glance, we can’t recognize such a simple fact. But it’s true that companies, which proudly announced to rocket in the market, suddenly have to show their own aging. As a matter of fact, they inevitably die slowly.

It’s owner of these companies, particularly SMEs that matters at this stage. If they accept this as a kind of fate, they just let down their own companies, conditioned that they have already profited a lot of money from the enterprises so far. The companies’ employees, who are usually incapable of recognizing the fact that their overwhelming “bureaucratization” is leading to this fate, are used to oppose to change themselves to revitalize. Instead, they just try hard to find out “pseudo-effective” argument to override any innovative ideas and initiatives the founders/company executives dare to bring in for the better future of the companies.

As our institute, IISIA, is dedicated to support Japanese companies, particularly SMEs, in terms of global expansion and HRM, we frequently face this phenomenon. Founders and company executives make tremendous effort to remain “bullish”, but their employees never follow them. Especially in the on-going accelerated deflation of the Japanese economy, this trend can be seen everywhere in the local SME market, I think.

The only way out from this fate is quite simple: Forget the previous company with more or less sucess so far, and create a new one with new members. Even in the aging society, nobody hinders old entrepreneurs from starting up from now on. Instead of wasting time by trying to reform the corporate culture of employees who never want to change themselves and think outside the box, go forward towards new challenges with members with whom you can share new dream.

That’s exactly what we, the Japanese, are urged to recognize to enable us to establish “Pax Japonica”. Watch out.

 

All We Need Is Not Just Ideas But Money.

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On December 1 and 2, I attended the B20 conference under the German presidency in Berlin. Berlin is the city where I was given an opportunity to intensively study German language, constitutional theories and political philosophy for three semesters. Whenever I come back to this city, I’m reminded of what I felt and thought about in the past with overwhelming loneliness and hope for the future. And now, I’m accepted by the global leadership’s entity entitled “B20”, despite of the fact I voluntarily went out of governmental capacity and have been trying to change the world from outside of previous social frameworks.

Actually, B20 is still in transition process where all the participants are urged to find out why they get together there. It may sound a little bit ridiculous for those who don’t attend the process. However, it’s true that the participants are still seeking to define what it is. The terms of reference differ from presidency to presidency. For example, the previous Chinese presidency just concentrated on adapting itself to what western-oriented international organizations such as OECD had “kindly” instructed, except for Alibaba’s (pseudo-private) initiative to build up the so-called “World Trade Platform” for the sake of digitalized SMEs.

This time, the German presidency gives the participants sufficient opportunities in the venue to speak out what they were thinking about the future of global community, whereas the German Federal Government obviously tried to persuade them to accept their policies to be discussed in not B(usiness)-level, but G(overnmental)-level. For the German secretariat, governmental policies are preferred. From its viewpoint, all the participants on the B-level should understand what the Federal Government means to do, not vice versa.

B20 has been de facto regarded as a “bridge” between WEF and G20, at least so far. The “inner core” group of WEF, which might have been closely related with the esteemed western houses of financiers, is always entitled to show guidelines to the rest of the world, which international organizations are obliged to convert into specific policies. The global business communities have to be enough enlightened to understand them and are given opportunities to do “pseudo-discussions” in the framework of B20. Through B20 process, the above shown policies are to be handed over to G-level, while G20 is called on to implement all the policy recommendations of B20 originally generated by the “inner core” of WEF. The mechanism per se is perfect and is somehow maintained. However, B20 is gradually getting involved in “Sinnkrise”, or crisis of “raison d’être”.

Along with other participants, I dared to speak out for a couple of minutes in Taskforce Meeting for “Energy, Climate & Resource Efficiency”. Let me summarize what I meant to express as follows:

-Since 2015 under Turkish presidency, I’ve been trying to actively participate in B20 process. Nevertheless, nothing significant happened so far, even though all the participants enthusiastically discussed in the B20 process.

-The time has been coming, when business leaders should not rely on governments any more to tackle essential issues such as climate change, as they have done so far. In the aftermath of the previous financial crisis in 2008, all the governments are still suffering and don’t have capacity to react on business leaders’ requests properly.

-Instead, all the private entities and organizations, which are dedicated to directly global issues, shall be urgently called on to collaborate with B20. In this mean, B20 needs to think “outside the box” and depart from the previous principle to just hand over its “wish list” to G-level.

-Plus, we, B20 members, need a specific “arm” to reach the goal for our common future. In this context, I personally drafted a proposal to build up a global rescue fund to tackle global common issues such as climate change, nuclear disasters and environmental protection (Please don’t forget Fukushima!). The fund shall dedicate itself to intensively invest to innovative technologies, for e.g., low carbon technologies, to accomplish the goal.

-One of the esteemed houses in East Asia kindly showed great interest in my initiative and could pledge nearly 150 billion USD for this purpose. All of the B20 participants are invited to give requests and comments to me. On December 8, I’ll be given an opportunity to discuss the issue with the leader of this house.

When I said at the very beginning of my speech, “To be honest, I’m extremely frustrated. Since nothing significant has happened so far in spite of our intensive discussions in B20”, the majority of the participants impressively showed their sympathy, which I thought to be a very positive sign for making the better world. After the session, some of the (rather younger) participants kindly showed their willingness to collaborate with me in this regard.

In the reception after the general meeting, I had an opportunity to directly express my “frustration” to Juergen Heraeus, this year’s B20 Chairman. “While the previous B20 process concentrated on making “wish lists” to G20, B20 gradually needs its own ‘arm” to combat global issues. Which one should be prioritized?”, I asked. Dr. Heraeus spontaneously answered, “We need the both”, which sounded persuading at least to me.

All we need is not just ideas but “money”, which can realize our dreams. From my viewpoint, it’s the Japanese leadership that is capable of combining the former with the latter, as they successfully did in terms of establishment of BIS beyond conflicts of interest among western powers. In this mean, I felt again the “sea change” towards Pax Japonica. Stay tuned.

 

Why Now Quest for Argentinean Beef?

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On November 22, I got back from South America, while I’ve been there for almost one week. Officially, the reason why I was there is quite simple. I just wanted to take part in this year’s APEC CEO Summit in Peru, while I compare it with other similar conferences for global business leaders such as B20. By the way, B20 will hold its first “physical” conference from 1 to 2 December under the German presidency, in which I’ll also participate.

Make sure I just mentioned “officially”. I.e., there was indeed another, much more significant reason why I was there, I mean, in South America. Can you imagine based on what I’ve been reporting through this online column?

As I had expected, nothing inspiring happened during the APEC CEO Summit. A series of “western” celebrities in global conferences such as Mark Zuckerberg, Christine Lagarde and Ian Bremmer were given opportunities to deliver their speeches to the audience, which were awfully boring with repeatedly expressed messages. MZ just screamed, “We urgently need connectivity! Only connectivity saves the world!” CL emphasized, “Only empowerment of women can raise GDP in the global economy.” IB pointed out “Pax Americana is coming to an end. But America remains a super power. Don’t be afraid.” How often did I hear the same stuffs in previous “global” meetings I attended?

Anyway, one thing was made clear to me this time: Globalism was dead. The CEO Summit was full of Chinese participants who could only speak Chinese and were not capable of communicating with foreign guests without Chinese language skills. Whenever they talked to me, they always began to ask me, “您是中国人吗?(Are you Chinese?)” For them, there is obviously one tribe in the whole world, which is proudly called “Chinese”. Why did they rush to Lima this time? They must have been invited by the Chinese authority, while they were given an honorable opportunity to listen to Xi Jinping, President of PRC. They were so excited that they didn’t forget to show well-trained “standing ovation” at the end of their top comrade from Beijing.

No, what I just described was not the stuff which led me to South America. Actually not. The only reason was rather another, much more significant one: The currently accelerating and exceeding climate change on the globe. Particularly for those who’s a new comer to this column, I’ll summarize what’s going on in the climate and human society in the following four points:

-Irregularity of solar activities became irreversible.

-That’s been causing dramatic climate change. In the northern hemisphere, “global cooling” accelerates except for the Arctic Circle, where it’s turned out to be “warming”.

-Due to “cooling” of climate, human bodies are endangered to lose immune strength.

-Everybody begins to hesitate expanding their economic activities, while the global economy per se is shrinking.

The point is, compared with the northern hemisphere, the southern one remains saved, and the center of human civilization is gradually shifting to there. That’s exactly why the British Empire covered many countries and regions in the southern hemisphere, and why the Americans tried to reach out to countries in the southern hemisphere by generous transfer of high technology called “global outsourcing”.

Nevertheless, from my viewpoint, every single country in the southern hemisphere can be nominated as savior of the global economy. Of course, the westerners, as they always do, pretend as if all the countries are well prepared to develop dramatically, which is not the case. For e.g., I’m so sorry to say our Peruvian friends have little chances to change their fundamental status in the world order. You can immediately understand what I mean to say by trying to get local foods there. Whenever you can find only little sorts of local foods, that inevitably indicates that the country and region are not capable of fostering human civilization by nature. This time, I unfortunately made sure that it’s quite the case for Peru.

Compared with Peru, my second stop, Argentina, has obviously tremendous opportunities to develop, which once seemed to be lost for decades after the WWII. Argentina is an experimental, man-made state, while local tribes were massacred. All the people with Argentinean nationality are children of ancestors, who came from outside, particularly Italy, Spain, Germany and Japan. Besides the mixture of cultures and traditions, they have fertile soil which produces splendid foods. Because of this characteristic, the Argentineans were given an opportunity to develop economically till 1920s, whereas their leadership abruptly changed the course, which led the country to both stagnation and political tragedy. That was so ridiculous that any expert can fully explain why. I personally think that these Argentinean leaders with military or ideological backgrounds were forced by the “inner core” of the world order to let down their national economy to wait for “moment of the truth”. Now that the climate change has irreversibly begun, President Macri was elected to get started with Argentinean new era.

To decide whether a certain country or region is promising in this regard, you can simply try to eat “beef” in a local restaurant. By doing so, you can immediately find out the future orientation of the country’s orientation, because beef cattle is fed with either crop or grass. The best quality of beef is always produced with the latter, which is the case in Argentina besides Kazakhstan, where westerners have been trying to penetrate. And the quality of grass is directly generated by local soil, nature product of climate. That’s the genuine “geopolitics” which the Germans developed before the end of WWII. This time, I stayed only 16 hours (!) in Buenos Aires, while I could fully ensure the brilliant future of the once capsuled country. Join me next time to enjoy Argentinean beef in BA. By the way, the next year, B20 meetings are to be held in Argentina. The world keeps on going around. Cheers.

The End of Pax Americana Eventually Declared.

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Ian Bremmer, CEO of Eurasia Group, screamed: “We’re now leaving away from Pax Americana from 1945 to 2016.” Originally, US President Obama should have given a presentation to company executives from all over the world in this year’s APEC CEO Summit in Lima, Peru. However, he skipped the opportunity along with Putin and Tordeau. Instead, the audience was force to listen to Bremmer’s presentation, which he not precisely but enthusiastically gave with full of ironies.

Since 2010, I’ve been professionally participating a series of meetings on global affairs, which have been opened to company executives. While I’m sometimes used to play a role as either panelist or even keynote speaker, I rather concentrate on how “narratives” in the global community are gradually changing. This is exactly why I dare to leave Japan for the APEC CEO Summit in Lima this time, even though lots of obligations due to the capacity of my own small-sized enterprise’s CEO could have hindered me from doing so.

Among these meetings and conferences I’ve attended so far, it was unfortunately this APEC CEO Summit in Peru that inspired me only a little bit. Of course, some high-ranking politicians from the Asia-Pacific region got together thanks to the Peruvian government’s endeavor and delivered speeches. However, the topics they touched upon and underlined were all the issues which western mass media have been repeatedly focusing on almost everyday. For example, Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minster of Singapore, highlighted how to proceed global growth. Or Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of IMF, picked up the issue of women empowerment and proudly announced some South American countries including Peru succeeded to do the “right things” in this regard.

On Day 2, even Mark Zukerberg, CEO of Facebook, was given an opportunity to speak out what he thought towards the future. According to his mindset, it’s global “connectivity” that really matters. By enhancing the connectivity on the globe, we can make much more people “happier” than before, he simply said. And Ian Bremmer, whom I mentioned at first, declared the end of “Pax Americana”, but never joined those who US’ status as the only “superpower” in the world to already lost. In his view, just the way how US behave themselves to protect their own national interest is about to change due to the next Trump administration. In addition, he tried to remind the audience of Trump’s original profession: businessman. Trump is said to recognize the world affairs from the viewpoint of businessman. Thus, something dramatic, which the public opinion currently love to be concerned about, will never happen even under US President-elect D. Trump.

While listening to the speeches, I can’t help from feeling a kind of urgency. The urgency for the global leadership to give explanations in detail on what really matters. Because of accelerating irregularity of solar activities, the climate has been dramatically changing, which is gradually leading the global economy to decline in an irreversible way. In spite of such a simple sequence of significant events on the earth and in human societies, the global leaders never tell the truth to their community with clear-cut logics to urgently call them on to react appropriately. Instead, they always touch upon only the above mentioned single issues relevant to this fundamental problem the earth is facing, which doesn’t just enable their followers to understand what really matters.

As I frequently pointed out in my English columns, the global community won’t be saved, unless even historical secret treasury hidden by selected ultrahigh-ranking leaders in China, Japan and the Occident will be massively poured into the global financial market. And as far as I was informed, 24th of November in this year is said to be the most critical for checking out whether a part of this secret treasury will really be exchanged into cash. Of course, all the panelists and speakers, who appeared on the stage in Lima this time, neither directly mentioned, nor implied it. I. e., either they don’t know, or they pretend not to know the truth.

Because “Pax Japonica” will emerges abruptly in the next phase, somebody, who is authentically capable of explaining what it is and why Pax “American” will be replaced by Pax “Japonica”. In this mean, I’ve not learned a lot here in Peru, but finally made sure what to do from now on.

I’m about to leave Lima for Buenos Aires, where Prime Minister Macri, who also skipped the meeting, governs. From my viewpoint, the both countries will tremendously contribute to build up “Pax Japaonica” thanks to their esteemed populations with Japanese origins. Stay tuned.

 

Ode to Mr. K.

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Yesterday, I was informed by one of classified information sources that Mr. K, former high-ranking official of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, who passed away in the Summer of 2015, had been entitled to play the role of “signer” for the Imperial secret treasure. As soon as I heard that, it spontaneously occurred to me that Mr. K had showed me a book on modern history of the Japanese Imperial family during our conversation in December 2014 in his office. Just after having defeated in three-days discussion with PM Shinzo ABE in terms of raising the rate of consumption tax from 8 to 10%, he told me, “Mr. Harada, I’m awfully tired of these political nonsenses. Instead, I’m interested rather in the Japanese history”. At that time, I couldn’t understand at all what he meant by saying that. Now that I’m fully aware of what he actually did for the sake of our nation “Japan”, I’m extremely proud of being given several opportunities to meet him in MOF through synchronicity. I pray again for his happiness in his next life.

 

 

My New Retreat.

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Sometimes, I can’t help from running away from where I professionally do obligations and try to forget everything. Yes, I need my “retreat”, where I’m able to come back to myself.

In the midst of global volatilities, we just forget to take a rest. A rest to make everyday something special. Instead, we continuously get involved in endless rat race that’ll bring you nothing significant in the end.

Delete all the appointments and meetings ahead in your schedule and throw away iPhone and iPad. Be seated in a flight to the retreat where you can breathe deep. Get back to humanity what you’re originally made of.

Finally, I’m just discovering where I should be. Check it out and join me. Enjoy. From Setouchi, Japan.