Monthly Archives: February 2014

Unsolved Enigma of Number Eleven

When I wake up at around 4:30 am every morning, I always open the window of my library and try to directly feel how the earth and air have changed during the night before. At this “golden time” just before sun rise, every plant halts photosynthesis and finishes to set atmospheric composition, which is decisive for how human beings feel and what they do. As far as I know, this is the traditional method from ancient times in Japan to adapt ourselves to the nature. Because of this habit, I can somehow anticipate from the very beginning of every day whether and how trend of human society will change during daytime after the morning.

This is one of wisdoms the Japanese inherited from their ancestors, although the number of those who practice it has drastically declined, I think. Based on the principle of “yin-yang”, every “way” of the Japanese traditional culture consists of this factor. Let’s take an example of “tea ceremony” : We firmly believe it is traditionally fixed rules of making and drinking tea and have forgot their original meaning. According to the rigorous discipline, practitioners of “tea ceremony” must use water they draw from a well at “the time of tiger”, that is to say, at around 4 o’clock. The point is whether this kind of water really tastes good or not. In order to move forward on the way of tea ceremony, we must continue to wake up at around 4 o’clock and feel directly how the composition of atmosphere has changed. That’s it. As far as I know, any other civilizations haven’t developed such a custom and wisdom to co-exist with the nature.

Getting back to what I originally meant, I would say I’ve slowly begun to feel the irreversible change of the atmospheric composition this week. The air started to smell fragrantly and differently from the last week. This obviously implies a sea change will come in the near future.

Yesterday, I’ve got a message, as usual, from my closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, which shows the latest result of his statistical analysis of the Nikkei 225 index as below:

20140228    1    14610.41    under -312.7
20140303    1    14657.84    under -183.23
20140304    -1    14980.85    under 139.78
20140305    -1    14907.26    over 66.19
*20140306    1    14621.04    over -220.03
20140307    -1    14943.66    under 102.59
20140310    -1    14916.18    over 75.11
*20140311    -1    15118.96    over 277.89
20140312    -1    15042.79    over 201.72
20140313    -1    14994.93    over 153.86
20140314    -1    14910.39    over 69.32

During this week’s collaborative analysis with him, we’ve been concentrating on “March 11”. In both the Japanese and US financial markets, influential investors secretly bid on what will happen on this day, “March 11”.

Hearing the day “March 11”, all the Japanese spontaneously remember the disaster caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake at 14:46 on March 11 in 2011. You can easily find this timing is impressed with double “11”. I never forget what one of my female friends, a mezzo-soprano with shaman character, told me just after that: “The number “11” is a enigma in the world history. We must be very careful every time when the day “11” comes, because the number open the world’s door to the future.”

Hmmm…

This time, my adaptive unconscious leads me rather to see something positive, which would emerge from “March 11.” Of course, there are still lots of risks, such as the de facto civil war in Ukraine, which could explode at any time.  Being fully aware of futile efforts of the western civilization to artificially dramatize risks and volatilities for combatting the accelerating deflation of the world economy due to the dramatic change of solar activity and climate change (global cooling!),  I now feel a completely different wind of civilization will begin to blow from the Far East, which will give good tidings to all the people in the world. Of course, the financial market will totally affected by it.

Don’t forget the Le Chatelier’s principle I mentioned several times on this weblog. A positive sea change always start after another negative one peaked. In this regard, we’re now facing a still unsolved question on how we should interpret the current situaion especially in Japan: Is this the very bottom and end of the 20 years deflationary spiral caused by the collapse of the Heisei-Bubble?  Should we say this is rather the peak of the ABENOMICS, which is the beginning of the whole story’s end?  While every investor in the market knows the world’s economy relies on the inflationary policy of the GOJ and BOJ, the answer of this unsolved question gives dramatic impacts on our common future. Even though I myself am quite optimistic, I would say nobody can anticipate the message of the Last Judgment on “March 11”.  Keep calm and take care of your mental and physical health to be sensitive to every single message the nature will send to you. That’s all we need to survive in the age of human kind’s destiny.

Fatal Battle between True and Bogus Japanese

The card around Ms. Haruko Obokata has been suddenly reversed. After the eminent “Nature” had published an article on her discovery of STAP stem, some researchers all over the world pointed out “odd things” about it. Even though nobody knows yet whether this discovery is a fabrication or not, the Japanese media already begun to attack her relentlessly.

I’m not personally capable of judging its scientific correctness. However, I’d say there must be an eternal fight between iPS cell and STAP stem behind the whole story. It has been quite ridiculous that the Japanese media tended to highlight not her discovery but personal profile as a Japanese “young” “beautiful” researcher without husband yet. Ms. Obokata’s laboratory released even an unprecedented statement to call on the Japanese media not to besiege her by trampling on her privacy. Now that the editors of the “Nature” officially promised to review the above mentioned criticism, the Japanese “yellow” media already started as usual to bash her without conclusive evidence.  I’m awfully afraid of that Ms. Obokata’s future and her discovery will be crossed out in the Japanese public, as if nothing had happened .

Again, I wouldn’t say at this juncture there isn’t any fabrication in the article. The point is rather the typical attitude the Japanese media showed again: Culture of jealousy, which is deeply rooted in the Japanese society. During a speech I delivered yesterday at the Keizai-Club founded by Mr. Tanzan Ishibashi, former Japanese legendary prime minister, I referred to this issue as follows:

“The culture of jealousy is the very reason which has been hindering the advance of numerous innovations in Japan. While the age of possible default of the GOJ  is now approaching, we, all the Japanese, are gradually forced to change this cultural tendency. In this regard, apparent distinction between two types of the Japanese will dramatically emerge. The one is those who will be able to accept and endorse every significant innovation to rescue the Japanese society without any hesitation. Another is those who will never reflect on this harmful culture of jealousy. Instead, they will continue to block everything brandnew to them. I’d call the former “True Japanese” and the latter “Bogus Japanese”. Obviously, these two types of the Japanese are living in this country, although they can’t be distinguished from each other superficially.”

Now, I’d like to ask you, my dearest readers in Japan: “Are you “True Japanese” or “Bogus Japanese”??” I’d simply tell you only little time is left for us, the Japanese, till we can get rid of the default in the near future. For that, every single Japanese must try hard to show his/her openness to accept any innovations for a breakthrough. What we, the Japanese need urgently, is not solo but unison.

Anyway…

My closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me yesterday the latest result of his statistical anlaysis on the Nikkei 225 index as below:

20140221    1    14519.47    over 70.29
20140224    1    14737.26    under -128.41
20140225    -1    14916.6        under 50.93
20140226    -1    14981.67    over 116
*20140227    1    14760.41    over -105.26
20140228    1    14602.86    under  -262.81
20140303    1    14658.99    under -206.68
*20140304    -1    14968.18    under 102.51
20140305    -1    14898.02    over 32.35
*20140306    1    14624.05    over -241.62
20140307    -1    14933.63    under 67.96
20140310    -1    14933.14    over 67.47
20140311    -1    14932.75    over 67.08

As you might know, the Japanese financial market mainly relies on external risks such as geopolitical ones. As to geopolitics, almost all the risks excluding the de facto civil war in Ukraine have suddenly vanished in this week. Ukraine is too far away from Japan to affect the Japanese stock market directly as the Syrian civil war hasn’t. Looking at risks in the ME, the Saudis apparently began to avoid a head-on collision with the US, as Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the leading personality of Saudi hardliners, was secretly replaced from his capacity as intelligence chief. At least until the end of forthcoming March, in which the next US-Saudi summit will be held, nothing crucial will be broke out. In this mean, my adaptive unconscious tells you the Japanese stock market will continue its recovery for a while and could be reached to an abrupt skyrocket in April. Let’s see.

Are you still against the global cooling?

It was heavily snowy in Japan yesterday. No, actually, not only in Japan but also in eastern North America. You may now see we’re now entering a new era of the history of human kind: “The age of global cooling”.

In my latest book (Sorry! only in Japanese so far) entitled “Rush for Japan”, I anticipated expressis verbis what would happen on the globe as below:

1. Because of dramatic change of solar activity, climate on the earth will also be changed. In advanced countries in the northern hemisphere such as the US and EU countries, it will be even cooled.

2. The “global cooling” in this mean will then lead us to accelerated deflation. Except for Japan where intentional deflation called “collapse of the Heisei Bubble” was introduced 20 years ago, advanced economies can’t stop being trapped in further deflation despite of their efforts to enhance volatilities in the market.

3. Thanks to her unprecedented quantitative easing, Japan will emerge as the last resort, while advanced economies will collapse one after another. Everyone will rely on the sudden artificial bubble in Japan, at least for 2 years.

4. Behind the strategy of historical QE, the traditional mainstay of Japan will pursue gradually to realize its hidden agenda, the Japanese style of default. Without official declaration of default, the GOJ will accomplish de facto trading off its national debt with huge amount of its people’s deposit in private banks.

5. Afterwards, “Pax Japonica” will begin due to Japanese economy’s consolidation, while other advanced countries will deeply be troubled in stagnation.

Now, just ask yourself whether you’re still against the global cooling. Of course, I don’t say the leadership in western countries hasn’t known the above mentioned road map. Now you may see the true reason for several events in the world history, which have puzzled us so far: “Nixon shock”, “Oil shock”, “Normalization of the US with the PRC”, “Perestroika and sudden collapse of wall in Berlin”, and “Extreme bubble till current financial meltdown”. All these events were actually related to each other as reckless struggle of western countries excluding Japan to combat fatal collapse of their civilization. Instead, we’re now slowly facing the restoration of Gnosticism from Japan, which the western civilization officially banned in the First Council of Nicaea in 325 A.D.

By saying that, I don’t mean every Japanese knows this hidden story and will be guaranteed to survive in the forthcoming turmoil. Only part of it become aware of that and will be well prepared. At the last stage, you will find the “real” and “false” Japanese in five years from now.

“It seems institutional investors has just begun to withdraw from the financial market in fear of negative effects caused by heavy snow”, wrote Mr. “HKD”, my closest alliance partner, while sending me the latest result of his statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225 index as follows:

20140214    -1    15036.97    over 502.23
20140217    -1    15023.04    over 710.01
20140218    -1    14750.91    over 437.88
*20140219    -1    14327.85    over 14.82
20140220    -1    14419.59    over 106.56
20140221    -1    14400.37    over 87.34
20140224    -1    14583.14    over 270.11
20140225    -1    14793        over 479.97
20140226    -1    14859.04    over 546.01
20140227    -1    14577.8        over 264.77
20140228    -1    14379.59    over 66.56
20140303    -1    14377.57    over 64.54
20140304    -1    14375.99    over 62.96

Something significant would happen on February 19. Nobody knows either “upward” or “downward”.  A birfurcated tactic is tentatively recommended.

Anyway, “Pax Japonica” won’t be announced loudly by western type of public diplomacy. It has been penetrating the rest of the world step by step by stimulating your right brain like the short video shown below. Have a good day and enjoy the weekend.

Sorry, Scarlett! This is the beginning of the end.

While one of my most favorite female celebrity, Ms. Scarlet Johansson, is harshly criticized due to her appearance in a commercial short movie of SodaStream, which is allegedly connected to Israeli settlement in the West Bank, the geopolitical circumstances in the Middle East seem to have rather calmed down. In this regard, you can easily find some examples: After the Israeli President Peres had showed his readiness to hold a dialogue with the Iranian, his counterpart in Iran, Rouhani, donated 400,000 US dollar to a Jewish hospital in the country. On February 10, the second round of the Geneva II will begin in spite of the fact that the first one led us to a common stale mate called “agree to disagree”.

In accordance with such an apparent change of geopolitics, the Japanese stock market started to rebound as below:

Nikkei225_20140207

My closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me the latest result of his statistical analysis of the Nikkei 225 index, and pointed out the NY Dow index could even rise after February 19:

20140207    -1    16071.21    over 1916.09
20140210    -1    15137.19    over 674.78
20140212    -1    15087.43    over 625.02
20140213    -1    15391.5       over 929.09
20140214    -1    14983.38    over 520.97
20140217    -1    14890.29    over 427.88
20140218    -1    14661.27    over 198.86
*20140219    1    14295.66    over -166.75
20140220    1    14381.08    over -81.33
20140221    1    14369.45    over -92.96

Hmmm…  My adaptive unconscious still continues to give warnings for volatilities in the financial market. Yes, the market will be further reversed positively, but only for a while. Around February 19, that could be stopped suddenly due to the following two risk factors:

The one is that the Korean War II would break out. Even though the DPRK pretends to show its peace offensive, this year’s Ulchi Freedom Guardian will begin from February 17 as planned, which the North can’t tolerate. Especially this time, the North would react on it drastically with a declaration that the ROK didn’t accept the former’s official request to resolve the issue peacefully. An open source says the US held secret talks with the DPRK on this issues in Tehran (!!!), but that is, of course, not officially confirmed.

The point is the US needs momentum to draw positive attention of the world to US dollar and federal bond as safe havens in crisis. The famous ” federal debt limit” will seem to be reached till the end of this month. In order to avoid a fatal default, the US must let the rest of the world buy its bond. The latest financial turmois in emerging markets such as the PRC was obviously connected to this momentum. In this regard, I fully agree with the argument of the Russian propaganda. For the US leadership, a military crisis which is effective enough for a financial turbulance is urgently needed. One of them is surely a sudden military crash between the North and South in the Korean Peninsula.

The second one is possible disappointment at the forthcoming round of the financial policy meeting of the BOJ on February 17 and 18. After the FRB started the so-called “tapering” of the QE, the world financial market relies mainly on the ABENOMICS or the Japanese style of quantitative easing. The ECB can never move forward because of the liquidity trap. Under such a circumstance, everybody expect an additional bazooka of the BOJ but in vain, while the Japanese stock market has just begun to rebound as I showed. This tentative policy of motionlessness could cause abrupt disappointment of the world’s public opinion, which would lead us to an even much more sharp collapse and crisis of the market than before.  In this case, the BOJ would be regarded as an offering for the financial survival of the US.

People Scarlett Johansson

Anyway, don’t expect too much until the real crisis called “sudden default of the USG” will reveal. Sorry, Scarlett, the current situation in the market seems to be the very beginning of the end of the prolonged “Pax Americana”, which raises you to celebrity.

 

Yamato Nadeshiko and “Innovate Japan!”

Last week, every Japanese was astonished to hear a publicly unknown female researcher of 30 years old, Ms. Haruko Obokata, succeeded to discover STAP (= stimulus-triggered acquisition of pluripotency). Besides cooperation with her Japanese colleagues, she collaborated with a laboratory of the Harvard University. Furthermore, her discovery is internationally recognized after the British eminent scientific journal “Nature” published an article on it.

Now that the so-called “ABENOMICS”, the current inflationary economic policy of the GOJ with de-facto depreciation of the JPY, obviously has begun to stagnate, Japan urgently needs innovations which will lead her to economic and social breakthrough. Even though that is widely known in the Japanese society, it’s quite ridiculous to find the Japanese (mainly men-dominated) leadership in every sector hesitates to begin to move forward.

A Japanese proverb says, “Deru kui wa utareru (=The stake that sticks out gets hammered in.)”. If you successfully initiate something remarkable for a social breakthrough in Japan, the Japanese public always put inappropriate pressure on you as far as its men-dominated traditional structure is concerned. The history clearly shows every time when Japan got into an age of historical turbulances, men hesitated to show their leadership for innovations.

However, don’t forget the traditional reversibility of the Japanese society. Its history also shows a kind of women-dominated leadership such as Queen Himiko in the ancient suddenly emerged in an emergency and always gave a breakthrough based on brandnew ideas and thoughts.

I personally think this is also applicable for Ms. Obokata’s case. While the still men-dominated scientific leadership in Japan isn’t capable of going beyond its culture of mutual jealousy, she succeeded to find there is a loop hole and encouraged those who have ambitions for a total shift of both Japan and the world. In this regard, the Japanese society actually relies on “Yamato nadeshiko”, or female leadership with unique aesthetics and tactics, which is not always known in the foreigners.

Anyway… Japan is still in lack of innovations to override the current hardship. Last week, an eminent Japanese investor approached me to ask whether I want to form a platform for the Japanese young leadership. “The international community needs intellectual stimuli from Japan, while the western countries apparently have begun to lose their dominant positions. For that, a completely new platform is urgently needed in Japan, in which leadership of younger generations freely discusses and starts to speak out intellectual, political and economic stimuli to the whole world”, he says. Spontaneously, three key words occurred to me during the conversation: “innovation”, “the Japanese way of societal life”, and “Japanesque”. I understand all these three elements are combined with each other and essential to accomplish “Pax Japonica”, which makes the international community much more peaceful than before without the war economy and compatible for the age of the accelerating deflation due to the global cooling. On February 6, I’ll meet him for a luncheon again and have to explain what I want to do. Till then, I struggle to deepen my thoughts on such a private forum of Japanese young leadership for “Pax Japonica”.

Last but not least, some comments on the near future of the Japanese financial market: My closest alliance partner, Mr. “HKD”, sent me the lastest result of his statistical analysis on the Nikkei 225 index to me as follows:

20140131    -1    16303.82    over 1296.76
20140203    -1    16232.53    over 1318
20140204    -1    16432.84    over 1518.31
20140205    -1    16426.52    over 1511.99
20140206    -1    16176.43    over 1261.9
20140207    -1    15696.27    over 781.74
*20140210    -1    15228.55    over 314.02
20140212    -1    15193.49    over 278.96
20140213    -1    15523.12    over 608.59
20140214    -1    15110.51    over 195.98
*20140217    -1    15026.12    over 111.59
20140218    -1    15022.99    over 108.46
20140219    -1    15019.9        over 105.37
20140220    -1    15018.1        over 103.57
20140221    -1    15015.43    over 100.9
20140224    -1    15013        over 98.47

Hmmm…. The current “up-and-down” movement of the Japanese stock market seems to continue until February 10.  After that, our future will be two-forked: a drastic collapse or dramatic recovery. It all depends on whether the BOJ will suddenly step forward in the next session of its monetary policy meeting on February 17 and 18 preventively against possible turmoils due to the US federal debt limit and default of Argentina.

Well, don’t expect too much in the Japanese market for a while. Instead, just relax and enjoy the Japanesque such as the brandnew music shown below to imagine your brilliant, innovative future.