Last week, I had an opportunity to meet a very famous, leading banker of one of Japanese megabanks in Tokyo. I asked him an honest question I had been bearing in mind recently: “What do you think of the future of ABENOMICS?”
Smiling spontaneously, the banker who is said to have a close relationship with hidden assets of the Japanese imperial family, responded to it as follows:
“Well, before you’re coming, I welcomed one of co-founders of the Carlyle Group from the States. He raised the same issue, and I explained to him that the third arrow of ABENOMICS wasn’t let off yet. We’re all still waiting for that.”
For those foreign readers who are not familiar with Japanese affairs, I’d like to give you an additional explanation. The so-called “third arrow” of ABENOMICS was already let off, officially saying. Nevertheless, everybody knows its poor contents to boost the Japanese economy. The banker obviously implied the Japanese financial world doesn’t regard it as appropriate measures for further growth of the Japanese real economy. This perception gap between the GOJ and financial industry leads to accelerating stagnation in this country.
By saying so, I never mean ABNOMICS is worthless. I highly appreciate PM Abe who is not well known for his expertise on economy, tried hard to surprise the international community by a sudden change of direction to massive quantitative easing of the BOJ. In addition, he has made great efforts to go abroad as often as he could, in order to show his foreign counterparts what the ABENOMICS is intended to be.
However, the point is PM Abe is lack of sense of both entrepreneurship and innovation. As a son of legendary Japanese conservative politician “Shintaro ABE“, he is a born politician. Not an entrepreneur at all, which always seeks added values in economy. Even though he is said to be surrounded by a lot of technical innovations to potentially boost the Japanese economy in a drastic manner, he can’t simply point out and pick up some of them as leading technologies for Japan’s future, which should be intensively supported by the government. Instead, he always relies on the bureaucracy, especially the METI, which has been never capable of making right decisions to make the Japanese economy prosperous and sustainable.
I personally stick to my basic scenario which says the second phase of Japan’s bubble economy will come soon. After a violent reversal of what we’ve seen in the world so far, Japan will suddenly emerge as the ultimate safe haven. Thanks to the fact Japan is immune to Islamic terrorism and outbreak of Ebola virus, Japan will be regarded as so. The on-going historical QE of the BOJ plus massive inflow of foreign capital will restart Japan’s bubble at the border between 2014 and 2015.
But, don’t be deceived by the Japanese tricky grand-strategy! This second version of Japan’s asset bubble is intended to hyperinflate her economy, which will make the GOJ’s sovereign debt almost valueless. Of course, the Japanese economy will be totally destroyed.
What you shouldn’t disregard is the world community will then fear the GOJ would sell out US Treasury bond and bill which it has been holding for a long time. The fear will be dramatized when Japan suddenly tries rapprochement with the PRC and resume Sino-Japanese financial cooperation. How to defend their joint strategy to contain and reverse the financial hegemony of the States will be suddenly the top priority for the US-American leadership. Unfortunately, it’ll be too late, and the USJ will be forced to declare its default. The collapse of the US-American political system will finally free Japan from her agreement with the USG to sacrifice all her national wealth to the American, in order to save the Japanese imperial house. Such a secret agreement between Japan and the US was reached just after the WWII, which has been never taught in any schools in Japan.
As you know, the US-American leadership isn’t foolish enough to just wait for such a dramatic change of its position in the international community. To deal with the real power-holder in Japan, it will surely attack then both authenticity and authority of the imperial power. It will try to put up those Japanese people on the street who are feeling a sense of alienation due to financial collapse of the Japanese economy. Manipulated indirectly by the US intelligence services through social media, they will publicly cast doubt on the Japanese imperial system and renovate the whole political system with dethronement of the emperor.
Now, you see how serious our common future around Japan will be. To let you be much more familiar with this issue, I just relaesed my new book entitled ” Revived Shinkichi UESUGI. How to react on revival of constitutional theory for the Japanese emperor’s sovereignty.” on October 24. It describes the current climax of what I’m seeing while anticipating the future. Check it out and share the sense of impending crisis.