Monthly Archives: October 2015

Not China but Japan Really Matters.

emperor_Japan

Currently, everyone seems to stares at what’s going on in PRC. Because of the latest financial turmoil caused by a series of dramatic events in August and September in the country, we normally believe China primarily matters. To be honest, I also did do so until yesterday, while a connoisseur of global affairs, who’s deeply involved in the basement of genuine Japan-US “alliance” since the end of WWII, kindly told me the following: “Don’t believe fake stories mass media have been making to public. It’s not China but Japan, our mother country, really matters.”

Ms. Yellen, Chairperson of FRB, postponed the final decision to raise interest rate in the last session of FOMC. Why? The reason is allegedly that she’s extremely concerned about the status quo of Chinese economy after the above shown turmoil. However, it’s not the case. In terms of any significant decision on financial matters, USG never take into account situation of PRC’s economy seriously, even though it pretends as if it does so.

Instead of that, USG is, as I mentioned beforehand, always concerned rather about how steadily the Japanese economy is growing. Based on a written but totally hidden agreement between top leaders of US and Japan since 1945, the latter has been obliged to transfer JPY as many as the former needs and wants. That means, as long as the Japanese economy can move forward, the US can survive even in the midst of difficulties on how to further finance the federal debt. Japan is the very “magic mallet”, which seems to be never allowed to refuse requests from US to print JPY to be transferred to its deposit.

“Those who are in charge of controlling the whole system, suddenly began to check the balance sheet of Bank of Japan recently”, told the connoisseur to me. Despite of concerns these “men behind the door” share, BOJ doesn’t stop its historical QE. That isn’t actually per se the very problem. The point is Japanese commercial banks, which are de facto obliged to get the money generated from the BOJ’s QE, don’t make effort to lend it to their retail and corporate customers. Instead of doing so, they just “hoard” it, as they have done since the collapse of the Heisei bubble economy from 1990s. Because the Japanese version of QE fails to boost the economy, only the huge amount of BOJ’s debt is left behind.

This is a very, very bad news for USG. From a certain point, BOJ will become incapable of printing money for USG any more in the very near future, because of its uncontrollable B/S. In such a situation, USG normally threatens the then Japanese Prime Minister to take “draconic measures” for the sake of US economy. Nevertheless, the current Japanese PM, Shinzo ABE, never shows his willingness to change his policy called “ABENOMICS”, which obviously fails.

Having heard the lecture given by the connoisseur, who now seem to endeavor to make huge profit from business rather with Chinese friends, I’ve been slightly feeling breeze of the genuine Japanese born leadership from the ancient time. Even those who have been working for the Japan-US alliance as its financial “caretaker”, aren’t informed of the leadership’s intention, I suppose. What I personally know is that the Japanese born leadership made up its mind to end the disgusting postwar period so far and finally change the Japanese history to the correct direction towards “Pax Japaponica”. In order to do so, US economy needs to be sacrificed.

Alea iacta est. Japan really matters. Don’t forget it.

Manifest Destiny Reveals.

corporate_warriors

This week, I did nothing but intensively lectures to young employees of a leading company in the Japanese economy. Since 2009, our institute has been contacting the HR unit of the company and tried to persuade our counterparts on the necessity of building up a teaching program for employees in terms of “information literacy”, the indispensable mindset and skills to anticipate the future based on OSINT and scenario planning. Thanks to the ambitious CEO, who has personally encountered the western-dominated structure of the global business community, we succeeded to do so and began to work on the program.

The situation, which surrounds the program, is, of course, extremely unique on the one hand, but on the other hand quite typical for Japanese big corporates: To keep on economic growth, the company has been repeating M&A of foreign companies in the same sector. To manage them both effectively and profitably, it urgently needs more human resources than ever, which are capable of doing global business. Nevertheless, only those unexperienced employees are left in Japan who obviously have difficulties to communicate in English.

The point is the fact these young employees are rather praised in terms of their accomplishments in the domestic market. Their colleagues, who are “globalized” from the very beginning, tend to have difficulties to overcome there. Even though the portion of the company’s sales in the global sector has been getting bigger and bigger, the Japanese domestic market is, at least from the viewpoint of its CEO, the central pillar which can be never lost. Simultaneously, the global business should be prioritized much more than before due to the accelerated declining of the Japanese market. This kind of a dilemma really matters and has to be immediately tackled by brushing up its HR education policy.

“The moment of truth” has come for my institute: Based on the unchanged fact that the majority of the Japanese hasn’t acquired English language skills at all, their attention should be drawn rather to the dynamism of global macro per se as the origin of both global business and the world history. Whenever I succeed to attract their interest in it, they will automatically lead to learn foreign language including English by themselves. Otherwise, they will never understand the necessity of foreign language skills. This is a quite simple principle to follow, however, conventional training programs of human resources in Japanese corporates are used to do exactly the opposite: They concentrate on foreign language skills at first, and disregard the necessity to intellectually motivate their employees to get involved in global business.

Thanks to devoted assistance given by the secretariat, our training program was completed with great success. As the lecturer all through the one-week program, I’m proud of its results: The young participants understood in depth what global macro is and awfully motivated to move forward towards their dual career between “go global” and “lead domestically”.

Last but not least, another phenomenon has just begun to reveal around my institute: Unfortunately, my colleagues and I fail to attract interest of Japanese students, whom we’re giving exactly the same program in the framework of our CSR. This year, we’ve tried to gather those students who love to encounter the global community. Needless to say, they have brilliant English language skill especially in terms of speaking and chatting. But they haven’t been obviously given any opportunities to learn how to behave appropriately in accordance with situations surrounding them. In addition, their intellectuality closely related to vast amount of reading can never be shown, since they don’t have it. In the course of time, my colleagues and I have got convinced of the failure of this year’s teaching program for these “global-oriented” students.

I myself interpret the fact rather positively according to the Le Chatelier’s principle: While the Japanese business world is approaching to my institute in an accelerated manner by asking our institute to give lectures, another task such as educating students “voluntarily” is losing the meaning in an irreversible way. Now that the both is appearing simultaneously, I’m feeling my manifest destiny. It’s not students but motivated “corporate warriors” of Japanese corporates that are the ones whom my institute should aim at from now on to evade the forthcoming Japan’s default. At the dawn of the brand new story, I’m already excited towards the future.

US Default and Great Earthquake in California

SanFransisco_Megaearthquake_1906

There are only three ways out, from which we can get rid of the lasting economic turmoil: “war”, “inflation”, and “innovation”. This is why central bankers have been making efforts to accelerate “quantitative easing” to boost the economy, which is the second option. However, this almost turns out to fail recently, having seen the FRB hasn’t made up its mind to raise the US interest rate.

Instead of that, the world leadership seems to pick up rather the first option: Heading to war economy to raise demands in the market. Nevertheless, the leaders can hardly declare to begin the WW III, while even the people on the street are entitled to speak out to the public thanks to social media such as Facebook and Twitter. To begin a war, the rulers need to make the people believe a fake story, which is closely related with antagonism vis-à-vis certain countries as “enemies”. In the era of social media, however, truths always reveal, as we usually seek them by “retrieval” with google. Practically, the above shown first option doesn’t work these days.

Based on this argument, I personally believe only one pragmatic option is left for us: “innovation”. Towards the next year’s B20 process, I’m about to launch our institute’s initiative for “global innovation ecosystem”. This is exactly why I held an intensive meeting with Accenture as de facto “permanent knowledge partner” of B20 the day before yesterday in Paris.

On the way back to Tokyo, my closest alliance partner, Mr. HKD, whom I frequently mentioned in this column, kindly sent a message to me by saying JPY/USD rate could be appreciated from 13 to 17 of November. He referred to that analysts in the financial markets are said to have begun even to discuss a possibility of US default in the mid-November, conditioned that US Congress won’t accept to raise the federal debt limit.

Thanks to his statistical analysis, I’ve been aware of the fact investors secretly bet on sudden appreciation of JPY/USD from the above mentioned period, and thinking of the reason why. But it’s true that this story on “possible” US default repeated itself since the current financial meltdown began, which nobody believes any more, even though it’s been reported that US Treasury has emergency plan for default.

To enable the depreciation of USD vis-à-vis JPY, we need another option. Synchronicity in the internet just led me to find it out: “great earthquake in US”. Dr. M. T. Keshe, controversial scientist from Iran, announced his prediction that a mega-earthquake in California would soon split the American continent into the North and South. The point is, of course, “when”. He doesn’t rule out the possibility that such an unprecedented natural disaster might happen even by the end of this year. Imagine what would happen, if this could turn out to be the truth. Massive capital flight would then begin and seek a safe haven in JPY.

If it would be the case, it’s not inflation but another event that Ms. Yellen of FRB has been waiting for: a great earthquake, which automatically will raise demands in the US economy and “rescue” the global economy.

To wrap up, we should become aware of the fact there is the fourth method, with which we could get rid of the lasting economic turmoil: natural disasters. This is closely related to “Pax Japonica” I’ve proclaimed. Can you imagine why??

All the Future in Your Hands.

izakaya

This week, I was privileged to give lectures to two Japanese leading companies. The one belongs to trading companies sector, while another to banking sector. I really love to accept this kind of offers from Japanese leading companies, because I can experience the reality of Japan’s business world face to face by giving lectures and speeches to so-called “salarymen and –women”. While these lectures, I usually don’t hesitate to tell them the very hardcore of truths which global and Japanese leadership have hidden from the public. Otherwise, they can’t move forward based on appropriate analysis of authentic stories on what really happened in the world. In this regard, I’m extremely proud of being “unique” in this education industry for employees.

While I was giving the lectures both in Harumi/Tokyo and Tenri/Osaka, I strongly felt the Japanese type of “middle income crisis” has worsened the situation. For example, I just told a case of typical SME in the western part of Japan to managers of the Japanese semi-megabank, and let them discuss how they can assist its young CEO, who is said to be obviously unwillingly to succeed to her father’s position. The bank’s leadership proudly proclaims that the corporation focusses on the “retail” customers, which actually means rich owners of Japanese SMEs. Since it has been so, I expected the managers would enthusiastically discuss how they could help the poor female CEO to get rid of her dilemma.

To my great surprise, they just rushed to the opposite direction: The managers around 40s began to criticize her and just make a list of “issues” they found remarkable in this case. No solution, and no compassion and sympathy to the poor CEO indeed. Of course, these managers don’t have any evil intent per se. Instead of that, they simply don’t know what “company” as such is and how to run it. For them, to work in the office means to play a role of living cash dispenser. Being trapped of extremely complicated financial regulations, they actually don’ have any more room to innovate. The best solution for their careers is, therefore, to do nothing and calmly stay seated without giving strategic solutions to companies.

This type of typical corporate culture in Japanese big corporates unfortunately reflects the esteemed trading company I mentioned beforehand: The managers, who had the opportunity to listen to my lecture this time, were obviously proud of having been the “salesmen of Japanese economy” to the global market. Nevertheless, they seem not to know which direction the global economy is currently heading to: By connecting the people directly with each other in the internet, any kind of “middlemen” are to be completely eliminated. This is also the case for Japansese “Shousya” or trading companies. From now on, they can’t be too creative and innovative to move forward. Only being accepted as notable innovators by the public and customers, they can’t be regarded as an indispensable part of the market and economy. They are now urged to go beyond the noble lie called “Shale gas and oil revolution”, given by US and rebuild up their innovative cultures based on the untold reality of Japanese and global histories.

Having said all these things, I honestly don’t mean the managers are intellectually incompetent. Originally, they are descendants of legendary Japanese business innovators, who succeeded to reconstruct Japan from mountains of rubble after the WWII. What they urgently need is only the moment of the truth, when they automatically become aware of their born mission to be innovative to lead the Japanese economy. In this regard, Japan’s default in the very near future is essential. Otherwise, life in idleness would be continuing in postmodern Japan, and Japan as a civilization would come to an end in the idleness caused by timelessness (“Kairos”). To enhance preparedness for the moment of the truth, I’ll accelerate to tell the real stories in the Japanese society and economy. Yes, this is my life-long mission to lead to “Pax Japonica”.

Don’t repeat “Too Late and Too Little” Again.

34-35OG連載

After having an extremely successful business meeting in Haikou/Hainan Island, I got back to Japan and am staying in Fukuoka right now. Back to “normalcy” here in Japan. Yesterday, I had meetings with senior bankers of one of the leading local banks here.

What I wanted to discuss with the guys there was how to move forward in B20 process. As I sometimes mentioned beforehand online, it’s really hard for met here in Japan to get a breakthrough in terms of understanding how significant B20 is towards our future. Since every single government official in charge is rather concentrating on G7 summit in Ise/Shima in 2016, it’s hardly possible to draw GOJ’s attention to the B20 process as a whole. Only few senior government officials show their interest in this matter and willingness to get involved, however, only in a temporary manner. Nevertheless, I’ve been trying hard to make them understand what the reality is in the global community.

This is exactly why I visit here in Fukuoka: The “leader of the leadership” in Fukuoka’s financial world is a former senior government official in charge of international finance and well known as a “legend” in the Japanese Ministry of Finance. To get rid of the above shown current difficulties vis-à-vis the Japanese bureaucracy, I wanted to ask him to advise me how to move forward.

The “legend” kindly advised me as follows: “First of all, you need a “concept” everybody can easily understand. As far as I find out in B20’s paper in terms of SME, it obviously lacks for such a concept as, particularly, Japanese government officials understand. Just focus and try to make a concept, with which you can penetrate in the B20 process. Only by doing so, other leading participants of the process from western countries regard your work as indispensable contribution to the whole process. Secondly, don’t rely on individual government officials. Since they are to leave their each positions every two or three years, relying on them lead to discontinuity. That affects, of course, your effort negatively, when you’ll be working on B20 process. Always try to be independent of GOJ and rely only on yourself as a Japanese actor in the global community. “

That was a Copernican revolution for me, since I’ve been always thinking of how to involve GOJ to B20 process. NO, from now on, I should stick to work on the process itself and make as much substantial contribution as possible regardless of GOJ’s assistance. Otherwise, I would be involved in typical mistakes GOJ used to make: “Too late and too little”. In this regard, Fukuoka was, at least for me, worthy of visiting, although you never know such a “legend” always welcomes there those Japanese intellectual successors who are about to initiate the global community.