Monthly Archives: September 2014

Financial Collapse of Korea and Hidden Truth of JPY/USD

Yesterday evening, I gave a lecture to our potential corporate clients in Otemachi/Tokyo. To my surprise, a breeze of information was delivered to me there by one of my closest financial INTEL partners:

“Behind the door, it is now decided thet one of the biggest banks in Seoul is secretly offered to Japanese buyers. In spite of its huge deposit, the selling price is extremely low. Do you understand what I mean?”

Sometimes, people used to ask me how to gather secrecy and its relevant information. In Japan, there are some self-proclaimed experts of INTEL who massively produce books and articles on how to gather and analyze information and make INTEL of them, such as this.

However, please make sure a professional INTEL man never discloses true stories he obtained including details of his methodology. If he does so, it automatically means either he is a liar, or he doesn’t know anything.

The above mentioned guy neither writes books nor uploads his own agency’s website. Instead, he always does the right things quietly for the sake of Japan. In this mean, he’s a real shadow man and never has interest to be popular in the public. Nevertheless, he is well known among genuine INTEL men beyond borders.

Getting back to the story on Korea, I would take this opportunity to make one thing clear it to you, dear readers: Sudden disposal of a megabank in Seoul indicates without doubt the financial collapse in the ROK will happen in the very, very near future. That will negatively affect not only Japan but also the world community as a whole. After the success story of SAMSUNG, our Korean friends unfortunately turn out not to be genie…

At this juncture, I feel I have to make one more thing clear to you, dear readers. It is related to the on-going, hidden mechanism between JPY and USD.

As you know, USD has surged upwards in the last couple of weeks. So-called “experts” and “analysts” tried to explain the phenomena by saying, “The Fed will advance the date of raising the interest rate.” Because of QQE 2.0 by the Bank of Japan, the interest rate in Japan is kept low. Such a divergence between USD and JPY in terms of interest rate leads to a current depreciation of JPY, they say.

Candidly, it is all the fake story. The Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Fed have been continuing to keep in touch and balance macro economy between Japan and the US: A shadow man is in duty in the Financial Bureau of the MOF, who is entitled to override even decisions to be made by other high-ranking MOF officials. Only he receives instructions from the Fed and control every measure to both appreciate and depreciate JPY.

The point is the situation around this shadow guy has been drastically changed since 2012. The sovereign debt of the GOJ began to surpass net national wealth of the Japanese. It simply means he just lost the most effective measure to control the exchange rate of JPY to USD. The situation is not under control any more, while the outbreak of the Grand Middle East War is approaching. Because this war will inevitably lead to rush for safe havens in the financial market, JPY has been sold beforehand. Once the moment of the truth will come, JPY will be bought massively and be drastically appreciated. This is why USD has rocketed for a while.

Now, imagine what will happen, when the above shown Korean financial collapse will come. This could trigger off the whole mechanism and shows us that we will have reached “the point of no return”. Waiting for this historical turn around of the world order, let’s relax and think of the unthinkable future together…

 

True Intention behind Failed Scottish Independence

Just after having come back from this year’s world tour, I’m now riding on SHINKAN-SEN (New SuperExpress) from Tokyo bound for Nagoya now. Via Nagoya, I’ll get to Hida-Furukawa with my staffs, where our institute will hold a four-days long workshop for Japanese students.

As soon as my arrival from NYC yesterday, I’ve got a wire on the failed Scottish independence. Yesterday night, folks in the City of London sent me a mail news with the following comment:

 In the end, common sense won. The bigger-than-expected 55% to 45% margin of victory for the No vote in Scotland’s referendum should be large enough to prevent the Scottish independence movement from becoming a running sore in British and European politics.

A lot of people will be breathing more easily. Sterling has predictably strengthened. The UK stock market has rallied. The Treasury and the Bank of England can leave untouched their contingency plans to damp potential capital flight from Edinburgh and all-UK financial market unrest. The hugely uncertain experiment of the Scots abandoning British monetary union and setting up their own currency and central banking arrangements will remain, thankfully, an untested option.

Hmmm… I don’t agree with the author of the above mentioned voice of the City, because nobody can define what “common sense” is. The assesment he showed was written basically from the viewpoint of the City, where only “money goes around.” However, it’s too early to judge whether this vote was really a failure or not from all the aspects we can imagine in Scotland’s context.

In this regard, I find Daily Telegraph’s analysis is much more realistic and objective as follows:

Responding to what he called a “clear” rejection of Scottish independence on Friday, David Cameron, who is up for re-election in May 2015, promised to begin a process that would see Scotland granted further powers.

He also said he wanted to see more powers devolved to Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as changes for England, starting with new voting arrangements in Parliament.

In the closing phase of the referendum campaign, Mr Cameron and other party leaders made detailed promises to Scotland, about future funding and new tax and spending powers – a move some of his own lawmakers described as a “panicky” response to opinion polls which suggested the vote was too close to call.

It will be difficult for him to renege.

In order to win back the Scottish popularity, Cameron made too much promises to neglect from now on. Officially speaking, Salmond’s project failed obviously. Nevertheless, an endeavor to establish a “quasi-sovereign state” inside the nation state is successfully continuing there. The situation is somehow similar to Ukraine, even though western mass media seem to never recognize such a similarity.

Taking this opportunity, I’d like to underline the importance of the timing. A few seconds before the outbreak of the Grand Middle East War, “quasi-sovereign states ” inside nations states were endorsed legally. The one is Scotland, while another is East Ukraine. The point is there is one thing which can be recognized as a bridge between these two: The Jewish group called “Ashkenazi“.

In the region of East Ukraine, it is known that there was the kingdom of Khazar, from which Ashkenazi are supposed to have come originally. As for Scotland, Ashkenazi immigrated massively after the 18th century and have been dominating there especially in the big cities such as Edinburgh and Glasgow. In short, both of them are historically close related to Ashkenazi.

In addition, I’d like to draw your attention to Argentina’s default. Argentina is just beginning to suffer from attacks of Jewish vulture funds, while she apparently has got bold bars (“Nazi gold”) which was originally possessed by the Jewish citizens in Europe.  Now you can see a triangle of states which simultaneously emerge as hotspots of the world history: Scotland, East Ukraine and Argentina.

The whole hidden story will be revealing, when the Grand Middle East War will break out very soon, I anticipate. The US and European allies proclaimed a war against the so-called “Islamic State (IS)”, which frightened the Israelis. They are skeptical and reserved. At early stages of the war, the IS will mainly target Islamic states such as Saudi Arabia in this region. However, the war will turn out to be a final war by the Moslems against the Israelis, which will finally lead to a renewed diaspora of the Israelis dominated by the Ashkenazi.

At that moment, three options will be given to the Ashkenazi as safe havens. Those are Scotland, East Ukraine and Argentina. All of them are connected to Jewish history and can be therefore easily accepted by the fleeing Ashkenazi. The State of Israel will be then divided into three parts on the globe. That must be a goal of the hidden strategy pursued by western Sephardic elites, I imagine based on what I experienced so far.

Anyway… The story of Jewish diaspora never ended. It’s just begun. In this mean, yesterday’s vote should be regarded not as a failure but as a decisive milestone for the future we will face very soon. Stay tuned…

 

 

 

Karl Marx’s Message and the Real Japan-Sino Relationship

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After I visited Seattle to attend the BOAO Asia Forum on Energy and Sustainability as I posted before, I’m staying now in Berlin with an unforgettable memory on Bishkek. Yes, this year’s world tour has been still going on and had a little bit time to go around in Berlin, my second home town, yesterday.

The photo shown above is Karl Marx’s message you can find in the Foyer of main building at the Humboldt University, former Berlin University. Roughly interpreting, it says:

 

“Philosophers have interpreted the world in different ways, however, the important thing is to change the world.”

 

Hmmm… Every single elites in the former communist regime of the GDR (German Democratic Republic) must have seen it every day and thought of what it meant for him/her. Of course, it’s ridiculous the regime which never meant to be changed originally shows such a revolutionary message to its future elites. However, the dream came true, when the Fall of the Berlin Wall suddenly happened.

This time, I paid a visit to the German Foreign Office, or so-called “AA (Auswaertiges Amt)”. I’m afraid I didn’t write to you, dear readers, that I was given an education not only by the Japanese but also German foreign service. It was in 1996 (18 years ago!!) that I was instructed by my boss to take part in the kick off course for the trainees of the German diplomatic service, who passed entrance exam to become career diplomats.  The course was held in the AA’s legendary training center in Ippendorff, a rural district close to Bonn, the former capital of the FRG. I took apart in the course for three months, while I was really treated as if I were a German trainee. Can you imagine you would have to get up at 4:00 in the early morning to check more than 10 newspapers in both German and English, and then do a short briefing on what’s important to know for vice minister of the AA?? It was really a touch experience, nevertheless, I really enjoyed it and now, it’s a good memory in my life.

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My former German colleagues, or “Crew Kollegen” ,  welcomed me in the HQ of AA, which I appreciated so much. Even though I had never met them for almost 16 years (!!), they treated me as if I were still given the training course there. Without any hesitation, they regarded me as one of their “Crew Kollegen” and began spontaneously to exchange our views on the current world affairs. It is often said in other parts of the world that German bureaucracy is awfully closed to outsiders.  It’s obviously not true, I think. Once you can grasp the rules which are applied to daily life of German bureaucrats and get used to them,  you can be allowed even to take a lunch in their cosy canteen as if you were a part of them. I really love such a open culture of the AA, while remembering imtrovertness of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

During our conversation, one of my “Crew Kollegen” asked me how to perceive the current Japan-Sino territorial dispute on the Senkaku islands.  Having a breakfast in Seattle together, the real organizer of the BOAO Asia forum behind the door had asked me the same question. While the ordinary Japanese tend to regard foreign disputes such as ones in Ukraine and the Middle East as current geopolitical risks, friends living in other parts of the world believes rather this dispute between Japan and the PRC must be taken care of. Otherwise, they believed further, the second Japan-Sino war would break out.

To be honest, such a claim really sounds silly (Ooops! I’m sorry). But the point is decision makers and their staffs abroad seem to stick to this kind of imagination. I’ve been finally believing why the Japanese stock market hasn’t soar as drastically as the self-proclaimed “ABENOMICS” originally had planned. Our foreign friends believe the opposite were the case. This is one of the truths you, my dear Japanese readers, never know, I’m afraid.

Of course, I took this opportunity to explain what the truth is between the PRC and Japan as follows:

– While the both countries are now trying to hold a summit meeting at a fringe of the forthcoming APEC summit to be held in November in Beijing, they are lack of motivation to escalate the dispute. Rather, they will surely calm down and their governments try to stop poeple’s hostile attitude to each other even in the internet.

– This issue is, to be honest, a so-called “non-issue”, since the islands were already given by the very hard core of Japanese power to its Chinese counterpart (Attention: not the government of PRC but also the real power network of the Chinese behind the door) after the WWII in accordance with the international private law.

– It’s not the Government of PRC but its powerful opposition in the regime that has been trying to escalate the issue, so that the regime of Mr. Xi Jinping won’t be stabilized. On the other hand, his counterpart, the Japanese PM Abe, obviously concerns about possible intervention by the USG to East Asian affairs. This is the very reason why he, Mr. Shinzo ABE, still pretends as if he had no interest in historical reconciliation with the Chinese.

 

Anyway… the world community is “globalized”, but the truth can’t be “globalized” and is still kept secret beyond borders.  Listening to J. Brahm’s Piano quartet arranged by A. Schoenberg in the Berlin Philharmony hall yesterday,  I become fully aware of my capacity as missionary of the truth. And my world tour is going on…

Strategy of the Second Most Hated Country

 

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This week, I finally left Japan for a round trip on the globe. First of all, I had reached Seattle and have been participating the BOAO Forum for ASIA on Energy and Sustainability. As far as I know, this is the very first conference of this forum, which is being held outside the PRC.

Actually, I’ll get back to Japan “just for transit” after this conference soon and fly further to Bishkek via Istanbul. That is to say, I’ll change the direction of this year’s round trip from eastbound to westbound. The reason for such a drastic change is quite simple: I just want to see by myself how deep the US-Sino relationship is in fact. Thanks to daily propaganda by the Japanese mass media, every single Japanese believes a US-Sino war could break out at any moment. When you would listen only to political discourses in the D. C., you might easily believe in such a dramatic possibility. However, when you come to the west coast, you just find another reality, which is apparently different from what made you believe in the above mentioned war propaganda: A typical symbiosis between the Chinese and descendants of western immigrants.

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During the DAY 1 of this forum, I was given a rare opportunity to see a legendary man “behind the US-Sino scene”: Mr. Sidney Rittenberg. While he delivered a short speech during yesterday’s official dinner in the Seattle Center, my neighbor, a venture capitalist with deep experiences in ROPPONGI/TOKIO, told me how legendary Mr. Rittenberg is in terms of the historical bilateral relationship between the two countries. I must say honestly, any Japanese diplomats of the self-proclaimed “China school” doesn’t know who he is. The audience from the US obviously showed sincere respect to this old man, who had been arrested even twice in the Chinese communist regime.

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In addition to this surprise,it was also very much inspiring for me to get know how fluently Mr. Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM, can speak in Chinese. As a guest speaker in the dinner, he successfully joked in both English and Chinese. My another neighbor, who also jumped out from the diplomatic world like me and joined the secretariat of this forum, talked meanwhile to me in whispers that the next year’s external session of the forum will be held in Sidney thanks to official invitation extended by the Australian. “Why don’t you fix to hold it in Seattle?”, I asked. He simply answered, “Well, we just received invitations one after another. The venue in 2016 will be New Delhi.” While PM Modi paid the previous visit to Japan, Japanese media argued based on enthusiastic briefing of GOJ officials that India agreed with Japan on a containment policy against India. The fact is the Indian elites pretend to do so to get intensified direct investment from Japan. It is the Japanese leadership of both politics and industry that doesn’t understand this kind of rule of strategic games in Asia.

Last but not least, the former neighbor taught me one more truth. “Do you know the strategic goal of US diplomacy in the Pacific Rim?”, he asked. Laughing at my puzzled expression, he continued: “The American always try to be the second most hated people. As far as they maintain this position, it’s easy for them to penetrate into all other countries in this region. Look at current antagonism around Japan. While Japan hates Korea and Japan, she can’t help asking US to assist herself. That’s it.”

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To accomplish “Pax Japonica”, the Japanese leadership should begin with this sort of simple but effective rules of game in both the Pacific Rim and Asia. Otherwise, Japan has no hope to survive in the “Realpolitik”.