With listening to my favorite the Great Fugue (BWV 542) composed by J. S. Bach, I’m riding on the Express “Shiokaze” from Okayama to Matsuyama. Actually, I just want to pay a short visit to the Shikoku island, in which I was born 42 years ago, on my way back to Tokyo. Today, I gave a lecture on the current global macro to my retail clients in Fukuoka. Some of them asked me questions on potential natural disasters such as great earthquake and sun storm in the near future. Well, I personally believe almost everything will take place simultaneously with a sudden collapse of the financial market, probably in the mid-November. In principle, we can’t avoid that. Instead, we should prepare for the world beyond that. However, please don’t worry: I’m not pessimistic at all. This phenomenon will finally cause the dramatic change of our way of thinking and life. If it will be delayed as it was frequently since 2009, “the moment of the truth” will be postponed till the latter half of 2015 or 2016, I suppose.
Now, you may simply ask yourself why I can predict that without any hesitation. Do you really want to know the reason why?? Well, I will tell the truth: I feel, therefore I anticipate.
You must differentiate mere “superstition” from the so called “adaptive unconscious”, which is one of the ambitious frontiers of modern psychology. In previous posts, I introduced myself to you as CEO of a think tank dedicated to making strategic scenarios for risk management. Traditionally speaking, the “scenario making/planning” is a kind of collective thinking procedure with standardized measures as follows:
-List up factors, which will have influences on the future.
-Among them, differentiate between variable and invariable ones.
-Then, pick up “driving forces” from them and focus on them.
-Think time sequences among the driving forces. Don’t forget to think logically.
-Based on that, draw a road map and make it descriptive.
-Finally, give a name to it. (And love it.)
I strongly doubt world-class scenario thinkers such as members of the legendary scenario planning unit of the Royal Dutch Shell really repeats such a strict process. They might just feel “the breeze from the future” and write down what they feel. That’s it. To think collectively is sometimes harmful, because what trained scenario thinkers feel is quite logical and plausible by itself. Where “democracy” ends, the future begins to show its real face.
To check whether this hypothesis is correct or not, is one of the most important tasks my institute “IISIA” has been tackling. All the strategic scenarios the institute has made public so far is based on what I felt at each moment. If the scenarios won’t agree with the reality, I will stop anticipating the future with my “adaptive unconscious”. If the opposite will be the case, I will strongly recommend you to forget any other future scenarios made by conventional “collective” way of thinking.
On November 23, my alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me the following statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225:
20131023 1 14192.65 under -520.6
20131024 1 14252.09 under -173.96
*20131025 1 14388.29 under -37.76
*20131028 -1 14592.09 under 166.04
20131029 -1 14631.14 over 205.09
20131030 -1 14656.6 over 230.55
20131031 -1 14785.88 over 359.83
20131101 -1 14751.85 over 325.8
20131105 -1 14895.81 over 469.76
20131106 -1 14911.63 over 485.58
His analysis was slightly changed since then, but still pointed out something significant could occur in mid-November, when the current downward trend would continue. Once something will happen, every single risk related to each other like “default of Argentine”, “collapse of the UK real estate market” and “outbreak of the Great Middle East war” will turn out to be the reality. Based on my daily analysis of OSINT, I free agree with the tentative conclusion of Mr. HKD and also stick to the conclusion, “Mid-November in 2013 will be unforgettable for all of us.”
Can you also feel it, my dearest friends behind the PC screen?