After my visit to Almaty, Kazakhstan, I’m now focusing on whether a massive turbulance would occur in the latter half of the forthcoming May in the Japanese financial market. You might then wonder, “Why in the latter half of May?” In order to understand the reason, I’ll explain the simple logic of what I’m now thinking as follows:
– Japanese Prime minister Abe once made it clear that his government will decide whether the consumption tax rate could be raised to 10 percent based on indices of economic performance during the third quarter of this year in Japan.
– Under this circumstance, we can’t help imaging the Japanese stock market will sharply go up during this period. The typical indices such as “TOPIX” and “Nikkei 225” should be included as decisive indices in the above mentioned context, so that the GOJ will made efforts to raise it drastically by all means.
–The bazooka will be shot not by the BOJ but by the GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund ) this time (Maybe in June). Finance minister Aso, who is very famous for blurting out government’s secret, already leaked the hidden strategy of the GOJ in this regard.
My adaptive unconscious now suggests a turbulance could suddenly blow in global macro up just before the Japanese market will be booming. In accordance with “Le Chatelier’s principle”, the market falls in advance, when they will go up. The question is the market’s collapse has already come or will come in the near future. We can theoretically regard drastic correction especially in the first quarter of this year as such a phenomenon, while it can’t simply be sufficient to let the Japanese market jump up. If the latter will be the case, we must take into account something dramatic and significant indeed will happen suddenly and affect the financial market negatively.
Besides speculation, one thing is clear: The more Prime minisiter bears hardship, the more enthusiastically he drives the asset bubble in Japan. This is the very reason why Obama didn’t agree on the pre-negotiation of TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement) with Abe. Because Japanese prime minisiter’s authority should be endorsed by the USG at least so far, Abe will be facing power struggle soon. If he will fail to manage it, a general election must be held in the near future. It seems that nobody, especially in the LDP, believes that, while some once defeated politicians of the DPJ closely related to US already began to prepare for such a dramatic change of the Japanese politics secretly.
The Japanese traditional leadership after the WW II has been steadily confident of validity of the so-called “Japan-US alliance”. In this alliance, the US has always given frameworks, which Japan had to obey. However, the sea change has just come. The current failure of negotiation no TPP, which I had anticipated in my analysis by the way, made it clear to all the Japanese that US doesn’t take care of Japan any more. For the US leadership, not trade issues but financial transactions vis‐à‐vis Japan is vital, while its nation is now heading to a historical default crisis (maybe in the summer of 2015). Obama was entitled not to agree on TPP with Abe, but to set financial and political explosion in Japan. That’s all. I’m sorry, Minister Amari, our Japanese tough negotiator, but that was decided in advance.
After the 3 days visit to Japan, US President Obama flew to Seoul, where he clarified “the Japanese comfort women system was terrible violation of human rights”. This statement will apparently leads to power struggle against Abe, who will be harshly criticized not to have convinced the US alliance partner of Japan’s claim on this issue.
Anyway, Obama’s mission was successfully completed: Let Abe down immediately. He looks nice but is a bad boy. The next round would begin, as I mentioned above, in the latter half of May, when some risks including geopolitical or financial ones would burst abruptly, without prior notification of the USG to Japan. In Tokyo, Sushi won’t taste good any more. Stay tuned…