Monthly Archives: December 2014

In February, 2015…The Final Decision Will Be Made

fukushima_nuclearpowerplant1

 

In Japan, yesterday (December 26) was de facto the final working day in most manufacturers. Although I, CEO and Representative of an independent think tank dedicated to analyze the global-macro with geopolitical risks, will still have to work on the next Monday, I’ve been just thinking of what I have done and should have done in the year 2014 which is now passing by.

 

Among many events and issues, the most significant one is, without doubt, the story on combatting tritiated water in the Fukushima Dai’ichi Nuclear Plant. Picking up a genuine Japanese high technology to be applied to completely solve this problem, I underlined the necessity of technological breakthrough in the Japanese society. Nevertheless, I simply faced disgusting slanders of those who actually don’t have any knowledge on the cutting-edge technology and frontier of Physics and Chemistry. While bearing critics without any evidences at first hand, my institute and I have been working on fostering the technological development by connecting the people in charge with others related to final solution.

 

The vivid sea change has emerged, as the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy suddenly announced its fifth public appeal to gather relevant technologies to solve the on-going emittance of tritiated water from the nuclear plant in Fukushima. The above mentioned high technology was applied and said to be primarily accepted. I’ve just informed that the authority will hold a closed-door hearing on February 6, 2015, to decide whether it will pick it up officially or not. That is to say, the “moment of the truth” in this regard will come in the middle of February in 2015.

 

Because of both unprecedented innovativeness and political, economic and social impacts of this high technology, it’s not bureaucrats or single minister but PM Shinzo ABE that has to make the final decision. Everybody knows his famous “ABENOMICS” obviously lacks the third “arrow”, that is to say, fostering technological breakthrough to boost the national economic growth in Japan. Beyond detoxifying of tritiated water in Fukushima, the brandnew technology can be used for lots of purposes, such as production of hydrogen without emittance of greenhouse effect cases. That will, of course, create jobs massively in Japan.

 

Nowadays, many CEOs of global companies love to refer to “CSV (=Created Social Value)” as the most essential principle of corporate management. By supporting the high technology, our institutes never aims at getting profits directly. By fostering the right things, we’ve got much more social prestige. That’s it. As one corporate activity of this kind, I thoroughly briefed on this technology face to face to those person who is indispensable for PM ABE’s daily life. As far as I’ve been informed, PM ABE now knows the existence of it, however, declines to intervene in the process directly.

 

I’m afraid that the high technology will be recognized as authentic but not accepted officially, as the national expert committee on nuclear issues repeatedly recommends that the tritiated water should be emitted to the Pacific Ocean based on previous theories. In addition, a clandestine report of western intelligence pointed out to me that the tritiated water has been already released to the ocean without any public acceptance. This is also quite typical in the Japanese bureaucratic society: “Facts precede decisions.”

 

fukushima_nuclearpowerplant2

 

Anyway… In the middle of February in the next year, the final decision will be made on whether Japan will survive or not. May the God bless Japan and the world’s future generations.

 

Do You Know Where You’re Going to?

no_birds_sing

(Photo by no_birds_sing)

 

At the dawn of 2015, I’m thinking of two scenarios which will be realized between now and the very near future. In the previous post, I touched upon the scenario called “Bloody Christmas Eve”. That simply means everything will be upside down in the financial market plus world affairs from the forthcoming Christmas Eve, December 24. This thesis results from usual mixture between my qualitative analysis and quantitative one thanks to my closest alliance partner, Mr. HKD.

 

Nevertheless, we’re still wondering whether there is another option in terms of the next sea change to be seen towards the beginning of 2015. This is based on the fact the Russian current crisis is obviously over, while Putin and Obama seem to have agreed on some essential issues on the globe as follows:

 

-Russia gave up Cuba, which now declared to start negotiation to normalize its relationship with US. The Cuban Missile Crisis finally ends.

-Instead of securing Cuba as its sphere of influence, US had to accept a Russian and Iranian demand to make peace with the Assad regime in Syria.

 

These are related not only to geopolitics, but to the global macro (=in- and outflow of capital on the globe) so far as the Vatican is concerned. As for the former at least, the previous and current Popes have never hesitated to show their endeavor to reconcile US and Cuba. And as you know, whenever the Vatican moves, money goes around. Thanks to massive investment from US, Cuba will flourish economically as its safe haven.

 

Yes, it’s a kind of the famous “Monroe Doctrine” the Obama administration is now revitalizing: “European friends, don’t touch the American continent. We don’t care yours (= other continents).” Based on a highly confidential information I’ve got in a closed human network in Tokyo, the House of Rothschild decided to focus on the South America as its safe haven from now on. Everything US does leads and will lead to contributions to realize this project. Let’s see what will occur in this regard.

 

Getting back to the Middle East, US recognition of the Assad regime as the authentic regime automatically expels poor rebels against it out of the Syrian border. For them, there is indeed only one option left: Joining the ISIS to fight against the Westerners.

 

The point is the so-called Islamic State obviously begins to target the Israelis: The main stream of its military force gradually goes south, while its colleagues are said to have settled down in the Sinai Peninsula with silent approval of the Egyptians. In the course of time, they will begin a pincer attack against Israel. PM Netanyahu in Tel Aviv will be forced to decide whether he should attack them preemptively, even before the general election in March, 2015.

The above mentioned south stream of the ISIS implies it additionally intends to invade Saudi Arabia. Once such an offensive will begin, it will escalate into the WWIII everybody in the world fears of. Please don’t forget an open source saying the ISIS could have acquired WMDs in the Syrian and Iraqi borders. Because the Israelis and Saudis are in the same boot in this mean, they will de facto collaborate to eliminate the Islamic State even without their mutual diplomatic relationship. Anyway, the New Middle East will emerge…

 

As the loyal proxy of the Westerners, Jordan now put a proposal on the table of UN: The Israelis shall withdraw from all the colonies they illegally keep occupying since 1967. Now, the issue is whether Israel will obey the golden principle; “The sooner, the better”.

 

In another battle field called “OPEC”, the Iranians, a hidden proxy of US and UK, begins to cry for the limitation of oil production. Now, the time has come when the Saudis have to make a final decision: Whether they should compromise to let the oil price soar moderately for the sake of Russian and US oil-based economies, in order to secure their own safety against the ISIS.

 

To wrap up, it is the price of gold that matters: If it will go up simultaneously with indices of WTI and DOW, that means the WWIII will have begun in ME as described above. In fear of Islamic terrorist attacks in both US and Europe, USD and EUR will dramatically collapse, while JPY as the safe haven will rocket. Equities of all the advanced economies will fall dramatically. (PLAN A)

 

If the further soar of equities and WTI will precede the gold booming, you have to understand another scenario is needed: By pressure of the Westerners, the Saudis will be forced to ask other OPEC members to limit oil production. In this case, the ISIS will attack only both Israel and certain “Jewish-dominated” cities in US. USD will dramatically fall, and that will lead to massive appreciation of JPY, for example. All the equities in the advanced economies will collapse, even though the oil price will keep high. Of course, Putin will survive. (PLAN B)

 

I myself keep eyes on what Gorbachev said to the public recently: “US needs Perestroika.” Other than in 2001 (“9.11”), a series of Islamic terrorist attacks will arouse sympathy of greater part of US citizens on the street. For them, it’s not the IS but the US traditional regime as such that matters. Russia and China will take advantage of this sea change in the US public opinion and secretly support a crusade for “New America”. US will be demolished as USSR was done in 1990s. The world order especially in terms of the global macro will be drastically changed.

 

Well, guys, the final question to you is: “Do you know where you’re going to?”

 

 

Warning! Bloody Christmas Eve Is Approaching.

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After having stayed in Shanghai all though this week, I’ve just got back to HANEDA Int’l Airport in Tokio, my hometown. This time, I paid a visit to Beijing, Yantai and Shanghai (even twice!) and met lots of friends and colleagues. Actually, I had never gathered so many visit cards during previous visits to foreign countries on business as I did this time. This is the very reason why the people are still feeling attracted by China, the land of future. Even though everybody including the Chinese themselves is quite aware of difficulties to overcome, he/she never gives up and continue to dream of success in the continent.

 

Especially in Shanghai, I felt a breeze of “Zeitgeist”, since infrastructure in many fields are obviously standards which manage to satisfy the westerners. It was 1999 when I stepped in this city for the first time, which was once called “city of enigma (魔都)” before WWII. There was indeed only few infrastructure, for example, only one subway line, which you could make use of at that time. The famous landscape of “BUND” was being reconstructed, and you could find only an oddly shaped television tower beyond the Hangpu River. Nevertheless, “Time flies like an arrow”, and the new economic zone “Pudong” is full of skyscrapers. There, nobody believes in the end of China’s prosperity. Having fully forgot shadow of the Cultural Revolution in 1960s and 70s, which was originally started in Shanghai, everybody simply keeps “China dream”. “At least for four or five years, China’s economic development will continue and its strength will be shown to all over the world”, says one of young and talented Chinese lawyers I met this time.

 

shanghai_20141202

 

Well, it’s true that China as a whole would survive to such an extent as we can expect right now. In addition, to keep our dreams brings much more to our daily life than being pessimistic. However, there IS a one simple fact you may never forget: China is not isolated but totally involved in the current turbulence of financial capitalism.

 

As I correctly predicted in the previous post on this official English weblog, the world stock market began to collapse exactly from December 8, the last Monday. The trend emerged in NY at first, and was expanded to other markets such as the Tokyo stock market. In Spite of de facto PKO (= price keeping operation) by the ABE administration just before Japan’s general election on December 14, which of course led to a little bit recovery of the Nikkei 225 index on Friday, the situation as a whole was never changed. The NY stock market kept collapsing mercilessly as shown below:

 

dow_20141213

 

Now, the time has finally come. From Yokohama, my closest alliance partner, Mr. HKD, just sent me his latest statistical analysis of various data in the world market. Based on his legendary quantitative analysis, he pointed out that the trends would be dramatically changed on December 24, 2014 in NY. In accordance with this result, I as expert of qualitative analysis would say a historical, and irreversible collapse will be caused in one of the ways as follows:

 

*Scenario A: “Shale turns out to be the devil”

– Due to continuous fall of WTI, financial products related to high yields bonds issued by US companies dedicated to Shale oil/gas will burst to cause a dramatic domino effect in the world market. To rescue them, the USG will be forced to do financial assistance, which will then lead to the tipping point of its sovereign debt (or at least dollar) crisis.

 

*Scenario B: “Declaration of the WWIII”

– The so-called “ISIS” successfully commits a series of terrorist attacks in Europe and US, and declared a total war against the western coalition. The Obama administration, which closely coordinates behind the door with those who are directly involved including the leadership of the ISIS, will automatically decide to send a ground troop to ME. Hereby, US will evade the above shown scenario A and its default.

 

Facing either “A” or “B”, a violent reversal of the global market, which the BIS trumpeted since the last autumn, will suddenly emerge. To make all the things simple, I would say at this juncture, “Everything will be upside down”: Appreciation of JPY, WTI and gold, while depreciation of USD, stocks in advanced markets. This is what I’ve been calling a typical phenomenon of the “Le Chatelier’s principle”.

 

Once this will happen, money will seeks a safe haven and be squeezed to Shanghai, I suppose. Will the PRC be the ultimate winner of this end game? I would say, “NO”. Why? You can find the answer when you remember the ridiculous visit of Xi Jinping not to the US President but to the Japanese Emperor Akihito just before his inauguration to State President of the PRC. Or you may remember the fact that wealthy Chinese investors und families have been rushing for JPY by selling Renminbi massively. The more highly the PRC’s economy is developing, the more JPY will be needed and stored by the Chinese. Unless China’s economy will be backed by the Japanese, nobody including the Chinese themselves will believe in its future.

 

My final question to you: “Who’s the final winner at the end of this game?” Bloody Christmas Eve will show you the answer. Stay tuned and take care.

 

On December 8, another “Black Monday” will have come. History repeats itself.

NYC_20141205

After having read my previous posts on this English weblog, you must now wonder I just made mistakes to anticipate our common future. There are indeed several issues you can point out, as follows:

Appreciation of JPY never occurs. On the contrary, its massive “depreciation” has been happening obviously.

Crude oil never soars. Instead, its price has continued to decline.

Collapse of US economy and its default are never realized.  Based on official statistics, US has succeeded to maintain its hegemony on the globe.

“Pax Japonica” never appears. Japan led by PM Abe has been getting involved more and more into troubles which can be never solved.

 

 

Well, dear readers and friends, don’t hurry. From the ancient time, it has been said, “Haste makes waste”. What you should do right now is to correctly understand why all the things are delayed. Furthermore, you have to check out the following “Early Warning Sings (EWS)” which help you to anticipate the very near future:

“Gold carried trade” was apparently stopped on November 6. Once it was suspended globally, gold price begun to boost. To set off all the previous trades of this kind, related investors urgently need a persuasive reason to bid up.

Almost the same issue is currently emerging around crude oil. WTI has been kept low, because OPEC led by the Saudis never decided to cut off its oil production. Every day, global media reports the on-going “oil battle” among US, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, don’t forget they are all investors of state size. Once they’ll become fully aware of the fact “oil carried trade” won’t make money any more, they will just quit the game. Instead of that, they will start a new game to let WTI boost. Its name is “War Game”.

 

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– Nikkei index in the Japanese stock market keeps to soar thanks to dramatic depreciation of JPY against USD. Officially saying, USD is being appreciated because US economy is in a “good shape”. Well, baby, why have social unrests and riots been increased in US, beginning with the case in Ferguson and NYC? It’s not statistics you can change afterwards, but the real economy that matters. The fact smart investors secretly evade to trade with USD, is shown above. Still, do you believe the US economy is in a “good shape”?

– The Nikkei index soars because of the forthcoming general election to be voted on December 14 in Japan. That’s all. It’s not economy but politics that matters in this context. Every investor participating in the Japanese stock market now, is quite aware of its stock price manipulated by GOJ. As soon as the political season will be over, there will be no reason for PM Abe to maintain this policy.

 

jpyUSD_225

 

Now, you have to recall the message of BIS, saying “violent reversal of the global market”.  By applying the principle of Le Chatelier I mentioned several times beforehand to the current reality, you can imagine how the future will look like: Everything that has soared so far, will be automatically go down, while everything at lower level will dramatically boost. Candidates of the both categories are following:

– Will be up: JPY, gold, crude oil, and long-term interest rate in developed countries except for US

– Will be down: USD, stock prices in every advanced and developing country

 

The question is, of course, “WHEN”. Along with my closest alliance partner, Mr. HKD, I support the proposition that another “Black Monday” will have come on December 8: The next Monday. Put-call-ration in NY stock market already exceeded 1.8 point on December 2, compared with 1.01 point as the mean value in the last three years. It simply shows sooooo many investors await historical collapse of the world markets. Once it will happen, we’ll proceed to the next step together.

Stay tuned…

(*If you want to know much more, don’t miss my latest voice letter dated December 5, 2014. Sorry, this is ONLY in Japanese.)