After having enjoyed yesterday’s fantastic concert by the NYP in the Arvin Fisher Hall, I’m now staying in the Washington Hilton. Usually, I choose “Westins”, wherever I stay on the globe. However, “Westins” are said to be fully occupied in Washington for unknown reasons. Although Hilton is quite unfamiliar to me, I made up my mind to choose a “Hilton” to stay. Let’s see whether that’s a good choice or not.

Before referring further to my analysis on global macro, I must say “Thank you very much!” to all my friends outside of Japan, to whom I introduced this new blog in English either per facebook oer via eMail. The statistic gathered by the wordpress shows they are so friendly to me that they really took a look at the blog. Thank you again and please enjoy further the posts.

Anyway…

As I predicted in the last post, the Nikkei obviously started to jump up. But don’t get crazy now, since this is simply the beginning of the whole story. My closest allaince partner I mentioned at the last time (Let’s call him “HKD” from now on) has just shown his statistical analysis to me, which implies the “true drama” will begin at October 22. Maybe, a sort of “sea change” will be seen from October 17, he added.

From my view of OSINT analyst, you should now keep eyes on the following events and factors:

-Even though the US President Obama had refused to negotiate with the GOP in any ways, he changed his mind and met the leading congressmen of the Republican one by one since yesterday, without making clear “why now”.

-Ms. Yellen was finally chosen as the next FRB boss. People just expect the current QE wouldn’t be changed drastically, since Ms. Yellen is politically responsible for the QE policies with Mr. Bernanke.

– Based on a naive berief that these political decisions in the US would “make the world better”, the stock markets such as one in Japan (see the above mentioned Nikkei 225) has dramatically risen worldwide since then.

-Besides that, it’s also important to notice the new round of the Six party talks vis-a-vis Iran will hopefuly begin next week in Geneva/Switzerland. That is quite good for reducing the ME geopolitical risks, but not good for the Israelis, which fear to be abondaned by the Obama administration.

-The critical “moment of the truth” should come in the second week of the forthcoming November because of a US-Russo joint project: The Peace Conference for Syria. However, let’s imagine what would happen if it would fail. Stay tuned.

-And don’t forget President Kirchner of Argentina. Her government just decided to continue its fatal fight against US vulture funds, which have claimed full payments of Argentina’s bond in the time of its default in 2002. The US supreme court had indirectly decided not intervene to this matter. Of course, Ms. Kircher can continue the fight as long as she wants.  The point is rather whether foreign investors can tolerate such a meaningless political soap drama. In this regard, “the moment of the truth” will come as soon as they want.

-Last but not least, a fresh news ”from the NASA”. In the internet sphere, a rumor has traveled quickly, which points out “NASA will announce a big news on November 13 that will cause a significant impact on the whole world.” What is it??

I don’t want to rely on conspiracy theories, please don’t worry. But if I were President of the US, I would also postpone evey important decision to be made till the whole situation will be made clear, as Obama now seems to do. Again, the schedule of “the moment of the truth” was just rescheduled for later, maybe the second week of November, I suppose.

When the stock market rebounds dramatically without any obvious reasons, we must prepare for its dramatic fall which will just follow the rebound. This is related to the so-called “Le Chatelier’s principle“, which can in fact be applied to everything on the globe. I will try to explain later on what it is.

Don’t forget “Tsunami always comes after euphoria”. And now that the euphoria has just begun in a short term, you should know what to do right now.