Monthly Archives: October 2013

On the Adaptive Unconscious and Our “Unthinkable” Future

With listening to my favorite the Great Fugue (BWV 542) composed by J. S. Bach, I’m riding on the Express “Shiokaze” from Okayama to Matsuyama. Actually, I just want to pay a short visit to the Shikoku island, in which I was born 42 years ago, on my way back to Tokyo. Today, I gave a lecture on the current global macro to my retail clients in Fukuoka. Some of them asked me questions on potential natural disasters such as great earthquake and sun storm in the near future. Well, I personally believe almost everything will take place simultaneously with a sudden collapse of the financial market, probably in the mid-November. In principle, we can’t avoid that. Instead, we should prepare for the world beyond that. However, please don’t worry: I’m not pessimistic at all. This phenomenon will finally cause the dramatic change of our way of thinking and life. If it will be delayed as it was frequently since 2009, “the moment of the truth” will be postponed till the latter half of 2015 or 2016, I suppose.

Now, you may simply ask yourself why I can predict that without any hesitation. Do you really want to know the reason why?? Well, I will tell the truth: I feel, therefore I anticipate.

You must differentiate mere “superstition” from the so called “adaptive unconscious”, which is one of the ambitious frontiers of modern psychology. In previous posts, I introduced myself to you as CEO of a think tank dedicated to making strategic scenarios for risk management. Traditionally speaking, the “scenario making/planning” is a kind of collective thinking procedure with standardized measures as follows:

-List up factors, which will have influences on the future.

-Among them, differentiate between variable and invariable ones.

-Then, pick up “driving forces” from them and focus on them.

-Think time sequences among the driving forces. Don’t forget to think logically.

-Based on that, draw a road map and make it descriptive.

-Finally, give a name to it. (And love it.)

I strongly doubt world-class scenario thinkers such as members of the legendary scenario planning unit of the Royal Dutch Shell really repeats such a strict process. They might just feel “the breeze from the future” and write down what they feel. That’s it. To think collectively is sometimes harmful, because what trained scenario thinkers feel is quite logical and plausible by itself. Where “democracy” ends, the future begins to show its real face.

To check whether this hypothesis is correct or not, is one of the most important tasks my institute “IISIA” has been tackling. All the strategic scenarios the institute has made public so far is based on what I felt at each moment. If the scenarios won’t agree with the reality, I will stop anticipating the future with my “adaptive unconscious”.  If the opposite will be the case, I will strongly recommend you to forget any other future scenarios made by conventional “collective” way of thinking.

Anyway…

On November 23, my alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me the following statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225:

20131023    1    14192.65    under -520.6
20131024    1    14252.09    under -173.96
*20131025    1    14388.29    under -37.76
*20131028    -1    14592.09    under 166.04
20131029    -1    14631.14    over 205.09
20131030    -1    14656.6        over 230.55
20131031    -1    14785.88    over 359.83
20131101    -1    14751.85    over 325.8
20131105    -1    14895.81    over 469.76
20131106    -1    14911.63    over 485.58

His analysis was slightly changed since then, but still pointed out something significant could occur in mid-November, when the current downward trend would continue. Once something will happen, every single risk related to each other like “default of Argentine”, “collapse of the UK real estate market” and “outbreak of the Great Middle East war” will turn out to be the reality. Based on my daily analysis of OSINT, I free agree with the tentative conclusion of Mr. HKD and also stick to the conclusion, “Mid-November in 2013 will be unforgettable for all of us.”

Can you also feel it, my dearest friends behind the PC screen?

Some Thoughts on Sleeping Russian Beauty

Yesterday, our institute held a seminar for Japanese retail investors in Tokyo. We really appreciate about 200 people got together and carefully listened to the lecture I gave on the current and future global macro. Furthermore, we’re pleased to welcome many of them joined the institute’s membership.

As I told during the seminar, the moment of the truth will come between 7/8th and 23/24th October due to dramatic changes in the Middle East. The trigger will be the on-going appeasement policy of the US vis‐à‐vis the Iranian. The USA aims at letting the Israelis to be jealous of it. Maybe, the word “jealousy” could be wrong. The Israelis (and the Saudis!) fear they would loose preferential treatment they have enjoyed since 1970’s in the ME. Now that the Iranian will come in, they will be have to go out. That’s an huge, existential problem for the people of the lost homeland and its only solution would be to hinder the Iranian from coming back to the international arena. The show set for such a decisive scene will be the forthcoming big conference on the Syrian peace allegedly to be held no October 23/24 in Geneva. The Israelis must do something before that, so that such a historical come-back won’t be realized. A simple covert action can’t be sufficient to prevent such a movement pushed by the USG from going forward. Only series of “preemptive attack” the Israeli PM Netanyahu mentioned recently are needed. The Saudis will surely join these military actions from the fear of possible uprising by the Shi’ites inside obviously linked to the Iranian Government. “The Great Middle East War” will break out.

What will occur then in the world? How should we prepare for that?? Some thoughts I may now show you are as follows:

-Even though the Israelis will trigger off all the things, they will be saved thanks to the help of the Pope Francis. They will be evacuated to Argentina, a newly promised land for the people of the lost homeland. Mme. President Kirchner is forced to decide either to accept the disastrous default of her government’s bonds or to let the Israelis in. The Pope Francis stands between them as a mediator or “internuncio of the world’s peace”.

-Rather the Saudis will be the victims. As soon as the war will break out, every possible thing will simultaneously happen to polarize the kingdom. Nobody knows whether the map of “the New Middle East “ or its New Yorker version will be realized. Anyway, the most important thing is the Kingdom will be dead and totally destroyed. That will evoke lots of changes in the whole region of the ME.

-The sudden fall of the Saudi Kingdom will lead to shortage of its oil export. In addition, the Iranian will close the straight of the Hormuz as all of us expect. The time of the “Oil Shock 3.0” will cause the “double dip” of the world economy.

-Who will be then the winner of the game? My answer is Russia. While the Russians will mediate between all the parties involved instead of the USG, which won’t have enough money and power to do so any more, the Russian will take advantage of the dramatic fall of oil export from the ME and declare they will enhance their oil supply for the sake of the stability of the world economy. The money will rush into the Russian border, at least in a short term.

-How about JPY? Oh, yes, the Japanese will surely have difficulties to combat the sudden appreciation of JPY. Of course, the Japanese stock market will sharply fall and everyone will say, “This is the end of the ABENOMICS.” I suppose Mr. Junichiro Koizumi, former Prime Minister, will make use of such a decisive momentum to reshape the Japanese political landscape by saying, “Why don’t we demolish the old-fashioned Liberal Democrats?”

-But don’t worry, your money will be saved if you have assets by Japanese Yen. The drastic appreciation of JPY means every investor will hold huge amount of JPY assets and will be forced someday in the near future to invest them in Japan, in which JPY is used and circulated. That will then trigger of the historical, Japanese bubble towards 2014, even though the Japanese inhabitants aren’t obviously aware of that.

Again, we will face the moment of the truth in mid-November. Meanwhile, why don’t we listen to the playing Russian beauties?

Can We Predict the Future? “Yes, We Can!”

I’m just flying with ANA to Okayama. I’ll give a lecture to employees of one of the most important corporate clients there, which is now trying to drastically widen its business abroad.  Today’s trip is just a one-day trip. Hopefully, I won’t be exhausted on the way back to Tokyo with a JAL flight…

In the very first post of this newly opened weblog, I asked you, dear readers, whether we can anticipate what will occur in the future. Furthermore, I indicated something significant would happen on October 10, 2013, which would lead to an apparent “sea change” both in the market and in the politics.

Actually, I applied the following two steps to reach such a tentative statement:

-Thanks to one of my closest alliance partners, known as “HKD” on this blog, his comprehensive, statistical analysis of the Nikkei 225 index clearly shows the date of October 17, 2013 would be a critical.

-Based on this hypothesis, I begun to analyze what could be observed in open sources. This process called “Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)” told me this date is quite important because of the US federal debt ceiling. While the financial market fell due to fear of a possible default of the USG at that time, I concluded the market would go up on the next sea change of October 17, 2013 dramatically.

The reality is 1) the US congressmen finally succeeded to reach an agreement to avoid a default till February of the next year, and 2)the seven party-talks on Iranian nuclear issues was held for two days and alledgedly “successful”. Due to these positive factors, the market has obviously risen on October 17, 2013 (JST).

Now_You_See_Me

Now, you see me, a truimphing OSINT analyst! We can predict the future very precisely in accordance with this methodology, which you can find only in Japan so far.

Anyway…

Mr. “HKD” sent me the following statistical analysis of the Nikkei 225 index as the next step:

20131016    -1    14744.34    over 302.8
*20131017    1    14380.64    over -60.9
20131018    1    14367.38    under -74.16
20131021    1    14243.08    under -198.46
20131022    1    14102.18    under -339.36
20131023    1    14132.9   under -308.64
20131024    1    14236.73    under -204.81
20131025    1    14361.41   under -80.13
*20131028    -1    14548.23    under 106.69
20131029    -1    14584.93    over 143.39
20131030    -1    14582.74    over 141.2
20131031    -1    14580.63    over 139.09
20131101    -1    14578.96    over 137.42

It apparently shows something significant would reverse the current going up trend in the financial market. The question is, of course, what would happen then.

At least till the date, the (stock) market will sharply rise, which will surely attract the people to investment. However, please make sure the next sea change should be a negative one. What will be up then? I personally believe a decisive trend change would come in the course of the second week of November, rather than on such an earlier stage.

Stay tuned…

Lights and Shadows of the Abraham & Co.

itukawayukasee

Sometimes, every Japanese knows something, which foreigners don’t know at all. The issue “Abraham & Co.” I try to mention now comes under this category.

Actucally, the case is extremely simple: The Abraham & Co. conducted by a young Japanese entrepreneur with a background of one of famous Japanese trading companies was officially warned by the Japanese financial authority, because of its allegedly violation of a financial regulation. The Abraham & Co. explains it merely gives advices to its retail clients, when they choose financial products. The point is the Abraham & Co. allegedly gets in fact a huge amount of kick back from funds and entities, which buy their financial products to the retail clients of the Abraham & Co. According to the authority, this conduct obiviously voilates the regulation because of lack of neutrality.

“You will be able to make 100 million yen in the future, when you begin to save 50 thousand yen from now”, says its famous advertisement you can find everywhere in the Japanese media. But let’s calm down and calculate it again. How long will you need to save 100 million yen, when you save only 50 thousand yen per month? The Abraham & Co. explains it all depends on how seriously you learn strength and weakness of each financial product. Of course, that’s true. However, I still wonder why I should not save the money directly in my deposit of banks even with historical low rates, but pay 5 thousand yen per month to the Abraham & Co.  My primitive instinct tells it seems there is something implausible in the above mentioned message of the Abrahams…

Besides such an ambiguity of the whold story, one thing is clear: We should appreciate the Abraham & Co. successfully draws the pension issue in the Japanese society into attention. While other financial institutions like megabanks keep the problem secret without exceptions, the Abrahams haven’t hesitated to make it public and advise especially the Japanese younger generations to think of the seriousness of this issue for them. The problem is only the way they pretend to help them.  In lack of neutrality between advisory and collaboration with sellers, the Abrahams can’t be capable of helping the “pensionless” generaions.  In fact, they are cruel wolves, which bite innocent retail investors in the financial market.

This case “Abraham & Co.” triggers off the typical tendency in the Japanese society that the people always try to avoid direct interface with investment and market. Instead, they continue to save the money in their deposits by saying, “This is the only way for our future.”

But such a huge amount of saving in Japan is used only for the purchase of unlimited volume of Japanese Goverment Bonds. Under this condition, how will you feel, if the Goverment of Japan will declare default in the near future? Now, you must say, “Don’t be stupid! Japan won’t go bankrupt!” However, as soon as the momentum of the truth on the Japanese govermental debt issue will come, maybe in the latter half of 2015, everyone will finally realize it’s not stupid to prepare for such a default of the Japanese.

What the Japanese ordinary people with “pensionless” future should do right now is to enhance its “information literacy” to tackle the financial capitalism. Only with such a skill, they can make correct desicion when they choose finnancial products, make profits of them and finally enable to build a pension by themselves. From my viewpoint, the information literacy consists of the following two elements: “open source intelligence” and “scenario making”. Next time, I’ll deepen the discussion on it.

Just before the climax of “default theater” in the US tomorrow, I just want to say the real problem lays not in the States but in Japan, where much more national wealth has been accumulated than in other western countries. Inspite of that, the Abraham & Co. allegedly advises its retail clients to invest abroad very, very enthusiastically. The true answer shoud be “Invest at first in Japan before its possible default in 2015/2016, and then relocate all the assets abroad just before the Japanese financial turmoil.” The important question is then whether the Abrahams really don’t know their advices are totally wrong. Now that the Japanse public is fully aware of their tactical maneuvers so far, they can’t follow the same business mode any more.

Wait and see what clever Mr. Takaoka, CEO of the Abrahams, will show us next.  But remember the history won’t repeat three times…

A Current Strategy of the House of Rothschild and Japan

FT_October_12_2013

I’m writing this weblog in NH 1051 from Honolulu to Tokyo/Narita. Finally, the day to go home has come!  I will upload this post after I’ll have step into the Japanese border! A so long journey for 15 days away from home through lots of countries… (!!!)

I once wrote down the reason why I launched this new English weblog as a voice of Japan. So far, I’ve not seen any experts in Japan, who deliver their analysis and comments on global macro in English in the internet. Of course, you can find plenty of analysts and strategists even in and near the Japanese market. However, the point is the way of their thinking and analyzing is usually very, very narrow-scoped and doesn’t cover the whole world of global macro. With this weblog, I just want to try to show you analysis of global macro can be also done from the Japanese viewpoint, while the Japanese market and its indices like the Nikkei 225 are incorporated in the global macro. Based on analysis I can derive from such genuine Japanese stuffs from the market, you can anticipate what will occur in the near future in the global macro and world community. Therefore, my main battlefield are always the Japanese (stock) markets and its indices, even though the products of my analysis are directly connected to the whole world through the global macro.

Japanese experts on macro economy concentrate instead rather on local/national affairs and make their analysis public only in Japanese (“Analysis of the Japanese, by the Japanese and for the Japanese”). In addition, the way they’ve been discussing is quite controversial, because they tend to single out only Japan and treat the rest of the world as if they would have forgot it. In this context, the global macro or current interconnectedness of transnational in- and outflow of capital is never highlighted. Fora of opinions in Japan, in which they get together, are totally isolated from those of other (western) countries.

With this tiny weblog, I just want to get rid of such a fatal situation in Japan and set new standards of analysis of global macro to both of Japan and the whole world.

Anyway…

Before I’ll show you my latest thought and idea on the analysis of global macro based on signs of possible “sea changes” in the Japanese (stock) market, I now tell you Tokyo is one of the best places, in which you can easily get “AAA”-rated financial intelligence as follows:

Just take a look at the above shown photo of an English article. On the way from Los Angeles to Honolulu by UA, I found it by chance in the Financial Times dated October 10. It refers to the forthcoming “loan crisis” among SMEs in the peripheral countries in Europe.

When it comes to “Europe”, you can simply imagine its biggest issue must be the Euro crisis. Southern European countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal still suffer from their heavy debt issues, which you should have known for long time since 2010. The situation around SMEs is quite different. “Loan crisis among SMEs in the peripheral countries?”, you’re now wondering, I suppose.

To be honest, every connoisseur of the real global macro vividly knows not the various debt crisis in Southern European countries but this SMEs-related problem is the very key issue we should urgently tackle. The current strategy of the House of Rothschild, of which I was informed by the person directly involved in this matter in Tokyo, obviously shows that is true. The facts, 1) the House launched a rescue fund with the amount of 40 billion yen by itself behind the door (Nobody officially declares the existence of such a fund either in Europe/USA and in Japan.) and 2) the House financed the half of it (By the way, the rest was financed by 12 big Japanese families!), clearly tells us how decisively important the loan crisis among SMEs in Europe is. My source pointed out it’s a rare case that the House decided to settle up such a fund by itself. The situation is far more worse than you might expect.

The point is I’ve got this highly confidential information in the last spring. I’m sorry but to be honest, almost all of you didn’t know that so far, I guess. Now that the FT highlighted this issue in October, you finally know its (maybe historical) importance. This is one of the best examples for what I actually wanted to say: “Tokyo is a top city of financial intelligence, where you can enjoy such a top secret in the market.”  In this mean, Tokyo is really a great city besides the City of London and New York, I must say. The only problem is the majority of the Japanese isn’t aware of that yet and hasn’t fully made use of this profile of Tokyo.

Keep in mind the significance of Tokyo in the context of global macro. And keep eyes on what’s going on among SMEs in Europe!

Nikkei225_20131011

Last but not least, a little bit foot notes on what statistics now show. One of my closest alliance partners, Mr. HKD, sent me as usual on the last Friday the following data on the Nikkei 225:

20131011    -1    15284.32    over 1089.61
20131015    -1    14712.57    over 307.83
20131016    -1    14746.35    over 341.61
*20131017    1    14380.66   over  -24.08
20131018    1    14367.35   under  -37.39
20131021    1    14242.49    under -162.25
20131022    1    14101.24    under -303.5
20131023    1    14132.11    udner -272.63
20131024    1    14236.02    under -168.72
20131025    1    14360.63    under -44.11
*20131028    -1    14546.83    under 142.09
20131029    -1    14544.49    under 139.75
20131030    -1    14542.26    under 137.52

At least statistics in accordance with the HKD’s algorism shows a dramatic up and down would soon come in the Japanese stock market and the whole world. As I explained in the previous post, “October 17, 2013” must be one of “the moments of the truth”. At that time, everybody in the world would recognize the Japanese stock market would have been drastically went up at first.

Then, the question is “How long will it be maintained?”   Implying the duration would be prolonged till the second week of November, 2013, my alliance partner HKD warns something dramatic and decisive indeed could reveal on October 28, even though the current rebound would continue till the first half of November. A very huge volatility. Be extremely careful.

As expert of OSINT, I’ve been contemplating what would happen in the near future, after I had got this information. This week (the third week of November) must be full of rather positive signs in the world, such as the resumption of 7 party-talks on Iran, or a short-term solution of the US debt crisis. These positive cards would be reversed on around October 28 as follows:

– In spite of a successful conclusion of the 7 party-talks, the situation in the ME would be worsened, and the two great enemies vis-a-vis Iran, the Israelis and Saudis, would finally make up their mind to attack the Iranians by military means.

– This would cause a sudden backfire of the US debt crisis, because of widely spread fear that possible intervention of the US military in the ME would lead to drastic accumulation of the federal debt again to enhance its military mobility.

Besides these two issues, don’t forget also the Argentina’s debt crisis. Or even a complext of all the risks would explode simultaneously, I must say. Before that, the Nikkei 225 could rise approximately to 16500. After the climax, everything in the market would be shuffled with a huge volatility, which, of course, could negatively affect all the political, economic, geopolitical and social affairs in the world.

To wrap up what I mentioned, I would say, “Both the SMEs in Europe and the critical dates in the very near future “October 17/28, 2013″ would be unforgettable.”

Stay tuned…

It’s time for teaming up, Ms. Yellen!

After having enjoyed yesterday’s fantastic concert by the NYP in the Arvin Fisher Hall, I’m now staying in the Washington Hilton. Usually, I choose “Westins”, wherever I stay on the globe. However, “Westins” are said to be fully occupied in Washington for unknown reasons. Although Hilton is quite unfamiliar to me, I made up my mind to choose a “Hilton” to stay. Let’s see whether that’s a good choice or not.

Before referring further to my analysis on global macro, I must say “Thank you very much!” to all my friends outside of Japan, to whom I introduced this new blog in English either per facebook oer via eMail. The statistic gathered by the wordpress shows they are so friendly to me that they really took a look at the blog. Thank you again and please enjoy further the posts.

Anyway…

Nikkei225_20131010

As I predicted in the last post, the Nikkei obviously started to jump up. But don’t get crazy now, since this is simply the beginning of the whole story. My closest allaince partner I mentioned at the last time (Let’s call him “HKD” from now on) has just shown his statistical analysis to me, which implies the “true drama” will begin at October 22. Maybe, a sort of “sea change” will be seen from October 17, he added.

From my view of OSINT analyst, you should now keep eyes on the following events and factors:

-Even though the US President Obama had refused to negotiate with the GOP in any ways, he changed his mind and met the leading congressmen of the Republican one by one since yesterday, without making clear “why now”.

-Ms. Yellen was finally chosen as the next FRB boss. People just expect the current QE wouldn’t be changed drastically, since Ms. Yellen is politically responsible for the QE policies with Mr. Bernanke.

– Based on a naive berief that these political decisions in the US would “make the world better”, the stock markets such as one in Japan (see the above mentioned Nikkei 225) has dramatically risen worldwide since then.

-Besides that, it’s also important to notice the new round of the Six party talks vis-a-vis Iran will hopefuly begin next week in Geneva/Switzerland. That is quite good for reducing the ME geopolitical risks, but not good for the Israelis, which fear to be abondaned by the Obama administration.

-The critical “moment of the truth” should come in the second week of the forthcoming November because of a US-Russo joint project: The Peace Conference for Syria. However, let’s imagine what would happen if it would fail. Stay tuned.

-And don’t forget President Kirchner of Argentina. Her government just decided to continue its fatal fight against US vulture funds, which have claimed full payments of Argentina’s bond in the time of its default in 2002. The US supreme court had indirectly decided not intervene to this matter. Of course, Ms. Kircher can continue the fight as long as she wants.  The point is rather whether foreign investors can tolerate such a meaningless political soap drama. In this regard, “the moment of the truth” will come as soon as they want.

-Last but not least, a fresh news ”from the NASA”. In the internet sphere, a rumor has traveled quickly, which points out “NASA will announce a big news on November 13 that will cause a significant impact on the whole world.” What is it??

I don’t want to rely on conspiracy theories, please don’t worry. But if I were President of the US, I would also postpone evey important decision to be made till the whole situation will be made clear, as Obama now seems to do. Again, the schedule of “the moment of the truth” was just rescheduled for later, maybe the second week of November, I suppose.

When the stock market rebounds dramatically without any obvious reasons, we must prepare for its dramatic fall which will just follow the rebound. This is related to the so-called “Le Chatelier’s principle“, which can in fact be applied to everything on the globe. I will try to explain later on what it is.

Don’t forget “Tsunami always comes after euphoria”. And now that the euphoria has just begun in a short term, you should know what to do right now.

US visa required? NO!!!

cropped-2013101.jpg

I’m writing this blog in the Star Alliance lounge at the Ezeiza International Airport, Buenos Aires. In about an hour, I’ll take a seat in the flight called “JJ 8019” bound for Rio de Janeiro. Then I’ll fly over to NY.  Everything should have moved forward without any troubles. Yeah, it should have.

But something extraordinary has just happened: As I approached to the cheking-in counter of my favorite Brazilian Airline TAM, an officer at the counter rejected to give me a flight ticket by saying, “Senor, you need a visa. ”

Oooops!! What?? Visa?? For what?? I clearly declared, “As a Japanese citizen, I don’t need any visa to enter the US border!!” The officer and his female collegues sitting beside him didn’t believe this declaration of a former Japanese career diplomat. I slowly began to imagine my possible daily life as dessident without any visa back to Japan via the States…

Finally, it was made clear that the officer simply regarded “ESTA” as a kind of visa. That’s all. That was really an unforgettable last moment during my first visit in Argentina during the current round trip from Kiel, London, Rio, Argentina, NY, Washington D. C., Honolulu and then back to Tokyo/Narita.

Anyway…

The reason why I try to write posts on this blog even in English is exactly related to the round trip. During the trip for almost two weeks, I met lots of friends at every place I stayed. The problem was I had difficulties to exlplain what I really do professionally. Author? CEO/Representative of a think tank? That’s true, but the point is it’s not explained yet what I’ve been investigating since I voluntarily dropped out from the Foreign Ministry in 2005.

My think tank called “IISIA” analyses the so-called “global-macro”, that is to say, in- and outflow of capitals all over the world, while we’re keeping eyes on geopolitical risks. With that, the IISIA makes risk scenarios and gives them to its retail and corporate clients. Our scenario is quite different from similar ones by other institutes, because it’s always written from the view point of the Japanese.

Why Japanese? A good question. Every professional financier all over the world know (or rather “should know”) a massive capital flight towards the Japanese market has begun and continued since the beginning of the ABENOMICS. While other western countries started to rethink the shut down of their QE (=quantitative easing) either obviously or secretly, the GOJ and BOJ rush in the opposite direction. Under such a condition, why don’t you try to invest in the Japanese market, which you must have totally forgotten for almost 20 years?

In this blog, I’ll show some parts of global-macro analysis by the IISIA. The methodology is simple as follows:

-One of our closest alliance partners provides the IISIA with its stasitical analysis, produced by totally new algorism it invented and developed. The analysis shows exactly when “sea changes” would happen in the market.

-The IISIA tries to find with methods of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) what would happen then concretely. For example, the beginning of a “war”  could cause dramatic fall of equity markets. Or a political decision for QE could lead to recovery of them. The IISIA always interprets the meaning of the above mentioned sea changes, or statistical movement in apparent manner.

-That doesn’t always mean “Statistical analysis goes forward, and OSINT follows.” in many cases, a talented professional OSINT researcher can even anticipate what will happen, even before statistcal analysis can imply that.

-Our main focus is the correlation between the Japanese market (and its index such as “Nikkei 225“) and external risks like geopolitical one. The analysis continues everyday except for when the markets are closed.

Let’s take an example. Our alliance partner sent me on October 9, 2013 the following statistical analysis on the future trends of the Nikkei 225:

20131007    -1    15148.4       over 1124.09
20131008    -1    15336.62     over 1483.3
20131009    -1    15096.02    over 1242.7
20131010    -1    15710.89    over 1857.57
20131011    -1    15600.9       over 1747.58
20131015    -1    14936.38    over 1083.06
20131016    -1    14970.76    over 1117.44
*20131017    -1    14428.14    over 574.82
20131018    -1    14399.09    over 545.77
20131021    -1    14210.43    over 357.11
*20131022    -1    14005.85    over 152.53
20131023    -1    14002.32    over 149
20131024    -1    13998.81    over 145.49
20131025    -1    13995.82    over 142.5
20131028    -1    13992.07    over 138.75
20131029    -1    13987.39    over 134.07
20131030    -1    13983        over 129.68

At this stage, I don’t go into the detail of the statistics. The important thing is that apparently shows us “something significant” would happen on October 17 and 22 and could cause dramatic recovery of the Japanese equity market.

But wait!! The US administration will fall into a default, if things won’t be changed, they say. Why a recovery of the Nikkei 225 in spite of that???

That’s the very point, with which we can start our discussions on “think the unthinkable future.” The future can be forseen, when we guide ourselves in accordance with appropriate methods.

“The Nikkei 225” will recover soon. That’s you shouldn’t forget at this stage. Stay tuned… And I’ll then fly over with my TAM to NY.