There are only three ways out, from which we can get rid of the lasting economic turmoil: “war”, “inflation”, and “innovation”. This is why central bankers have been making efforts to accelerate “quantitative easing” to boost the economy, which is the second option. However, this almost turns out to fail recently, having seen the FRB hasn’t made up its mind to raise the US interest rate.
Instead of that, the world leadership seems to pick up rather the first option: Heading to war economy to raise demands in the market. Nevertheless, the leaders can hardly declare to begin the WW III, while even the people on the street are entitled to speak out to the public thanks to social media such as Facebook and Twitter. To begin a war, the rulers need to make the people believe a fake story, which is closely related with antagonism vis-à-vis certain countries as “enemies”. In the era of social media, however, truths always reveal, as we usually seek them by “retrieval” with google. Practically, the above shown first option doesn’t work these days.
Based on this argument, I personally believe only one pragmatic option is left for us: “innovation”. Towards the next year’s B20 process, I’m about to launch our institute’s initiative for “global innovation ecosystem”. This is exactly why I held an intensive meeting with Accenture as de facto “permanent knowledge partner” of B20 the day before yesterday in Paris.
On the way back to Tokyo, my closest alliance partner, Mr. HKD, whom I frequently mentioned in this column, kindly sent a message to me by saying JPY/USD rate could be appreciated from 13 to 17 of November. He referred to that analysts in the financial markets are said to have begun even to discuss a possibility of US default in the mid-November, conditioned that US Congress won’t accept to raise the federal debt limit.
Thanks to his statistical analysis, I’ve been aware of the fact investors secretly bet on sudden appreciation of JPY/USD from the above mentioned period, and thinking of the reason why. But it’s true that this story on “possible” US default repeated itself since the current financial meltdown began, which nobody believes any more, even though it’s been reported that US Treasury has emergency plan for default.
To enable the depreciation of USD vis-à-vis JPY, we need another option. Synchronicity in the internet just led me to find it out: “great earthquake in US”. Dr. M. T. Keshe, controversial scientist from Iran, announced his prediction that a mega-earthquake in California would soon split the American continent into the North and South. The point is, of course, “when”. He doesn’t rule out the possibility that such an unprecedented natural disaster might happen even by the end of this year. Imagine what would happen, if this could turn out to be the truth. Massive capital flight would then begin and seek a safe haven in JPY.
If it would be the case, it’s not inflation but another event that Ms. Yellen of FRB has been waiting for: a great earthquake, which automatically will raise demands in the US economy and “rescue” the global economy.
To wrap up, we should become aware of the fact there is the fourth method, with which we could get rid of the lasting economic turmoil: natural disasters. This is closely related to “Pax Japonica” I’ve proclaimed. Can you imagine why??