Monthly Archives: May 2014

Epilog of ABENOMICS Has Just Begun

SPIEF2014 "Open Data"

Having come back to Tokio, I found the secretariat of SPIEF 2014 had already uploaded the video of what I discussed with other participants during the session entitled “Open Data”. While others still concentrated on how to make open data, I tried to describe why it is urgently needed in the international community. In the era of “irregularity of the solar activity”, “climate change (especially “global cooling” in the northern hemisphere)”, “its negative effect to human immune system” plus “possible total deflation of the world economy”, every state government should open its relevant adta to make global common strategic/risk scenario. Based on that, the human society can overcome such a difficulty beyond description. What my institute tries to do is to make this type of global common strategic/risk scenario, which should be actually distributed to all those who become aware of this distress in the very near future.

Now, I’m wondering why I feel that something is wrong with what I’m seeing in the Japanese society every day. Even though this distress must be quite obvious also to all the Japanese theoretically, they still stick only to their own interests. This is why narratives in the Japanese society are totally isolated from what other nations make.  They are still so naive that they firmly believe without any certain reasons what they have been enjoying so far in the daily life would remain forever.

However, the Japanese are now spurred to awake suddenly. Take a look at the index of TSE Mothers. On May 21, it began to rocket and continues to do so. That inevitably leads to a drastic change of another traditional index in Japan called “Nikkei 225”, which just quickens.

TSE Mothers

Nikkei225_20140531

Only a part of the Japanese society is fully aware of which direction it’s heading to. It’s the epilog of ABENOMICS, which was launched abruptly in the very end of 2012 (By the way, you can easily understand how narratives in Japan are totally different from others in the rest of the world, when you recognize the fact that the word “ABENOMICS” was never mentioned during the above shown SPIEF 2014.). In advance, I’ll show you what the Japanese will face in the near future as follows:

At latest on June 10, the Japanese stock market will sharply go up. This will be supported by strategies of both foreign and domestic institutional investors, even though it will take a little bit time that the Japanese retail investors will become aware of this come-back of the Japan’s bubble.

– While the Nikkei 225 index will jump up over 17000 in the early summer, the retail investors will rush for the Japanese stock market. Based on that, it will continues to soar until its index will reach nearly 20000 (!!!).

– But this will be the beginning of the end. Between the latter half of September and the beginning of November, a series of risks such as breakout of the ME war will burst all over the world, which lead to turnover of the previous trend in the market. As the last resort or “safe haven”, Japanese Yen will be sharply appreciated, and the exchange rate of JPY and USD will go even beyond 90 Yen against the dollar. This will, of course, cause a dramatic collapse of the Japanese stock market, which will then called “the end of ABENOMICS”.

– In the accelerating turbulance, PM Abe will be forced to resign and Taro Aso will be elected as his successor.  Current PM Abe will be defeated partly because of his failure of negotiation with DPRK on Japanese abductees. Although the DPRK promised to let a research panel find and rescue them, its final report will deny their existence.

– Despite of lamentation among Japanese retail investors who won’t be able to evade massive loss of their assets, the Japanese stock market will rocket again at latest in the very end of this year.  Then, the people will finally understand the appreciation of JPY will positively affect the stock market like the historical phenomenon in the Heisei bubble in the late 1980’s. The second phase of the Japan’s bubble will be launched and continue till the latter half of 2016.

Again, I’d like to take this opportunity to underline that harsh volatilities we will soon face will be signals given by the SYSTEM, so that all the Japanese will awake and achieve their own mission beyond egoistic interests.  Further survival of the Japanese as nation totally depends on whether they will perceive it. If not, the SYSTEM will heartlessly delete their existence on the globe. In this regard, the global common strategic/risk scenario I mentioned before is inevitable related to the fate of Japan. WACHET AUF, ruft uns die Stimme!!

 

Why Accountability a la Mode??

After having attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2014 as a panelist in the session entitled “OPEN DATA” successfully, I’m now preparing for departure for Riga/Latvia. Because of some technical reasons, I’ll write what I discussed with other participants during the SPIEF next time. Instead, I’ll just pick up another issue which lets me contemplate right now. Take a look at the photo shown below:

KCNA-collapse-building

While Japanese major media obviously disregarded, the KCNA, state-owned news agency in DPRK, reported that the person in charge officially apologized to the public for having made mistaken in construction of a building, which had collapsed with hundreds of victims.

As far as I know as former desk officer for DPRK affairs in the Japanese MOFA, this is the very first time that the authority in Pyongyang admitted its failure in such a large scale publicly. Its unique communism called “Juche ideology” is normally understand in such a way as the authority always does the right things and take no responsibility for what its has done. However, the leadership in DPRK apparently changed the direction and begun to seek accountability a la mode.

Now, you may wonder why, I suppose. From my viewpoint, there are two reasons why Kim Jong-un made a decision to this brandnew direction:

Obviously, Kim Jong-un has just started to gradually show the difference of his leadership from his farther’s. For example, he recently visited an air drill competition with his wife, Ri Sol Ju by plane. In the era of Kim Jong-il, he hardly used air plane officially. Of course, this is still just an example. But you might know how tough a son must be when he tries to cut traditional ties with his own farther.

kinjongun_Risolju

– The propaganda called DPRK’s project for “Strong and Prosperous Nation” in 2012 is usually understood as commemoration of 100th anniversary of his grand farther’s (Kim Il-Sung’s) birthday.  From my viewpoint during daily analysis of global-macro, the year “2012” was intentionally selected in accordance with possible significant sea change in the international community, which could have positively affect the status of DPRK among nations.  The point is the world calendar was unfortunately changed a little bit for unknown reasons, so that Kim Jong-un needs another target year for his nation.  The year “2015” is set for such a drastic change, while he reportedly ordered generals to prepare for breakout of final war in the Korean Peninsula (“Korea War II”). As professional analyst of global-macro, I fully agree with him to choose the year for this critical change, because the world order will be upside down next year. You will finally understand what I mean, when you’ll face “Japan’s Bubble” in the next year for example, which has been regarded as unthinkable so far.

The above mentioned drama of “state accountability a la mode” is one of Kim Jong-un’s trials to prepare for this critical year. Everybody except for connoisseurs of global-macro believes DPRK will begin the fatal war to totally collapse. However, again, please keep in mind that everything will be upside down in 2015. The status of DPRK will be then dramatically changed while its state openess and transparency will be suddenly launched. In this regard, this drama is a kind of etude Kim Jong-un practiced at the final stage before 2015.

You may still doubt what my adaptive unconsciousness tells you, before you will see results of diplomatic talks to be held on May 26 by Japan and DPRK in Stockholm. In order to get so-called “war compensation” from the GOJ, Kim Jong-un has to make a decisive compromise to restart official search for Japanese abductees. Based on the fact that this abduction issues was caused by his farther, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un has to cut his traditional tie with the former. The terminology “state accountability” will play a persuasive role in this context.

Last but not least, I’m wondering who gave such an idea to “Dear Leader” in DPRK. While having attended as panelist in the session “OPEN DATA” in the SPIEF 2014,  other participants from the government of the Russian Federation enthusiastically explained how effective information disclosure and uploading of state data are to stimulate national economy. An unthinkable thesis flashed me that connected Russia and DPRK.

Anyway, what I’m about to say next time is very important.  Stay tuned…

 

 

 

 

Silent Summer of Discontent is Coming…

Yesterday, a publisher sent me an eMail to ask me to revise a script of my column to be published in its online magazine. Actually, this is the second time that this publisher requests me to revise what I wrote. As an author of more than 20 books in both Japanese and German, I found that extremely disgusting. However, I evaded any discussion and instructed my PR staff just to withdraw the script.

Based on such an experience, I’d say a silent summer of discontent is slowly coming in Japan. Not only established mass media but also even internet media in Japan obviously practice self-restraint. They exclude whistle blowers and those who point out something significant beyond frameworks they set by themselves. As I professionally tend to refer to something beyond (or against) common sense for innovation, I’m belonging to the latter category.

At least as for mass media in conventional mean, I can understand the reason for such a behavior. From the beginning, mass media have been used by authorities to set their arbitrary frameworks to brains and minds of people. Experts call this “social control”, which is well known nowadays in the civil society.

Internet media were originally regarded as one of effective countermeasures to the priveledge of mass media. While everybody knows mass media don’t tell the truth, all the innovators rush for internet to get a last resort for the freedom of speech. However, the situation has just begun to be changed dramatically by the newly introduced “digital marketing” in Japan.

When something controversial is pointed out in internet, many Japanese tend to massively write harsh criticism on social media.  This phenomenon is called “ENJYOU” in Japanese (“Going up in flames” in English). There are some famous websites such as this one which intentionally lead to “ENJYOU” on other sites to in order to draw attention of the public to them. At this stage, there is “theoretically” no problem, as the freedom of speech matters except for defamation.

The problem begins when webmaster of sites with controversial references recognizes that as a risk for business. Japanese experts on digital marketing usually recommend owners of websites that they should delete any controversial texts as soon as possible to avoid “ENJOU”. Without researching correctness of what is written thoroughly, they automatically continue this kind of deletion. Based on this trend, innovative thoughts and diversity of ideas are vanishing in many eminent internet media in Japan. What still remains, are either worthless and trashy texts or repetition of frameworks I mentioned above.

In this regard, there is only a place for genuine innovators in the Japanese society: Their owned media. While both traditional mass media and famous online magazines unconsciously rush for obsolescence,  owned medias are last resort for the freedom of speech. The situation was drastically changed, as Google and other providers equip owned media of the individuals with series of digital tools to enhance their effectiveness online.

OISHINBO_SCENE

This week, a very popular comic on gourmet entitled “OISHINBO” was publicly attacked in Japan due to its depiction of hidden relationship between the fatal nuclear disaster in Fukushima and apparent increase of disease afterwards in the Japanese society. While the controversiality as such should have been further discussed openly in public, the publisher decided to give in to harsh criticism from the authorities and suspended serial publication of this comic.

Herewith, I’d like to declare clearly my solidality with Mr. Tetsu KARIYA, author of “OISHINBO” and remind all the readers of essential importance of the freedom of speech for our common future. In the course of increasing volatility in the world community, the ABE administration in Japan apparently makes use of de facto censorship on their inconvenient truth. While a silent summer of discontent is slowly comming here, I’ll further combat every attack from tacit criticism of the socially controlled masses for “Pax Japonica”, our common destiny in the near future.

 

My New Book to Be Released: Why Neo-Japanesque Now?

My New Book: "Japan Moves the World History"

As I got up early in this morning (at around 4:30 am!), I finally found the AMAZON had just begun to sell my new book online. Sorry, my dearest foreign friends who can’t unfortunately understand Japanese, but this book will be published only in Japanese for the time being.

This book is entitled “Japan Moves the World History”. As you might spontaneously recognize, the illustration on cover page is drawn à la Japanesque (Courtesy of Ms. Rin Nadeshico).

Why “Neo-Japanesque” now?? Because I’m quite aware of the time sequence in the near future that will at last let Japan move the world history, while the current civilization led by Europe and US will fatally collapse within 5 years. However, I won’t say Japan will dominate the world without innovating itself drastically. To accomplish that, all the Japanese urgently need the moment of the truth when all of them can awake for the sake of their destiny.

My adaptive unconscious suggests both “the Japanese language” and “music” will play big roles at such a stage of the world history. As I explained on this English weblog previously, the ordinary Japanese have quite different brain structure and function from ones of other ethnics thanks to long vowels. Scientifically saying, not the genes but the Japanese language decides the uniqueness of the Japanese society: peaceful, harmonized, comprehensive and ecological. These are very characters which the current world community lack of.

From now on, not to speak out but to actively listen to others’ words is of importance to reconstruct the human society. Not to push out but to draw into is the strategy needed. Just Pay much more attention to the power of auditory sense. Music with Japanese lyrics will clearly attract other nations and let them understand what “Pax Japonica” really means.

A friend online asked me to write much more than usual on this English weblog, while he/she agrees with what I’ve written here. Next time, I’ll try to write a little bit more, but this time, I have to finish now to take a train to USA, where I’ll pray for peaceful transition of the world history to rightness in the USA Jingu in Oita/Japan.

usa_shrine

 

“Die Verlorene Ehre von Japan” and Her Truth

This week, my younger friend temporarily located in D. C. and engaged in renewal of the Japan-US relationship, sent me a message to tell me what Mr. Shigeru Ishiba, Secretary-General of the Japanese LDP, said in his speech there:

“Secretary-General Ishiba referred to his request to the U.S. to withdraw its troops from Okinawa, as soon as Japan will admit her right of collective self-defense. The majority of the American audience was astonished to hear that and asked me to check what he exactly said.”

Since Obama had successfully completed his mission during hits visit to Tokyo to clearly show to the public that the USG doesn’t support the Abe administration any more, a power struggle in Japan just restarted. The point is whom the U.S. will take seriously. While Secretary-General Ishiba, known as great fan of plastic model, has sufficient knowledge and experience on this mechanism beyond the Pacific, he just tried to carry out a preemptive strike verbally. Now, the U. S. side must be considering how far he is serious to take over the power from Mr. Shinzo Abe, current Prime Minister in Japan.

Just before I’ve got the mail from D. C., I met a Japanese professional in the INTEL world.  Based on his deep and vast human network and experience as a “shadow man”, he told me how he sees Secretary-General Ishiba. With laughter, he said:

“As you must know, Mr. Harada, Ishiba is too honest to hide he’s nervous. That’s why he has always failed at the very last stage.”

Hmmm… His comment seems to reflect what the INTEL world now thinks of Secretary-General Ishiba, I believe. While hearing that, I spontaneously remembered Shintaro Ishihara, former Mayor of Tokyo, also gave a dramatic speech on how to say “NO” to the U.S. in the 1980s, when he actually sought permission from the American side to become the Japanese Prime Minister. It’s all the same rule the politicians obey here in Japan.

Say_No_Japan_2

However, this rule has been gradually changed without prior notification to the public. As far as I know, those who are aware of this on both sides beyond the Pacific, have begun to adapt themselves to the emerging, new rule since 2003 or 2004. To prepare for the next decades, I’ll let you know it as follows:

– Every Japanese on the street believes Japan has been occupied by the U. S., since she was defeated in the W. W. II. The historical truth is Japan forced his American counterpart to stay there even after the occupation period originally planned by the G. H. Q.

– The hard core of Japans true power has successfully made use of the presense of the U. S. troops after the war. Whenever something unpopular happened in Japan, the Japanese called the American to account.

– Not the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but the Ministry of Finance in Japan has been in charge of maintaining this mechanism beyond the Pacific. There are some tools for the MOF to do so. The one is financial support towards welfare benefits and allowances of U. S. forces stationed in Japan (Omoiyari-yosan).

The second is control of exchange rate between USD and JPY. Standing in very close relation with its counterpart, the US Treasury, the MOF has always tried to offset excess of profit and loss of the Japanese national economy. For example, the US economy could try to show its “recovery” even after the economic downturn precipitated by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, while the Japanese MOF admitted the sudden and massive appreciation of JPY afterwards.

-This mechanism can theoretically work as long as the MOF can somehow balance income and expenditure of the GOJ. However, the time has gone by and the ministry apparently decided to head for its “PLAN B” beyond the current mechanism.  That automatically means the end of this historical game with US. The hard core of the Japanese power will let its proxy, the MOF, move forward to de facto declaration of default, while it will simultaneously lead to the automatic default of the USG. The sea change will come between 2016 and 2017.

– In the next game afterwards, Japan will try to balance its economy not only with US but with the rest of the world as a whole. To make it possible, Japan needs to take over the current role of UK (Tokyo replaces the City of London).  That’s why the United Kingdom will collapse soon after the referendum on Scottish independence dated on September 18 in this year.

In his famous novel, Heinrich Boell, German eminent story writer, wrote Katharina Blum as tragic and innocent heroine. But how dou you feel, if this heroine was in fact the very person who secretly planned to change the world and debauched others to do so? To begin the historical change to Pax Japonica, the ends justify the means.

Say_No_Japan_1