Monthly Archives: January 2014

China Crash and Tritiated Water in Fukushima

Yesterday night, my closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, mailed me a short message. “S&P is said to plan to downgrade the PRC in the very near future”, he wrote.

Hmmmm…  Spontaneously, I fully agreed with him based on what I saw in Hong Kong. In the last Asian Financial Forum, the former secretary of US treasury, Timothy Geithner, gave a speech on January 14. The audience was totally surprised to be instructed, “NO PHOTO, NO RECORD, NO MEMO. JUST LISTEN”. Furthermore, Geithner was obviously fatigued. Of course, he didn’t refer to the reason why. However, my adaptive unconscious told me this could be somehow related with the US federal debt limit, which will be reached approximately on February 7. I guessed Geithner was dispatched to the PRC to ask his (former) Chinese counterpart to rescues the US federal finance, but in vain.

Nearly on that day, John Kerry, the US state secretary, paid a courtesy call to the Pope Francis. You might know Vatican plays a decisive role in the financial market, as its IOR has established a huge deposit for those who want to hide their money from authorities. My adaptive unconscious suspected Kerry was there because he was, like Geithner, instructed to beg the Pope immediate financial assistance. How important this mission was implied by the fact Kerry announced during this visit Obama would visit Vatican in the near future. Just after this announcement, the White House released the US President, Barack Obama, will be given an audience by the Pope on March 27. That means every turmoil around the US will continue at least till the latter half of March this year…

Getting back to China, nobody knows whether the PRC will truly be downgraded. But the point is such an uncertainty is fully capable to shake the human psychology all over the world for a while. That could cause both upward and downward tendency even in the Japanese stock market. As you can see below, the latest statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225 index undertaken by Mr. “HKD” clearly shows the Tokyo stock market could sharply rise between January 28 and February 7:

20140124    -1    16149.8    over 453.91
20140127    -1    16344.51    over 952.95
*20140128    -1    15689.08    over 297.52
20140129    -1    16118.75    over 727.19
20140130    -1    16026.43    over 634.87
20140131    -1    16002.24    over 610.68
20140203    -1    15870.95    over 479.39
20140204    -1    16050.13    over 658.57
20140205    -1    16070.63    over 679.07
20140206    -1    15897.19    over 505.63
*20140207    -1    15532.79    over 141.23
20140210    -1    15529.4        over 137.84
20140212    -1    15525.78    over 134.22
20140213    -1    15523.4       over 131.84
20140214    -1    15521.35    over 129.79

Last but not least, just a few words on tritiated water emitted by the first Fukushima nuclear reactor. Yesterday, the leadership of the related venture enterprise and I briefed a key person of the Ministry of Finance on what’s going on around its high technology for detoxifying of the tritiated water. He promised to support us in Kasumigaseki, the Japanese bureaucracy, and asked us to update the information as soon as an operation test will be undertaken by a certain, authoritative national university in Japan. On January 30, the next step forward will be made in accordance with instructions of the top leadership of the GOJ.

Because of its significance, I won’t mention this issue in my Japanese media except for really critical dates. Instead, I’ll promise you to continue updating the detail on this English weblog.

Fresh thoughts and initiatives are urgently needed especially in Japan. Until they will emerge, just listen to what a forerunner in this regard has already begun to play as shown below. Enjoy.

The World Needs Tri-Sector Leadership!

To be honest, I’m always reluctant to adopt contemporary western business and political thoughts and concepts without any reflection, as almost all the Japanese tend to do so. Especially when they are “imported” to Japan, they have usually become old-fashioned where they had originated.

However, as far as the newly invented concept “Tri-Sector Leadership”, I’m very excited to find it in the current issue of the “Harvard Business Review”. You may now wonder what it is. So, let’s take a look at what the originators say as below:

The critical challenges society faces — such as water scarcity, access to education, and the rising cost of healthcare —  increasingly require the business, government and nonprofit sectors to work together to create lasting solutions. But this is only possible if the senior executives of our leading institutions are what Dominic Barton, Worldwide Managing Director of McKinsey & Company, refers to as “tri-sector athletes” —  leaders able to engage and collaborate across all three sectors.

There are so many challenges in the world we have to address immediately, while they have become more and more complicated due to the complexity of the modern world. In order to tackle them effectively, all the resources in three sectors, that is to say, “government”, “business” and “civil society” must be combined and used. The tri-sector leadership is capable of doing so effectively thanks to its personal background. Such a leadership is defined to have the following characteristics:

Balanced motivations. A desire to create public value no matter where they work, combining their motivations to wield influence (often in government), have social impact (often in nonprofits) and generate wealth (often in business)

Transferable skills. A set of distinctive skills valued across sectors, such as quantitative analytics, strategic planning and stakeholder management

Contextual intelligence. A deep empathy of the differences within and between sectors, especially those of language, culture and key performance indicators

Integrated networks. A set of relationships across sectors to draw on when advancing their careers, building top teams, or convening decision-makers on a particular issue

Prepared mind. A willingness to pursue an unconventional career that zigzags across sectors, and the financial readiness to take potential pay cuts from time to time

Intellectual thread. Holistic subject matter expertise on a particular tri-sector issue by understanding it from the perspective of each sector

When I left the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2005 after having served for 12 years as a (rather successful) career diplomat, everybody whom I encountered asked me the same question: “Why did you quit such an eminent job?” Whenever asked so, I always replied as follows:

“Well, I’ve been somehow feeling a wind which continues to push me forward. To react on it correctly, I must try to be as free as possible, I suppose.”

Of course, nobody understood it and believed me (at least in Japan). Instead, many people suspected I would have run for a election of the National Diet, as other former young bureaucrats did at that time.

Sincerely, I didn’t have any ambition to become a politician. During my career in Kasumigaseki, or the Japanese democracy, I’ve fully understood politicians can never do what they really want, except for prime minisiter. To become prime minister, we must overcome lots of hardships in Nagatacho, or the Japanese domestic political scenes, for nearly 30 years. Within 30 years, the world will change so drastically that our own readiness to make it better will easily have become decayed. From the beginning of my new voyage, I just wanted to do the right thing and make Japan and the rest of the world peaceful and prosperous. That is not compatible with a Japanese traditional ambition in the domestic politics, I firmly believe.

After having acted as entrepreneur, CEO, author and trainer of human resource management for 9 years, I can now speak three different languages: In Kasumigaseki and Nagatacho, I can behave appropriately as a former diplomat, while all the bureaucrats and politicians will listen to what I’m telling. To business leaders, I speak in a totally different language, so that they can understand how I want to make the world better. Last but not least, I always enjoy communications with the civil society through social media (This weblog in English is one of my projects in this regard), while it recognizes me as author.  Based on that, I’ve been gradually trying to tackle bigger issues as before, such as tritiated water from the first nuclear reactor in Fukushima.

Now I finally understand what I am. I’ve been seeking the Japanese style of tri-sector leadership. To combat current global uncertainty, the world really needs cross-border network of such a leadership. At first, I’ll begin to make a platform where Japanese tri-sector leaders can get together for the better world in the future. They should be world-class “Ryoma Sakamoto” in the 21st century.

Anyway…

It seems one of the critical moments in the Japan bubble will come next week: My closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me the latest results of his statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225 index as below:

20140117    -1    16553.73    over 806.53
20140120    -1    16707.93    over 973.47
*20140121    -1    16204.12    over 469.66
*20140122    -1    16099.6     over 365.14
20140123    -1    16409.3      over 74.84
20140124    -1    16119.55    over 385.09
20140127    -1    16152.87    over 418.41
*20140128    1    15631.31    over -103.15
20140129    -1    15978.26    under 243.8
20140130    -1    15905.91    over 171.45
20140131    -1    15891.09    over 156.63
20140203    -1    15889.56    over 155.1
20140204    -1    15888.03    over 153.57
20140205    -1    15886.45    over 151.99

My adaptive unconscious says the Japanese stock market will sharply go up from around January 21 but fall suddenly within a week. After that, the human kind will step into the unknown world with a complexy of combined risks all over the world.

Be careful and stay tuned…

Forbidden Column? I Never Give UP!!

I’ve just arrived at Hong Kong. Why in Hong Kong?? Because I’m invited to attend this years’s meeting of the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) to be held from tomorrow. I already participated in this forum twice, but only in private capacity. This time, the Hong Kong’s authority officially asks me to come here, because it really needs enhanced presence in the international media Especially in Japan, this forum is not broadly known in the public. I’m asked to report afterwards in Japanese what’s up there. Of course, I’ve got any instruction from the authority what to write and not to write.

I’ve just written, “Hong Kong needs enhanced presence in the international media.” Why?? You can easily find the answer in this paper published by the City of London. In this analysis, which is also not paid attention to in the Japanese public, Shanghai is praised as the top runner in the Asian financial market. Hong Kong is apparently disgraced, even though the British government directly made an agreement with the Hong Kong Authority to promote Renminbi in Europe. The question is, which city the City of London actually selected as its main partner, “Shanghai” or “Hong Kong”??

I personally suppose the answer is “Neither, nor”. That means the third party could be preferred at the final stage. Its name is …”Tokyo”!!!  Nobody believes that, I know, I know. However, I appreciate if you’ll take a little bit time to read through the above mentioned report by the City. You can easily understand what I mean, while Tokyo is not excluded as the candidate in this report.

Anyway…

Just before my departure to this Chinese city of Dragon, a terrible thing happened and threatened my own presence in the Japanese media. I published a column on the Japanese eminent internet media called “TOYO KEIZAI” about tritiated water emitted by the first nuclear reactor in Fukushima. In this column, I briefly referred to a operation test by a Japanese venture to be undertaken on January 14 at a certain famous national university. The point is the enterprise will test a high technology of nuclear transmutation, which almost all the scientists have been disregarding as fake. My column gave therefore a deep impact in the Japanese public, and a lot of so-called “experts” harshly criticized it. Finally, the editorial department of the TOYO KEIZAI decided to delete the column and not to accept my contribution any more.

1933-may-10-berlin-book-burning

This is a kind of “Book Burnings”, don’t you think so??? Even in Japan, an advanced country with full commitment to human rights,  you can find such a censorship. Can you believe it??

But…I never give up. Unfortunately, the operation test was postponed and is now being rescheduled. As soon as its results will be revealed, I’ll report that on my Japanese weblog and my contribution in the Japanese version of “Yahoo! news”. In the era of the internet and social media, there are many loop holes for those who really want to express truths, I think.

Last but not least, I’ll mention what will go up in the global macro. My closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me the latest result of his statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225 as follows:

20140108    1    15786.82    under -27.55
*20140109    -1    16089.61    under -31.84
20140110    -1    16131.56    over 251.23
20140114    -1    16153.19    over 272.86
20140115    -1    16295.63    over 415.3
20140116    -1    16516.24    over 635.91
20140117    -1    16523.62    over 643.29
20140120    -1    16677.13    over 796.8
20140121    -1    16152.16    over 271.83
*20140122    -1    16044.22    over 163.89
20140123    -1    16373.74    over 493.41
20140124    -1    16068.4       over 188.07
20140127    -1    16069.31    over 188.98
20140128    -1    16069.96    over 189.63
20140129    -1    16071.81    over 191.48
20140130    -1    16073.11    over 192.78
20140131    -1    16072.99    over 192.66
20140203    -1    16071.59    over 191.26
20140204    -1    16070.16    over 189.83
20140205    -1    16068.66    over 188.33

Hmmm… The critical date will be “January 22”, a day before the announcement of the forth coming election of the Mayor of Tokyo. I suspect not only politics but also economy will suddenly begin to move forward from that date. On that day, you will abruptly understand why Prime Minister Hosokawa resigned in early 90’s without any scerious reasons. Stay tuned…